Plurus Strategies Weekly Update: Ukraine Assistance, COVID Aid, USICA/America COMPETES, & Other Activity in Washington
War in Ukraine
Over the weekend, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) led a Republican delegation to Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Joined by Sens. John Barrasso (R-WY), John Cornyn (R-TX), and Susan Collins (R-ME), the trip was intended to demonstrate bipartisan support for the Ukrainian people following an earlier trip led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and a recent visit by First Lady Jill Biden. During the meeting with President Zelensky, Leader McConnell provided assurances that Congress would pass an additional aid package. Meanwhile, President Zelensky urged the U.S. Government to further ramp up sanctions and designate Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. The Republican delegation also met with Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, where Leader McConnell indicated Congress could ratify Finland’s ascension to NATO before the August recess. Speaking of NATO, Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with his Ukrainian counterpart at a NATO meeting in Berlin, where he emphasized that more security assistance would be forthcoming.
After delays in the Senate, this week Congress finally cleared the $40 billion Ukraine aid package. The Senate passed the bill on an 86-11 vote this afternoon and President Joe Biden is expected to sign it as soon as this evening. Debate came down to the wire with the remaining authorized funds due to be exhausted today. Senate leadership had hoped to send the bill to President Biden for his signature last week. However, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) objected to allowing the bill to move by unanimous consent, demanding that his language requiring oversight of Ukraine assistance funding by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) be added to the base text of the bill. The Senate invoked cloture on the bill on Monday night, but Sen. Paul forced the Senate to use all the time allotted for floor debate, putting off final passage until today. The House approved the legislation on a 368-57 vote last week.
On Wednesday evening, the Senate voted unanimously to confirm Bridget Brink as U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine. Her confirmation coincides with the reopening of the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv following a three-month closure since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
On the ground, there are no signs of the conflict abating. Late last week, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and urged an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine. Unfortunately, there has been no break in the fighting. On Tuesday, Ukrainian troops retreated from Mariupol, ceding control of the city to Russia. The conflict is expected to continue in the weeks ahead.
COVID Aid
Although the country officially marked one million COVID deaths this week and cases are on the rise, Congress appears no closer to breaking the logjam to move additional pandemic funding forward. While the Biden Administration announced earlier this week that it was making additional free, at-home rapid tests available to American households, the White House took advantage of the opportunity to emphasize that without action in Congress, it will be unable to continue to make investments in domestic testing manufacturing capacity. The administration has also warned that as resources dwindle, it may be forced to restrict vaccine access to only the highest risk Americans. Procurement of additional antiviral therapeutics could also be delayed.
Democrats seem to disagree on the most strategic approach to debating the COVID package, especially as Republicans continue to demand a vote on an amendment to block the administration from lifting the Title 42 immigration policy that the Trump Administration used to turn away migrants and asylum seekers at the border. Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) has become increasingly vocal about the fact that vulnerable Democrats might be forced to take a tough vote if it is what is needed to pass supplemental appropriations to respond to COVID while also preparing for the next pandemic. One other option being weighed is a border security supplemental, which could potentially attract bipartisan support without forcing vulnerable Democrats to publicly break with the president.
There is no consistent read on the state of play among Republicans. Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) has been pessimistic about the COVID bill’s prospects, citing the lack of progress in talks on the supplemental. However, we have heard that Sen. John Thune (R-SD) has been more optimistic than some of his GOP colleagues on a COVID package coming together in the early June timeframe. He anticipates the overall package will remain in the $10 billion ballpark but has noted that pay-fors will need to be revisited and that there will need to be a vote on Title 42. Of course, this assumes that there is no judicial action and the Biden Administration proceeds with lifting the Trump-era immigration policy on May 23. Republicans in cycle, particularly those who have not had their primary yet, will not be supportive of the aid package, but others like retiring Sens. Shelby and Roy Blunt (R-MO) may vote in favor.
The one thing that is clear is that the COVID package is unlikely to move before the Memorial Day recess. One of our sources has said that if Congress cannot pass COVID aid in June, then it may not happen at all. The White House is recently out with messaging on a summer COVID surge, not just a fall/winter surge, which may be part of the administration’s effort to ramp up the urgency of getting COVID aid across the finish line in June.
