Election Day Countdown Hits Double Digits

With 99 days until November 3, Vice President Joe Biden maintains a healthy lead over President Donald Trump, both nationally and in many of the key swing states. Democrats are running away with races for seats in the House of Representatives and have become fiercely competitive in contests for control of the Senate. At this moment, unified Democratic control of the Federal Government seems like a real possibility, if not likely, come January. Less than 100 days out from Election Day, a number of issues are on the forefront of voters’ minds.

  • SURGING COVID CASES IN PRIMARILY RED STATES: At the end of June, U.S. cases of COVID-19 began to spike, and we are now consistently seeing daily new case counts of more than double the original peak in April. The new cases are primarily coming from states in the South and West, with Florida, Texas, and California leading the nation in new cases. Public health experts maintain that mask-wearing, social distancing, and contact tracing can all help to bring the pandemic under control in the U.S., but many Americans have doubts. President Trump initially resisted those calling on him to wear a mask in public, but recently reversed course by wearing a mask on a visit to Walter Reed Medical Center. Although President Trump appears to be shifting his tone, including by canceling convention events scheduled to take place in Jacksonville, Florida, and softening his demands for schools to reopen for in-person instruction, last week, U.S. cases hit an important milestone of four million cases since January. This figure is double the caseload in the U.S. six weeks ago. Congress has begun negotiations on another COVID relief bill, but some provisions to protect Americans have already lapsed, such as moratoriums on evictions. With the unemployment rate still in double digits and unemployment claims on the rise, an economic and housing crisis appears to be on the horizon, with the potential to exacerbate the ongoing public health threat.

  • RISING UNEMPLOYMENT AND NO CLEAR PATH FORWARD ON UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS: The July unemployment rate rests at 11.1 percent, up from 3.5 percent in February. Since the beginning of the coronavirus crisis, over 50 million Americans have filed for unemployment, with over 30 million still on unemployment insurance in July. The additional $600 unemployment benefit created by the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES) Act is set to expire on July 31, although the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) has stipulated states can pay unemployment benefits no later than one week prior. Though negotiations continue, Republicans may reduce that benefit to $200 in their opening proposal, while Democrats favor continuing the additional $600 payment through January. It also seems like the next COVID bill could include another round of stimulus checks. Regardless of what unemployment benefits and economic stimulus may ultimately be provided, reports show a 14 percent increase in permanent business closures since last month and point to a trend that permanent business closures are now outpacing temporary ones. Meanwhile, President Trump continues to focus his economic analyses on the stock market, which many economists argue does not mirror the reality of the economic situation for most Americans out of work.

  • UNRESOLVED TENSIONS RELATED TO POLICE BRUTALITY AND LAW ENFORCEMENT: Protests against police brutality and racism in America have continued in earnest since May. Recently, former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin was charged with multiple counts of tax evasion, and is still facing trial for second-degree murder for his alleged involvement in the murder of George Floyd. Democrats in the Senate blocked the Republican police reform bill, arguing the bill did not make meaningful changes to improve relations between police forces and the communities they serve. The Democratic bill, the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act, passed in the House in June, but has not advanced in the Senate. In recent weeks, federal law enforcement officers have also made national headlines in Portland, where they were filmed arresting protesters and taking them into unmarked rental minivans. President Trump has announced plans to surge federal law enforcement to cities across the nation, with officers arriving imminently in Chicago. Recent polling seems to suggest public opinion is shifting away from the view put forward by President Trump, as 91 percent of Americans agree that racism is a problem in the U.S. and 89 percent think police violence is a problem.

NOW THAT THE DOUBLE DIGIT COUNTDOWN TO ELECTION DAY HAS BEGUN, many political pundits are forecasting unified control of the Federal Government by the Democratic Party in 2021. Notably, on July 23, the Cook Political Report updated its Senate race ratings, predicting Democrats will win control of the chamber.

  • RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE: Vice President Biden has maintained a steady lead of at least 7 points over President Trump since he became the presumptive Democratic nominee. He leads in Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, all of which are vital to the success of any presidential bid. If Vice President Biden wins all of those states, he will win more than the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Some polls even show Biden leading in Georgia and Texas, two traditional Republican strongholds that are trending more Democratic with each cycle. Americans overwhelmingly disapprove of President Trump’s coronavirus response. Recent surveys show 38 percent of Americans approve of his handling of the outbreak, down from 46 percent in May and 51 percent in March. Additionally, most voters also trust Biden’s mental ability to handle the presidency more than Trump’s. The consistency of Vice President Biden’s polling leads across the country lead many to believe he will pull off a win in November. In fact, the last time a candidate sustained such a large advantage for so long was nearly 25 years ago, when Bill Clinton led Bob Dole in 1996.

  • SENATE CONTROL IN PLAY: The Senate has steadily moved in Democrats’ favor in recent weeks. According to the Cook Political Report, there are only two vulnerable Senate Democrats this cycle: Alabama’s Doug Jones (lean Republican) and Michigan’s Gary Peters (lean Democratic). Vulnerable Republicans in the Senate include Montana’s Steve Daines (toss-up), Colorado’s Cory Gardner (toss-up), North Carolina’s Thom Tillis (toss-up), Georgia’s David Perdue (toss-up), Iowa’s Joni Ernst (toss-up), Maine’s Susan Collins (toss-up), and Arizona’s Martha McSally (lean Democratic). While there are some discrepancies, most major election forecasting organizations are estimating an increasing likelihood of a Democratically-controlled Senate. Senate Democrats are hopeful for another blue wave election, and increasingly thinking 2020 could be a “tsunami year” for the party.

  • UPHILL BATTLE FOR THE GOP IN THE HOUSE: House Democrats remain poised to expand their majority, keeping Speaker Nancy Pelosi in her role for another two years. Democrats will almost certainly pick up two seats in North Carolina as a result of court-ordered redistricting. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is focused on 55 key races, including 42 incumbents and 13 challengers. Recently, the Cook Political Report updated its House race ratings, moving the ratings of 20 races in Democrats’ favor, an unprecedented shift. At the moment, there is nothing to suggest Democrats will not continue a steady march towards holding the majority in the House in 2021.

UNIFIED DEMOCRATIC CONTROL of the Federal Government in 2021 would likely lead to passage of more progressive legislative packages, including more comprehensive economic support for those affected by the coronavirus crisis, pro-consumer regulations, police reforms, and protections for marginalized groups. Democrats would also likely aim to undo the legacy items of the Trump administration, ending travel bans from the Middle East, shifting resources away from construction of the Southern border wall, and reentering the Paris Agreement to combat climate change.

Click here for more detailed reporting on recent polling, as well as additional Plurus Strategies observations and analysis.