Plurus Strategies Weekly Update: Gun Control, COVID Aid, Competitiveness Package, and Elections

Gun Control 

Tuesday’s mass shooting at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas that left two adults and 19 children dead took over the news cycle this week. The slaughter of innocent children and teachers follows last week’s mass shooting targeting African American shoppers at a grocery store in Buffalo, New York. President Joe Biden was quick to implore action on gun control, as these two high profile incidents prompted questions about whether Congress might finally take action. 

This week, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) attempted to bring the Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act to the floor. The House passed the bill last week in response to the mass shooting in Buffalo. Leader Schumer indicated that the bill could serve as a vehicle for gun-related amendments. However, Republicans blocked the bill from consideration. Leader Schumer also initiated the Rule 14 process for two House-passed bills that would close loopholes in background check procedures for gun purchases. Despite this move, Leader Schumer advised his colleagues not to expect a gun control vote on the floor any time soon, blaming Republicans for the Senate’s inability to muster 60 votes for passage. Instead, Leader Schumer deputized Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), who has been an active gun control advocate since the 2012 Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting, to attempt to negotiate a bipartisan bill that could overcome the filibuster.  

Most Democrats are skeptical that Sen. Murphy’s efforts will produce legislation that sees action, especially as members of their own caucus continue to oppose the elimination of the filibuster. While Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) has expressed interest in participating in talks on gun safety, Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) has indicated he will be active in exploring solutions related to background checks, and Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Mike Braun (R-IN) have signaled openness to trying to get something done on red flag laws, one Democrat sadly pointed out that the debate on gun control probably ended ten years ago when Congress failed to act after Sandy Hook. Others have expressed concern that any momentum on gun control will fade over the Memorial Day recess, although House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) has announced the House will vote on legislation nationalizing red flag laws after the break.  

If Congress strikes out legislatively, the Biden Administration could consider new executive orders on gun safety. Such administrative proposals might seek to crack down on unlicensed sellers and prevent certain bulk purchases of firearms.  

War in Ukraine 

On Saturday, President Biden signed the $40 billion Ukraine aid package passed by Congress at the end of last week. Though this this is a sizeable bill, key lawmakers are already predicting that additional Ukraine aid will be needed. Speaking at the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Switzerland early this week, Sens. Patrick Leahy (D-VT), Bob Menendez (D-NJ), and Roger Wicker (R-MS) all suggested that Ukraine is likely to make additional requests for U.S. assistance, which they indicated would likely be met with bipartisan support. 

The next most immediate order of business for the Senate will be the approval of Finland’s and Sweden’s membership in NATO. Earlier this week, Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Tillis led a letter to President Biden signed by 82 Senators urging an expedited process to advance Sweden’s and Finland’s entry into the alliance. Today, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted on a bipartisan resolution expressing support for both countries’ NATO membership. For Finland and Sweden to officially join NATO, the Senate will need to ratify a formal treaty, which we are hearing could be up for a floor vote just before the August recess. We are already being told that floor debate on the treaty could be very time consuming, as certain Members could aim to drag out floor proceedings. In other words, we could see a repeat of Sen. Rand Paul’s (R-KY) antics that held up the most recent Ukraine aid package. 

While the Senate has now shifted its focus to expanding NATO, the House continues to find ways to demonstrate its support for Ukraine. Earlier this week, Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) and Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) traveled to Ukraine, making them the first Members of Congress to visit the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv since its reopening after being closed for nearly three months following the onset of the Russian invasion.  

Meanwhile the Biden Administration continues to tighten the screws on Russian sanctions. This week, the Treasury Department issued notice that it will not renew a license to allow Russia to keep paying its debtholders through American banks. With the license set to expire this week, a Russian default on debt since for the first time since the Bolshevik Revolution appears inevitable. In total, the Russian Government owes about $20 billion worth of bonds, mostly in dollars, and it owes about $500 million in interest payments over the next month. 

There were several multilateral gatherings earlier this week aimed at ramping up support for Ukraine. At the end of last week, finance ministers from the G7 met and pledged to deliver $19.8 billion in aid to Ukraine this year. Additionally, on Monday, the Pentagon hosted more than 40 countries for a virtual Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting to discuss Ukraine’s ongoing needs for military equipment. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin provided opening remarks and met with Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov along the margins of the meeting, which resulted in 20 countries committing additional security assistance for Ukraine. The next meeting of the Contact Group will take place in person on June 15 to coincide with the NATO Defense Ministerial in Brussels.  