As the broader strategy for advancing COVID aid continues to be debated, this week the Senate attempted to vote on a $48 billion COVID bill to provide new rounds of relief to restaurants, gyms, and small businesses. However, the bill’s chances of clearing the Senate have always been doomed given its size and the lack of offsets. Across the Capitol, Speaker Pelosi has accused the GOP of using immigration policy and blackmail unrelated to the COVID package. In the meantime, the House has been taking votes on higher priority issues, including the baby formula shortage, domestic extremism, and gas price gouging.
Activity on Other Healthcare Bills
While the COVID aid package remains stalled, a half dozen health bills saw some movement this week. The House Energy and Commerce Committee (House E&C) favorably reported these bills on Wednesday. Of these, some are considered "must pass," specifically the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) user fee reauthorization, which received unanimous support in committee. The sixth iteration of the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) is set to expire on September 30. On Tuesday, the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee unveiled a bipartisan discussion draft to reauthorize the program. There are some discrepancies between the House and Senate versions, with the Senate including new negotiation requirements and the House making changes to the accelerated approval pathway.
House E&C also advanced its mental health package, which reauthorizes certain Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) and Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMSHA) programs and establishes new mental health programs. You might recall that in the Senate, the HELP Committee is set to reauthorize mental health programs while the Finance Committee is looking to create new programs.
A top priority for President Biden, the establishment of Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health (ARPA-H), got one step closer to reality as House E&C also advanced legislation establishing the program. However, instead of adopting the president's proposal that would create ARPA-H as a sub-entity of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the committee's legislation establishes it as an independent agency.
Of the other three bills passed by House E&C, one provides new funding to NIH's Kids First research program from redirected penalties, one ensures greater access to health services for at-risk youth before and after incarceration, and one raises awareness of heart disease in the South Asian community. It is not yet clear when the House might consider any of these bills.
USICA/America COMPETES Act Conference
Last week, the USICA/America COMPETES Act conference officially kicked off with a meeting that allowed conferees to make opening statements and conduct other conference committee formalities. We continue to hear that there is a long, tough road ahead to find consensus on a compromise bill. While Congressional leadership is trying to ramp up pressure around a July 4 deadline for a conference report, Members still tell us that just before the August recess is a more realistic timeframe. There are also some staffers who believe the China competitiveness package could slip to the lame duck.
One factor that is likely to drag out conference committee proceedings is debate over provisions that various conferees are seeking to “airdrop” into the conference report. Perhaps one of the most talked-about items in this category is the FABS Act, which would create a new investment tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing facilities. This week Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX) expressed opposition to adding a tax title to the competitiveness package. Meanwhile, Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID) has indicated he is supportive of including the provision, although he admitted that he has concerns that adding the FABS Act could open the floodgates for other less relevant tax proposals.
BBB/Reconciliation
We continue to hear that serious, staff-level talks are taking place on a reconciliation package, but ongoing negotiations may still be a way off from reaching an agreement on a framework. Following what we understand to be routine meetings between Schumer and Manchin staff, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) met for the second time this month on Wednesday afternoon to discuss strategies for addressing inflation, which Sen. Manchin has cited as a priority for any reconciliation bill, along with climate change, deficit reducing, and prescription drug pricing reform. Following their meeting, Leader Schumer indicated that progress is being made, though there is still no handshake deal or consensus on who might hold the pen.
There are rumblings that Leader Schumer has set May 31 as the deadline for reaching a deal on a framework for reconciliation, with the idea that an agreement would need to be reached by this date in order for text to be drafted, shopped around with Democratic Members, and refined before the reconciliation vehicle expires on September 30. To the contrary, we are hearing that Sen. Manchin is not committed to an end-of-the-month deadline for striking a deal, and in his mind, the end of the fiscal year might be the real drop-dead date. As talks between Leader Schumer and Sen. Manchin go forward, Sen. Manchin continues to participate in working groups that have formed to explore the possibility of achieving bipartisan energy and election reform bills.
While getting to an agreement on a Build Back Better (BBB)-like bill is still a tall order, if a package does come together, we continue to hear that it is likely to include clean energy tax breaks, prescription drug pricing reform, and a tax increase on millionaires, with revenue leftover for deficit reduction. We think this type of proposal could win the support of both Sens. Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), and potentially unify Democrats who are eager to have something to campaign on this fall. Depending on what is ultimately included in the package, a reconciliation agreement could also motivate Democratic voters. While Democratic frustration with Sen. Manchin may be building, many Democrats tell us they are not giving up on reconciliation yet.
