House and Senate Committee Musical Chairs

Looking Ahead to the Next Congress

At Plurus Strategies, we are not only policy experts, but also big political junkies. We could not resist the urge to mark that today we are 99 days away from the general election. Since the Election Day countdown is now in the double digits, as is our tradition, we have been taking a close look at how the composition of the House and Senate, and more specifically, committee membership and leadership, may change in the 117th Congress.

As you will see, our primary objective is to show how retirements, tight races, and term limits may impact the standing committees. Our House and Senate analyses represent a snapshot of the current landscape, although things could change as the midterms get closer.

To be clear, our analyses do not attempt to predict who will win or lose in November. In the interest of eliminating political bias, we have tried to rely on major election forecasting organizations. That said, House and Senate race ratings from 270 To Win, Real Clear Politics, the Cook Political Report, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball are included as appendices. Even across these ratings, there are some discrepancies.

Senate Musical Chairs

The current balance of the Senate is 53 Republicans to 47 Democrats, including two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Democrats would need to flip three seats and the vice presidency to win control of the Senate. If President Donald Trump is re-elected, Democrats will need to flip four seats to win control.

This year, Senate Republicans are on the defensive, defending 23 seats. Democrats are only defending 12. The generic ballot currently gives Democrats an 8.6-point lead and, at this point, most political pundits believe control of the Senate is in play.

Our Senate slide deck identifies all of the senators who are in cycle and codes them according to low, moderate, and high levels of risk for sitting incumbents and open seats. Members who are not color coded are currently not in cycle.

Additionally, our Senate document identifies the four senators who have announced retirements and distinguishes seats that flipped in the 2018 midterm elections. It is worth noting that Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA) is running in a contested primary against Rep. Joe Kennedy (D-MA). The Massachusetts primary is scheduled for September 1. Whoever wins the primary is likely to win the general election.

Our Senate analysis outlines various scenarios for which senators may serve as the chairs or ranking members of the standing Senate committees in the 117th Congress. The Senate has traditionally handed out gavels based on seniority. This year, both term limits, as well as a potential change in control of the chamber, could lead to some notable changes.

Senate Republicans have term limits of six years as chair and six years as ranking member. In other words, a Republican senator can serve a cumulative six years as chairman, plus a cumulative six years as ranking member of the same committee. Republican senators can only use seniority to bump sitting chairs or ranking members when the control of the Senate switches parties. This is especially important this year, with several election forecasting organizations projecting an increased likelihood the Senate flips to Democratic control. Senate Democrats do not have term limits.

To access our full Senate analysis, please click here.

House Musical Chairs

In the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats picked up 40 seats in the House to win control for the first time since 2010. There are currently 232 Democrats, 198 Republicans, one Libertarian, and four vacancies in the House. 218 seats are needed to win control.

Our House presentation identifies all members who will not be returning in the 117th Congress, including those retiring, running for higher office, or losing their primaries. It also highlights the seats that flipped in the 2018 midterm elections.

The tightest House races are marked as toss-ups, while some of the other most competitive races are coded as likely/leans Democrat or Republican. In the House, these race ratings are changing almost daily. As all members of the House are currently in cycle, races that are not color coded are viewed as likely safe seats. By most projections, House Democrats appear well-positioned to win at least 218 seats in November and to potentially grow their majority.

Our House analysis also examines who may be the chairs and ranking members of the standing House committees in the 117th Congress. Though these positions are largely based on seniority, other factors, such as term limits, party fundraising, and support among leadership and the broader caucus, are also taken into consideration.

House Republicans have term limits of six cumulative years as chair and ranking member. In other words, six years as chairman constitutes a term limit, but so does four years as chairman and two years as ranking member on the same committee. House Democrats do not have term limits.

To access our full House analysis, please click here.

Conclusion

Of course, November 3 is still a little less than 100 days away and anything can happen. We look forward to routinely updating these presentations as we get closer to Election Day.