In addition to multilateral efforts to arm Ukraine, the international community is pressing for action to reopen the Russian-blocked port of Odesa to allow for export of 20 million tons of trapped grain. World leaders continue to call attention to the fact that Ukraine’s contributions of wheat to the global supply chain are necessary to avoid famine and political unrest in other places around the globe. Also this week, the first Russian soldier was sentenced to life in prison in Ukraine’s first war crimes trial, raising the possibility of more war crimes trials against Russian soldiers for atrocities committed since the start of the Russian invasion.  

On the ground in Ukraine, Russian forces continued to advance in the eastern Donbas region after declaring full control of Mariupol. The city of Sievierodonetsk, the main city under Ukrainian control in Luhansk province, saw heavy shelling, while the city of Slovyansk in Donetsk province saw the resumption of fighting. In a sign that the war will drag on, Russian lawmakers passed legislation aimed at strengthening the Russian army. Putin also announced that he would be fast-tracking Russian citizenship for residents of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine, which are currently under Russian control. 

COVID Aid 

Republicans continue to hammer Democrats on “the three i’s”: immigration, inflation, and infant formula. Unfortunately, COVID infections are still not topping the priority list, despite more Americans at risk due to rising cases in many parts of the country.  

Late Friday, a federal judge in Louisiana blocked the Biden Administration’s plans to left Title 42 immigration restrictions on Monday. As a reminder, the Trump-era policy has been used to expel migrants and asylum seekers at the southern border, citing the COVID pandemic. The district court judge in Louisiana ruled that the restrictions must stay in place until the lawsuit filed by 24 states to block the policy from being rescinded is resolved by the courts. The Department of Justice (DOJ) has indicated it will appeal the decision. However, the case will now head to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, which leans heavily conservative. 

While some have questioned if the recent court proceedings might persuade Republicans to lighten up on their demand for a vote on a Title 42 amendment to the $10 billion COVID bill, it is becoming increasingly clear the ruling will not break the logjam. This may be true because Title 42 appears to be popular with voters and makes for good politics for Republicans.  

The path forward for COVID assistance remains unclear. Ideally, Democrats would like to handle the issues of COVID aid and Title 42 separately, although linking the two has seemed to play well for Republicans, so we do not see the GOP changing its position. Democrats could hold a vote on Title 42, potentially forcing vulnerable Democrats to publicly break with president. This approach seems to be favored by Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL). If Democrats choose this strategy, the floor debate on the COVID package and Tittle 42 could appear at the top of the agenda for the next work period.  

Alternatively, Democrats may still be interested in trying to negotiate a border security supplemental. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has suggested it may need as much as $2 billion to tackle the migrant surge at the border. We do not see Republicans willing to agree on a border spending bill as the solution for addressing the influx of migrants at the border. For one, the delays encountered in passing the Ukraine supplemental and more COVID assistance demonstrate how difficult it is to pass spending bills outside the normal appropriations process, especially in an environment where there is increasing pressure to reign in government spending. Republicans also fear they could be tricked into supporting a package that funnels money into administrative accounts rather than actually beefing up border security.  

Given the current disagreements over immigration policy, we are starting to hear it is possible that COVID relief slips to the lame duck. In the meantime, we anticipate the administration will continue to message that additional resources are needed for vaccines, testing, therapeutics, and future pandemic preparedness. The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has also warned that without Congressional action, U.S. contributions to global vaccine efforts would grind to a halt in August. 

USICA/America COMPETES Act Conference 

This week, Sen. Todd Young (R-IN), one of the original authors of the Senate-passed U.S. Innovation and Competition Act (USICA) and a lead conferee, expressed his view that a deal on a compromise bill could be reached next month. This timeline would track with pressure that Leader Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) have been applying on negotiators to finalize the conference report by the July 4 recess. Despite the chatter about the possibility of the conference committee making significant progress in June, we continue to believe talk about July 4 is more of a tactic aimed at ensuring passage of a final bill before the August recess. 