Appropriations
Budget hearings continued this week with testimony from Labor Secretary Marty Walsh, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Michael Regan, U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Samantha Administrator Power, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Administrator Nelson, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth, Federal Trade Commission (FTC) Chair Lina Khan, and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Shalanda Young.
As these hearings continue, the “big four” appropriators seem to be in a good place on fiscal year 2023 (FY23) negotiations. This week, Sen. Shelby expressed his view that there is a deal to be had on toplines for defense and non-defense spending. He suggested that in ongoing negotiations, Republicans are prepared to demand increased national defense spending and strategies to combat inflation.
In a positive sign for the FY23 spending measures getting enacted this year, we have reached out to appropriations staffers on specific matters, and they have been putting us off, hinting that even without topline numbers, committee staff is still trying to get work done on the annual appropriations bills. Also driving the process forward, we have started to see individual Members publicly disclosing their FY23 earmark requests.
Political Tidbits
Retirements
This week’s primaries in Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon, and Pennsylvania have already caused waves in the 118th Congress. In the primary between Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-OR) and his progressive challenger, votes are still being counted and the race has not been called, though election results indicate a rough road ahead for Rep. Schrader. Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-NC) joined the list of defeated incumbents, and the breakdown of Members not returning in 2023 is now:
1 Senate Democrat: 1 full committee chair (Appropriations)
6 Senate Republicans: 6 full committee ranking members (Appropriations; Armed Services; Banking; HELP; Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs (HSGAC); and Rules)
33 House Democrats: 4 full committee chairs (Budget; Ethics; Science, Space, and Technology; and Transportation and Infrastructure)
22 House Republicans: 2 full committee ranking members (Homeland Security and Ways and Means)
Primaries
Tuesday might have been the busiest day of the midterm season so far. Several races have been called, but there’s no clear trend on how an endorsement by former President Donald Trump impacted Republican primary results. It’s also unclear how the draft Supreme Court (SCOTUS) opinion leaked just two weeks ago has swayed primary voters. Democrats are hopeful abortion rights will motivate the same base they mobilized in 2020 for this upcoming general election while Republicans, just shy of achieving a long-sought goal of overturning Roe v. Wade, have minimized its electoral significance but pledged sweeping changes. We followed some of the more noteworthy races in the five states that held primaries on Tuesday: Idaho
Gubernatorial: Incumbent Gov. Brad Little won over Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin in the Republican primary by approximately 20 points, signaling that President Trump’s influence may carry less weight. Gov. Little will face Stephen Heidt, who won the Democratic nomination.
Kentucky
Senate: Incumbent Republican Sen. Paul won the GOP primary unopposed, and he will face Democrat Charles Booker, a former Kentucky House of Representatives member who won his race in a landslide. Booker was given the political spotlight when he sought the Democratic nomination in the election against Leader McConnell, a bid he ultimately lost to Amy McGrath in the primary. Like McGrath did in 2020, Booker faces an uphill battle as the state has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since Wendell Ford in 1992.
KY-3: State Senate Minority Leader Morgan McGarvey won the Democratic nomination to fill the seat of outgoing Rep. John Yarmuth (D-KY). On the Republican side, Stuart Ray narrowly won the Republican primary. The district has been rated as solidly Democratic, reflecting the 15 years retiring Rep. Yarmuth has held the seat.
North Carolina
The Tar Heel State has been projected to be a key battleground for 2022 with an open seat in the Senate and four competitive House seats, two of which are open.
Senate: Backed by significant campaign contributions, Trump-endorsed Rep. Ted Budd (R-NC) won the Republican nomination. Although he had been in a tight race with former Gov. Pat McCrory for months, Rep. Budd seemed to open a lead, likely due to President Trump’s influence and financial backing from conservative PACs. Rep. Budd will face Democrat and former North Carolina Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley in November. Beasley had long been seen as the favorite in the primary since late last year when her intraparty challenger state Sen. Jeff Jackson ended his campaign, threw his support behind Beasley, and ran for the seat to represent the newly created 14th District. The seat is being viewed by Democrats as an opportunity to flip a GOP-held seat, though it will not be easy. President Trump won the state in 2016 and 2020, but Beasley could energize voters, as she won statewide office in 2008 and 2014.
