Indicators for the 2024 Elections: The I's Have It
The Political Landscape
The 2024 election cycle is now in full swing with President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump headed towards a rematch and control of both the House and Senate in play in November. While our crystal ball cannot tell us who will win the presidency and lead the upper and lower chambers next year, it is becoming clear which policy and political issues may be top of mind for voters in this election cycle.
In recent weeks, we have seen President Biden and surrogates attempt to highlight major victories from the president’s first term as they hit the campaign trail. Despite ongoing implementation efforts, many of these packages – including the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), CHIPS and Science Act, and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) – increasingly seem to be in voters’ rearview mirrors. Additionally, the president and his Democratic colleagues in Congress continue to struggle to claim credit for these legislative initiatives. This may be because only 17 percent of the funding appropriated for these packages has been spent to date. However, a recent POLITICO-Morning Consult poll found that President Biden only has a three-point advantage over President Trump when asked who is more responsible for infrastructure improvements and job creation.
Meanwhile, culture war issues continue to provide fodder for President Trump and many down-ballot Republicans. For example, Republicans have made crime a leading talking point in their campaign stump speeches. As the Fiscal Year 2025 (FY25) National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and appropriations cycles kickoff with markups beginning this week, it is widely expected that Republicans will aim to use these vehicles to advance similar culture war provisions to those debated last year targeting diversity, abortion, and the LGBTQ community, among other issues.
Of course, Democrats will also continue to hype pet issues to play to their base. One that immediately comes to mind is climate change, though recent polling suggests that environmental issues may be ranking lower on the priority list for young voters who have traditionally voted for Democrats.
Despite both parties leveraging familiar elements from their traditional political playbooks, our conversations with key politicos and efforts to put our finger on the pulse of voter sentiments have found that the “I” issues – both policy and political – are top of mind for Americans as they prepare to visit the polls. Our instincts tell us the I’s are likely to determine the winners of the upcoming elections.
The Four Policy I’s
Inflation and the Economy: When it comes to elections, President Bill Clinton’s political advisor James Carville famously said, “it’s the economy, stupid.” This is not lost on President Biden, who has attempted to woo voters with his messaging around “shrinkflation” and the administration’s efforts to tackle junk fees. However, inflation is the big economic issue driving voters’ thinking. In an early May ABC News/Ipsos poll, 88 percent of those surveyed said the economy was important when deciding who to vote for, and 85 percent said the same for inflation. The same survey found that 46 and 44 percent of voters said they place more trust in President Trump to handle the economy and inflation, respectively, compared to 21 and 30 percent for President Biden.
While many indicators suggest that the U.S. economy is thriving, polls show that Americans continue to have an overall negative economic outlook. Some economists now point out that recent data suggesting higher than expected inflation has dimmed optimism that inflation levels could return to two percent without a recession. Experts have also raised concern that the ongoing trend of a strong labor market could counter cooling inflation by necessitating wage growth.
The bright spot for President Biden may be that beyond macroeconomic conditions, individual voters see their own financial situations improving. For example, a recent Gallup poll found that 43 percent of those surveyed reported that their own finances are getting better, up from 37 percent two years ago. However, these same voters are still focused on high prices, citing housing costs, grocery prices, and other costs of living as things that keep them up at night.
International Relations: Conventional wisdom is that elections are not won or lost on foreign policy. However, it is hard to recall a time in recent political memory when conflicts around the globe were as salient for the American voter. A Gallup poll on foreign policy issues conducted earlier this year found that 54 percent, Americans consider the Russia/Ukraine conflict a critical threat to U.S. interests, followed closely by 52 percent who felt the same about the Israel/Palestine conflict, and 50 percent who characterized China/Taiwan tensions similarly. These numbers are all up significantly from the early 2000s. The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, mounting concerns about Taiwan’s security, and other potential hotspots like Iran and North Korea, create opportunities to highlight distinctions between President Biden and President Trump on foreign policy as well as spotlight internal fissures in both the Democratic and Republican parties.
After six months of painstaking work to get to a deal, Congress passed a $95 billion national security supplemental in late April. The holdup, in large part, could be attributed to complicated dynamics in the House created by an increasingly isolationist America First GOP. The largest piece of the package, $60.8 billion in assistance for Ukraine, passed on a 311-112 vote. A separate component including $26.4 billion in assistance for aid to Israel passed 366-59, while a third piece providing $8.1 billion to support Taiwan and other allies in the Indo-Pacific advanced on a 385-34 vote. The Senate overwhelmingly supported the supplemental by a 79-18 vote, packaging the bills together along with a fourth House-passed bill including a Tik Tok divest-or-ban measure, redistribution of Russian assets to support Ukraine, and tougher sanctions on Russia, Iran, and China. At the end of the day, the package allowed both sides to claim victory.
In more recent weeks, however, President Biden’s policy has been challenged by intensified student activism in response to the administration’s handling of the Netanyahu government’s actions in Gaza. Dissatisfaction over the president’s blurred line between support for Israel and human rights protections for Palestinian civilians has also been reflected in noncommitted votes in Democratic primaries across the country, calling into question support for the president among young and Jewish voters who have typically comprised the Democratic base. The Biden campaign has started to downplay the impact this issue could have at the polls, suggesting that voters understand that President Trump would be a far worse choice to navigate the conflict. However, Republicans have repeatedly tried to prop up this issue for political gain, as evidenced most recently by the House vote on legislation to rebuke President Biden and force weapons shipments to Israel.