One issue that is likely to delay the conference report is ongoing disagreement over how to handle tax proposals. As you know, Sens. Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Mike Crapo (R-ID) have been pushing to airdrop the FABS Act into the conference report, a move that Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX) has vocally opposed due to concerns that it could open the floodgates for other tax proposals that could slow progress on the bill. The bill would create a semiconductor investment tax credit. We are also increasingly hearing there may be interest in resurrecting an expired R&D expensing provision that would allow companies to fully deduct R&D costs in the year they occur rather than writing them off over five years.  

We are also beginning to pick up that Republicans may have concerns about spending levels in the competitiveness package. Beyond the looming midterm elections already making it difficult for Republicans to support the bill, ongoing concerns about inflation could further depress GOP support. Additionally, a potential Build Back Better (BBB)-like reconciliation bill that would necessarily have to move before September 30 could also amplify Republican concerns about spending. Democratic conferees appear to understand there must be some House Republican support for the conference report in order to shore up at least ten GOP votes in the Senate. 

BBB/Reconciliation 

Last week, we heard that Leader Schumer had set Memorial Day as the target date for reaching an agreement with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) on a reconciliation framework. It now seems that negotiations are unlikely to conclude this week. However, we are hearing from Leader Schumer’s staff that there might be a deal with Sen. Manchin to move reconciliation forward as soon as next week. This would track with rumors that Leader Schumer and Sen. Manchin may already have a handshake agreement on a topline number for the package. If there is a framework in the next week or two, Senate leadership staffers are confident this would allow enough time for writing and scoring a bill so that votes could be backed up against either the July 4 or August recess. 

Based on Sen. Manchin’s public comments, it appears he would be willing to support a package that lowers prescription drug costs, addresses climate change, reduces the deficit through tax reform, and tackles inflation. However, most Democrats feel out of the loop on the specifics of the package as the talks between Leader Schumer and Sen. Manchin have been kept a close hold. This is likely intentional, with Democrats learning their lesson late last year about too much from negotiations between Sen. Manchin and the White House leaking out from behind closed doors. Though Democrats admit they are nervous that reconciliation could become a missed opportunity, most are trying to stay optimistic and are telling us that no big news out of the Schumer/Manchin talks is good news.  

Our instincts tell us that if there is a reconciliation bill, it is almost certain to include prescription drug pricing reform. The savings generated by drug pricing provisions could be used to pay for continuing Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, which are due to expire on December 31. As you might recall, Democrats enacted enhanced subsidies last march as part of the American Rescue Plan (ARP), which resulted in 2.5 million more Obamacare enrollees. Allowing subsidies to lapse would subject 13 million Americans to premium increases. The continuation of ACA subsidies is expected to come with a price tag in the range of $70-$100 billion, adding to the expenses of clean energy tax breaks that are still thought to be in play for a reconciliation package. If Sen. Manchin continues to insist on parity between spending and deficit reduction, the Schumer/Manchin negotiations will have to identify additional pay-fors. 

Sen. Manchin continues to publicly express support for undoing aspects of the GOP’s 2017 corporate tax reform bill to raise revenue. However, Sen. Sinema remains opposed to increasing taxes on businesses. We are hearing that a tax increase on millionaires is a popular idea within the broader Democratic caucus, but Sen. Manchin has been cagey about his position. For this reason, we believe that Leader Schumer has kept the gamut of tax provisions considered for BBB on the table for reconciliation. 

Appropriations 

Fiscal year 2023 (FY23) budget hearings continued this week with testimony from USAID Administrator Samantha Power, Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro, Marine Corps Commandant David Berger, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Director Christopher Wray, Secret Service Director James Murray, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Administrator Deanne Criswell, and National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Administrator Jill Hruby. Additionally, multiple House Appropriations subcommittees held Member Day hearings for off-committee Members to present on their priorities for this year’s appropriations process.  

On Tuesday, Sens. Leahy and Richard Shelby (R-AL) met to discuss next steps on the FY23 spending cycle and the Senate Appropriations Committee’s timeline for considering bills this summer. The retiring Senate appropriators indicated that they will convene another meeting with their House counterparts, Reps. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) and Kay Granger (R-TX), after the Memorial Day break to try to nail down topline numbers for defense and non-defense spending. If an agreement can be reached, the Senate Appropriations Committee may begin marking up their bills in July. Rep. DeLauro has already announced the House Appropriations Committee intends to hold its markups in June, with the goal of floor action after the July 4 recess. 