NC-1: Democratic State Sen. Don Davis won the nomination to fill the seat of retiring Rep. GK Butterfield (D-NC). In November, he will face Republican Sandy Smith, who has been endorsed by several Trump allies. The seat has been rated as competitive but leaning Democrat.
NC-4: Davis’ State Senate colleague, Valerie Foushee, won the Democratic nomination for the seat of retiring Rep. David Price (D-NC). She will face Republican Courtney Geels, a registered nurse.
NC-11: While not a competitive seat in the general, this district saw one of the biggest headlines on Tuesday. Rep. Cawthorn conceded to GOP primary challenger State Sen. Chuck Edwards. After several incidents this year that angered both sides of the aisle, Rep. Cawthorn’s reelection bid fell short of the margin needed to win the nomination outright and was denied the possibility of a July primary runoff. Edwards, who had been endorsed by several establishment Republicans in the state including Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), will face Democrat and Buncombe County Commissioner Jasmine Beach-Ferrera in the fall.
NC-13: In a new district, 26-year-old Bo Hines, with help from a Trump endorsement, won the GOP primary. He will face state Sen. Wiley Nickel in November. Both had previously filed to run in other districts before settling on the 13th, which is being rated as a tossup election.
NC-14: In another new district, state Sen. Jeff Jackson secured the Democratic nomination while Pat Harrigan, a businessman, won the Republican primary. This seat is likely Democratic.
Oregon
OR-4: Bureau of Labor and Industries Commissioner Val Hoyle won the Democratic nomination to fill the seat of retiring Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-OR). She will face Republican Alek Skarlatos, who lost to Rep. DeFazio by 5 points in 2020.
OR-5: President Biden’s endorsement might not mean much, as incumbent moderate Rep. Schrader looks like he will be unseated. However, only 53 percent of the estimated vote has been counted due to printing errors in one county. Jamie McLeod Skinner is leading the Democratic race. Former Happy Valley Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads the Republican field, but that primary has also not been called.
OR-6: In a new district, Democratic State Rep. Andrea Salinas has the lead over her competitors and Republican Mike Erickson over his, though neither race has been called.
Gubernatorial: The state’s gubernatorial race will see three female candidates on the ballot to succeed term-limited Gov. Kate Brown in November. Former State House Speaker Tina Kotek won the Democratic nomination, and former State House Minority Leader Christine Drazan secured the GOP nomination. A well-funded, unaffiliated former State Sen. Betsy Johnson is also expected to be on the ballot.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania’s primaries might have as well been called this season’s Super Bowl, and some even referred to the night as a “Monty Python skit.” With an open Senate seat, a term-limited governor, and several competitive House seats, the races were surging with money right up until the final stretch. The Democratic lieutenant governor and attorney general, respectively running for Senator and Governor, were both experiencing health issues, making it impossible for them to be present at their victories. Further, some results will continue to be unclear. While election outcomes from in-person voting were reported throughout the night, mail ballots are unlikely to be counted for a few days due to a Pennsylvania law, which prohibits election officials from processing mail ballots until Election Day. As of Monday night, election officials were recording around 900,000 mail or early ballots.
Senate: Despite suffering a stroke days before the primary, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman secured the Democratic nomination for the open Senate seat, beating Rep. Conor Lamb (D-PA) by over 30 percent. His wife, Gisele Fetterman, spoke on his behalf to a crowd of his supporters. Rep. Lamb, who had been cast as being more in league with Sen. Manchin, struggled to raise money throughout his campaign and ended up losing to Fetterman in his home district. As voters went to sleep on Wednesday night, it was still unclear who had won the Republican nomination with Dr. Mehmet Oz and Dave McCormick facing razor thin margins. Although Kathy Barnette had made headwinds in the polls in the days leading up to the primary, she ultimately lagged behind the other two candidates, likely due to recently discovered photos of her marching with the far-right organization Proud Boys. The outcome will likely be unknown for a few days, as election officials have yet to finish counting ballots.
PA-12: Though the race has not been called, it appears progressive Democrat Summer Lee will narrowly secure the nomination to fill the vacant seat of retiring Rep. Mike Doyle (D-PA). She will face Republican Mike Doyle (no relation). The seat has been rated as safe for the Democrats and will likely remain blue in the fall.