It is possible that earmarks could help grease the wheels for an endgame on FY23 appropriations before the end of this Congress. According to the House Appropriations Committee, 344 Members have submitted earmark requests for this year’s spending cycle. The committee permitted Members to submit 15 earmark requests, up from ten last year. As a reminder, the FY22 omnibus appropriations bill included $4,975 earmarks totaling $9.7 billion. 

On Wednesday, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its outlook on the federal budget and the U.S. economy, delivering good and bad news with new projections on interest rates, debt, deficit, gross domestic product (GDP), spending, revenue, and inflation. The CBO analysis finds that the federal budget deficit will shrink dramatically this year due to increased tax revenue and the expiration of pandemic relief programs. While CBO predicts faster than average economic growth in the near-term, it also cautions that absent policy changes, the deficit will hit new records for 110 percent of GDP by 2032. Additionally, the CBO report suggests that inflation could remain throughout 2022 with prices unlikely to fall back to targeted levels until 2024. CBO will also release its analysis of the president’s FY23 budget and a longer-term budget outlook this July. These documents are likely to shape the FY23 appropriations process. 

Another issue that might influence FY23 appropriations talks is the debt limit. Current forecasts project the Treasury could surpass the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, requiring Congress to pass legislation to either raise or suspend the debt limit, as soon as December. Depending on the timing for when the FY23 spending bills cross the finish line, appropriations and the debt limit could once again collide. If both issues are not wrapped up this year, they could be among the first items on the to-do list for the 118th Congress.  

Political Tidbits 

Retirements 

Even before this week’s primaries, the picture of who will not be returning to the 118th Congress became a bit clearer. Rep. Anthony Delgado (D-NY) made his retirement official on Wednesday and was sworn in as New York’s Lieutenant Governor the same day. Last week’s primary in Oregon’s 5th District has not yet been officially called, but incumbent Democrat Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-OR) is behind his progressive challenger by almost 20 points. Voters in Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, Minnesota, and Texas also caused waves on Tuesday. In the latest incumbent vs. incumbent primary, moderate Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-GA) lost to progressive Rep. Lucy McBath (D-GA). Here is the breakdown of Members not returning in 2023: 

• 1 Senate Democrat: 1 full committee chair (Appropriations)  

• 5 Senate Republicans: 5 full committee ranking members (Appropriations; Armed Services; Banking; Health Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP); Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs (HSGAC); and Rules)  

• 35 House Democrats: 4 full committee chairs (Budget; Ethics; Science, Space, and Technology; and Transportation and Infrastructure)  

• 22 House Republicans: 2 full committee ranking members (Homeland Security and Ways and Means)  

Elections 

Five states held elections on Tuesday with voters heading to the polls in Arkansas, Alabama, and Georgia; a special election in Minnesota; and a runoff in Texas. This week’s primaries gave two indications: former President Donald Trump's influence may be waning in the GOP and there will be more progressive Democrats in the 118th Congress. 

Alabama Primary 

Alabama has long been known as a red state. Still, Tuesday’s primaries saw notable intraparty races for open seats in the House and Senate and eight challengers against Republican incumbent Gov. Kay Ivey.  

• Senate: In the race to replace retiring Sen. Shelby, Tuesday night’s GOP primary saw former Shelby Chief of Staff Katie Britt, businessman Mike Durant, and Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL) facing off. Britt had a significant lead over the others in the last few days, but without either of the top two candidates gaining a majority, Britt and Rep. Brooks are headed to a June 21 runoff. President Trump had endorsed Rep. Brooks initially, but rescinded his endorsement earlier this spring, after the Congressman said it was time to get past the 2020 election. Will Boyd, who unsuccessfully ran for a House seat in 2016 and was the Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2018, won the Democratic nomination on Tuesday, but the state is solidly red and he will face an uphill battle.

• AL-05: Powered by a $1 million loan to his campaign raised in the latest campaign finance reporting period, Madison County Commission Chair Dale Strong, who had been leading Republican candidates, failed to gain the majority vote needed to secure the nomination. He is headed for a runoff against former Huntsville City Schools Superintendent Casey Wardynski to fill the seat left vacant by Rep. Brooks. Whoever wins the GOP nomination will face Kathy Warner-Stanton, who won the Democratic nomination. The seat is being rated as solidly Republican and is expected to remain that way come November.

• Gubernatorial: Incumbent Gov. Ivey defeated eight challengers in the Republican primary, including Tim James, a businessman and son of one of the state’s former governors, and Lindy Blanchard, a former ambassador in the Trump Administration. The Democratic primary winner is still undetermined, but in the fall, Gov. Ivey will face the winner of the June 21 Democratic runoff between State Sen. Malika Sanders-Fortier and activist Yolanda Flowers.

Arkansas Primary 

Arkansas’ map has remained solidly red and Tuesday’s primaries showed once again the strength of the GOP within the state. We tracked the following two races: 

• Senate: Former National Football League (NFL) player Jake Bequette was defeated by two-term incumbent Sen. John Boozman (R-AR) for the GOP nomination. Sen. Boozman was thought to have been in a tougher renomination battle, as Bequette was seen as a youthful challenger and received significant donations to his campaign, including $2.1 million from the Patriots Fund. Sen. Boozman entered the cycle with less than $1 million on hand. With endorsements from President Trump, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), and Republican gubernatorial candidate Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Sen. Boozman certainly did not take the race for granted, spending nearly $8 million so far. Although Natalie James, a realtor from Little Rock, won the Democratic nomination to challenge Sen. Boozman, the seat is solidly Republican and is expected to remain that way.

• Gubernatorial: Three years after leaving the White House, former Press Secretary Huckabee Sanders won the GOP nomination to replace term-limited incumbent Gov. Asa Hutchinson. Her father, Mike Huckabee, was governor of the state from 1996-2007. President Trump endorsed Huckabee Sanders back in January 2021 right after he left the White House. Democrats had five candidates to choose from, but Chris Jones, an ordained minister and nuclear engineer who earned a PhD in urban planning from MIT, ended up securing the Democratic nomination. Arkansas’ last Democratic governor, Mike Beebe, left office in 2015 due to term limits. However, polls show it will be difficult for any Democrat to make gains given GOP dominance within the state.

Georgia Primary 

Despite warnings about potential voter suppression, turnout in the Peach State’s primaries had already broken 2020 records by midday Tuesday. As a key swing state, Georgia’s election results shed light on the Republican party and the direction of the country. It was also the location of the feud between President Trump and incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp. Back in 2020, the former president had called for Kemp to refuse to certify the election results, which the governor rejected. President Trump endorsed 13 GOP primary candidates total, nearly two-thirds of the state’s primaries. Although five of the House incumbents he endorsed were on track to win, the primary outcomes may be a sign of President Trump’s waning endorsement power. While the former president’s influence may have had strong sway months ago, we anticipate a stronger magnifying glass on its importance going forward.  

• Senate: As expected, Trump-endorsed Herschel Walker coasted to victory and will face Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (R-GA) in what is already one of the most watched races of midterm season. During Georgia’s 2020 special election, Sen. Warnock defeated incumbent Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) by two percentage points, and he and his colleague, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA), became the first Democrats elected to the Senate from Georgia since 2000. Despite winning the Democratic nomination this year by a landslide, Sen. Warnock faces a serious challenge in the general election. The GOP challenger already had significant name recognition, and many Republican strategists noted he likely did not even need President Trump’s endorsement to secure the GOP nomination. While Walker could be met with some challenges in the coming months regarding allegations of domestic violence and scrutiny over his business records, his momentum and the Republican-leaning environment will mean the election will be a nail-biter.

• GA-06: After redistricting led to the 6th District becoming lean Republican, Democratic incumbent Rep. McBath set out to run in the newly redrawn 7th District. Rep. McBath flipped this longtime Republican-held House seat in 2018. Democratic primary candidate Bob Christian won the nomination. However, the two GOP primary candidates are headed for a runoff. Trump-endorsed Dr. Rich McCormick and attorney Jake Evans will face off in June. Although McCormick had originally planned to try for the 7th District, where he was GOP nominee in 2020, he opted to run in the 6thfollowing redistricting.