PA-17: Chris Deluzio secured the Democratic nomination to fill the seat of retiring Rep. Lamb, who left the seat vacant to run for Senate. The Navy veteran who heads a cyber policy center at the University of Pittsburgh will face GOP challenger Jeremy Shaffer. The seat is being rated as a tossup this fall, and its outcome will likely be a signal of how high the red tide will be this year.
Gubernatorial: In the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Tom Wolf, second-term state Attorney General Josh Shapiro cleared the field and easily won the Democratic nomination, although a recent COVID diagnosis meant he was unable to join the election night party. The abortion debate will likely be a contentious issue in the state that provided a key earlier ruling in Planned Parenthood v. Casey. Shapiro has promised to veto any legislation that would curtail abortion rights. On the Republican side, Trump-endorsed State Sen. Doug Mastriano took the nomination. He has become well-known as an individual that supports conspiracies and helped to organize bus rides to the January 6 Capitol attack.
Next week rounds out a very busy May primary season. Looking ahead, these are races we’ll be watching:
May 24
Alabama: Incumbent Republican Sen. Shelby is retiring.
Georgia: Herschel Walker is expected to secure the Republican nomination to face incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) in the fall, and Democratic Reps. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-GA) and Lucy McBath (D-GA) face each other for a redistricted seat.
Special Election in Texas: Runoff in Texas following a primary earlier this spring. Incumbent Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) faces a challenge by progressive Jessica Cisneros. Rep. Cuellar has support from House Democratic leadership, but Cisneros has been able to rally women’s groups as Rep. Cuellar is one of the last pro-life House Democrats. Immigration and a recent Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) investigation are other issues at play in this election.
Special Election in Minnesota: Special election in Minnesota to replace the seat of the late Republican Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R-MN).
Redistricting
Only five states remain that do not currently have Congressional maps for the 2022 elections: New Hampshire and Missouri have yet to enact maps, while Florida, Kansas and New York continue to face court challenges and redraws. New Hampshire has announced that if lawmakers can’t reach an agreement by today, the court will draw new maps using a “least change” approach. Missouri’s map is now on Gov. Mike Parson’s desk. Florida’s map has been rejected by the courts.
The most noteworthy news in the last week was that New York’s special master released a drafted version of new maps, setting off a mad scramble for seats in the House. This version would create at least eight highly competitive districts, unlike the previous version which would have given Democrats an advantage in 22 of the state’s 26 districts, only adding to the difficult conditions Democrats face this fall. The new map also risks eliminating two Democratic seats currently held by Black representatives. Of note:
Reps. Yvette Clarke (D-NY) and Hakeem Jeffries’ (D-NY) districts have merged into the same Brooklyn seat. Rep. Jeffries is currently the fifth-ranking Democrat in the House and rumored to be interested in the speakership should Speaker Pelosi step down or retire, throwing the future leadership of the Democratic caucus into question.
Rep. Nicole Malliotakis’ (R-NY) district had previously been redrawn with a Democratic lean, but the new district map allows her to keep redder parts of her 11th District.
House Judiciary Chair Jerry Nadler (D-NY), who has been in Congress since November 1992, and House Oversight and Reform Chair Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), who has served since January 1993, have been redistricted into Manhattan’s 12th District.
Decisions by Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), Mondaire Jones (D-NY), and Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY) will have a domino effect in the area just north of New York City. Rep. Maloney’s newly redrawn district is now a swing seat, and he has opted to run in Rep. Jones’ district. Rep. Maloney’s home is in this district, but three-quarters of the district were represented previously by Rep. Jones. This seat was won by President Biden by 10 points in 2020. The rest of Rep. Jones’ district has merged into the same Westchester district represented by Rep. Bowman, and he faces the choice between challenging Reps. Maloney or Bowman. Rep. Maloney's decision has left many Democrats frustrated, and some, including Reps. Jeffries and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), have suggested he step down as Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) chair if he faces Rep. Jones in a primary.
It is likely this version could be approved by Supreme Court Judge Patrick McAllister, who ran for judge as a Republican. The maps are due tomorrow. Congressional primaries are scheduled for August 23. However, a new lawsuit filed Sunday in Manhattan Supreme Court could attempt to invalidate the maps and delay the primary date until new lines are drawn.