• GA-07: Rep. McBath defeated Rep. Bourdeaux in a fierce incumbent vs. incumbent Democratic primary. Just as Rep. McBath had flipped a district in 2018, Rep. Bordeaux was the only Democrat to flip a House seat in 2020. However, the moderate Blue Dog Democrat was not seen as the frontrunner after new district lines were reconfigured to include a more progressive electorate. Republicans Michael Corbin and Mark Gonsalves are headed for a runoff to secure the GOP nomination. However, the seat is likely to be an easy win for Democrats in November.

• GA-10: Incumbent Rep. Jody Hice (R-GA) gave up his House seat to run in the Republican primary for Georgia Secretary of State, a race he lost on Tuesday. Former State Rep. Vernon Jones and Mike Collins, son of former Rep. Mac Collins, are headed to a runoff for the Republican nomination, and Tabitha Johnson-Green and Jessica Allison Fore will be in the Democratic runoff. The seat is rated solidly Republican.

• Gubernatorial: Former Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) secured the endorsement of President Trump but ultimately lost his bid to unseat incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp. The Governor has spent months reinforcing his GOP base with a variety of policy actions, including pushing through an open-carry gun law, a restrictive abortion law, a measure that allows school to ban transgender students from competing in gendered sports teams in line with their gender identity, and another measure that bans the teaching of “divisive concepts” about race in public schools. The general sees two familiar names pitted against each other for the Governor’s mansion again. Gov. Kemp will face former Georgia House of Representatives Minority Leader Stacey Abrams, who won the Democratic nomination unopposed.

Minnesota Special Election 

• MN-01: Eight Democrats and ten Republicans were on the ballot for a special election to finish the term of late Republican Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R-MN), who passed away in February. One of the GOP candidates was Jennifer Carnahan, Rep. Hagedorn’s widow. However, groups on the right, including the Protect Freedom PAC, which is connected to Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), aligned behind State Rep. Jeremy Munson. Ultimately, former State Rep. and Trump Administration official Brad Finstad secured the Republican nomination. He will face former Hormel CEO Jeff Ettinger, who won the Democratic nomination. The special general election in August will determine who will finish the last few months of Rep. Hagedorn’s term. However, the district is being rated as solidly red. Finstad is likely to see a boost in his chances to win a full term later in November if he wins the special election.

Texas Runoff 

The runoffs in Texas had a dark cloud over them as a shooting at Robb Elementary School unfolded on Tuesday afternoon. The 28th District in the southern part of the state, which saw an intraparty rematch between incumbent Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) and progressive Jessica Cisneros, borders the 23rd District where the shooting occurred. While the Cuellar-Cisneros race had a focus on abortion and immigration over the last few weeks, coverage of the election results was dominated by another prominent policy issue: gun control. Rep. Cuellar is well-known for his moderate stances, including his support for gun rights. This race, along with those nearby in the 15th and the Dallas-based 30th Congressional Districts, are a show of the Democratic Party’s establishment versus progressive wings and provide a gauge of support for each side as voters reach the midpoint of President Biden’s term in office. While the 30thDistrict is solidly Democratic, the 28th and 15th are considered more competitive. The GOP will narrow in on these progressive victories as part of their efforts to flip the House. 

• TX-15: As of Thursday morning, only 50 percent of the votes for the Democratic runoff had been counted. Michelle Vallejo, who is backed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), holds an extremely close lead over Ruben Ramirez. The South Texas district is currently held by Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX), who announced he would run in a neighboring district after this seat became redder during redistricting. In recent weeks, a Rio Grande Valley nonprofit was accused of violating campaign finance law for how it backed Vallejo. However, the ongoing complaint seems to not have impacted the outcome. If Vallejo secures the nomination, she will face GOP nominee Monica De La Cruz, who won her primary outright. De La Cruz, an insurance agent, is favored to win in November, and her chances are even higher if she faces the more progressive Vallejo as her opponent rather than the more moderate Ramirez.

• TX-28: Facing off for a third time, Democratic incumbent Rep. Cuellar holds a narrow lead over progressive challenger Cisneros. Rep. Cuellar declared victory on Wednesday, but the election results have not been finalized. The highly contested race had drawn endorsements from national figures. Rep. Cuellar enjoyed backing from House Democratic leadership, while Cisneros received backing from Sens. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). Following the leak of the SCOTUS opinion, Rep. Cuellar’s anti-abortion stance was given a major spotlight. President Biden carried the redrawn seat by seven percentage points in 2020, but the seat has been rated as competitive with a Democratic-lean. Rep. Cuellar’s win will likely boost Democratic prospects of retaining the district. Rep. Cuellar will face Cassy Garcia who won the GOP nomination. Garcia served most recently as Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-TX) deputy state director and was also appointed by President Trump in July of 2020 to serve as commissioner for the White House Hispanic Prosperity Initiative.

• TX-30: State Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas), the frontrunner who was backed by retiring Democratic incumbent Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-TX) and 19 of her fellow Texas House Democrats, won the runoff. She has been active in Dallas over the past decade but exploded on the political scene in 2020 with her visibility in social justice movements. She was also one of the Texas State House Democrats who participated in the walkout to stall a controversial elections bill that ultimately became law. James Rodgers, a job recruiter, secured the GOP nomination. The district is being rated as solidly Democratic and is expected to remain that way.

On Wednesday, it was announced that the Pennsylvania Republican primary for the open Senate seat has triggered a runoff. We won’t know for several days whether Dr. Mehmet Oz or Dave McCormick is victorious.  

No primaries are scheduled for next week, but we’ve got our eye on June’s schedule including several races of note: 

June 7 

• California: The Golden State’s open primaries mean the top two vote-getters in each race will advance to November. Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) is on the ballot for the first time in this role, having been appointed to fill now-Vice President Kamala Harris’ seat. At the local level, Rep. Karen Bass (D-CA) faces a slew of candidates to be the next Mayor of Los Angeles, including businessman and former-Republican-turned-Democrat Rick Caruso.

• Iowa

• Mississippi

• Montana

• New Jersey

• New Mexico

• South Dakota

June 11 

• Special Election in Alaska: The special top-four primary will be held to replace the late Republican Rep. Don Young (R-AK).

June 14 

• Maine

• North Dakota

• Nevada

• South Carolina

• Special Election in Texas: The general election to fill the rest of retired Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela’s (D-TX) term will be held.

June 21 

• Virginia

• Washington, DC

• Special Election in Alabama: Primary run-off.

• Special Election in Arkansas: Primary run-off.

• Special Election in Georgia: Primary run-off.

June 23 

• South Dakota Republican Convention

June 28 

• Colorado: Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-CO) is retiring in the 7th District, while the 8th District was newly created.

• Illinois: Two incumbent vs. incumbent primaries are set for this day: one between Democratic Reps. Sean Casten (D-IL) and Marie Newman (D-IL) and another between Republican Reps. Rodney Davis (R-IL) and Mary Miller (R-IL). The 1st and 17thDistricts have retiring Members, thus creating open seats, while the 3rd and 13thDistricts were newly created and are also therefore open.

• Oklahoma: In addition to the open 2nd District seat, the ballot also includes the special primary to replace soon-to-retire Republican Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK).

• Utah

• Special Election in Mississippi: Primary run-off from the June 7 election.

• Special Election in Nebraska: The general election to fill the rest of retired Republican Rep. Jeff Fortenberry’s (R-NE) term will be held.

• Special Election in South Carolina: Primary run-off from the June 14 election.

Redistricting 

New York’s 26 Congressional districts were finalized early Saturday morning, solidifying the scramble that began earlier last week. Democrats hold 19 of New York’s 27 seats and now face some highly competitive primaries. Although Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-NY) seemed to be headed for a race against Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY) in the 17th Congressional District, Rep. Jones has opted to run in an open seat south of his current one in the 10th Congressional District. The district is being rated as solidly Democratic. However, Rep. Jones faces a crowded race, including former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio and New York Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou. Manhattan Reps. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) and Jerry Nadler (D-NY), both longtime Congressional stalwarts and current committee chairs, will face each other in the 12th Congressional District, setting up yet another Member vs. Member primary in the Democratic party. The seat is also being rated as solidly Democratic. 

Republicans also saw a few shuffles. Rep. Chris Jacobs (R-NY) will run in recently retired Rep. Tom Reed’s (R-NY) district, while Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-NY) will run in Rep. Jacobs’ current district. The state’s primaries are on August 23, and overall, analysis indicates eight competitive primaries.