The elections are still months away and it is impossible to predict what international crises may arise between now and November. Nor is it possible to know if such a crisis will play to the Biden’s Administration’s advantage, for example, the way both Bush Administrations saw the American public rally around them after the Gulf War and Iraq War, or it’s disadvantage, like how President Jimmy Carter’s reelection prospects were negatively impacted by the Iran hostage crisis.
Immigration: Though some border state Democrats have begun to split with their party on immigration, there is perhaps no issue where there is a greater political polarization between Democrats and Republicans. Not a departure from recent pursuits of comprehensive immigration reform, Republicans remain focused on ramping up border security and protections against illegal immigration, while Democrats continue to prioritize policies that create a pathway to citizenship and support the integration of immigrants into American life.
Late last year, House Republicans insisted they would not back aid for Ukraine without border security measures. In response, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) supported a bipartisan effort to strike a compromise on immigration. Led by Sens. Chris Murphy (D-CT), Kirsten Sinema (I-AZ), and James Lankford (R-OK), the border package would have tightened asylum rules, allowed for partial border shutdowns, and increased enforcement. Despite it coming together in a bipartisan fashion, in February, Senate Republicans blocked consideration of the proposal, citing House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) opposition. The package ultimately crumbled, largely because it was torpedoed by President Trump, who some suggest would have preferred keeping immigration on the table as political issue rather than advancing meaningful policy change.
According to Gallup polling from late April, a steady 27 percent of Americans say the most important problem facing the U.S. is immigration. Since the bipartisan Senate immigration deal fell apart in February, immigration has consistently remained the top issue of concern to voters, marking the first time immigration has been ranked the highest priority for voters for multiple successive months. Both Democrats and Republicans appear to acknowledge this sentiment. After signing off on a deal that represented the most restrictive immigration legislation in years, President Biden is thought to be considering using executive authority to tighten asylum requirements. Additionally, Leader Schumer has expressed interested in bringing the bipartisan package back to the floor, perhaps as soon as this week, for another vote to put Republicans on record. Meanwhile, immigration remains a big theme of every Trump rally.
IVF and Reproductive Rights: Abortion politics following the Supreme Court Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade drove better than expected performance for Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections. Over the past two years, Democrats have been eager to point to President Trump and his allies in the Senate as responsible for the elimination of the constitutional right to an abortion that had existed for nearly five decades. Specifically, they call attention to the confirmations of Trump appointees Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett that tilted the ideological balance of the Supreme Court.
Since the fall of Roe, pro-choice voters have prevailed in seven out of seven ballot measures in Vermont, Montana, Michigan, Kentucky, Kansas, California, and Ohio, issuing a stark warning to Republicans. Without a doubt, abortion-related ballot measures this November in Florida, Maryland, and South Dakota, and potentially in Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New York, and Pennsylvania, could drive turnout and elections outcomes in swing states. While Republicans have coalesced behind President Trump’s position that abortion is a states’ rights issue, the topic has been difficult for Republicans to navigate, especially as new Pew Research Center polling finds that 63 percent of Americans believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases, including 85 percent of Democrats and 41 percent of Republicans.
Another issue making the landscape tricker for Republicans is attacks against in vitro fertilization (IVF) brought on by the fall of Roe, the fetal personhood movement, and the February Alabama Supreme Court ruling in LePage v. Center for Reproductive Medicine. The Alabama ruling legally equated frozen embryos with living children, leading fertility clinics in the state to pause fertility health care because of the substantial risks and uncertainty. In the days following the Alabama decision, many Republicans came out with strong statements in support of IVF. This makes sense, as polling conducted by Kellyanne Conway in December found that 85 percent of all voters and 86 percent of women support increasing access to fertility-related procedures, with IVF receiving overwhelming support. However, conservative groups have since mobilized, sparking Republican interest in debating greater regulation for IVF.
Acknowledging that public opinion is not on Republicans’ side, Leader Schumer is thought to be eager to put his GOP colleagues on record on their support for IVF, especially following live unanimous consent (UC) requests on Sen. Tammy Duckworth’s (D-IL) Access to Family Building Act and Sen. Patty Murray’s (D-WA) Veteran Families Health Services Act that were blocked by Republicans. We would not rule out Leader Schumer carving out floor time this summer for roll call votes on bills that would protect and expand access to IVF.
The Four I’s Intersecting with Politics
Investigations: In March, the Office of the White House Counsel wrote to Speaker Johnson urging House Republicans to move on after 14 months of investigations into claims that President Biden was involved in his son Hunter Biden’s foreign business dealings turned up no evidence. There is no expectation that the GOP will adhere to this request. In fact, it is only likely that politically motivated investigations into the Biden family and other senior members of the Biden Administration will continue as November approaches.
Late last week, Washington was abuzz when President Biden invoked executive privilege after the Republican-led House Judiciary and Oversight and Accountability Committees voted to hold Attorney General Merrick Garland in contempt of Congress for refusing to turn over audio recordings from the president’s interviews conducted as part of special counsel Robert Hur’s investigation into President Biden’s possession of classified documents. The White House has expressed concern that Republicans might seek to manipulate these recordings for political gain, while the GOP claims the president’s lack of transparency proves he is worried about what the audio might show about his age and mental acuity.
Hunter Biden will also face a June trial on federal gun charges and is facing criminal tax charges in California. Additionally, House Oversight and Accountability James Comer (R-KY) announced a new subpoena late last week targeting financial records for Jim Biden, Sarah Biden, and Hunter Biden. It is unclear how this is playing – or if it is even registering – with voters outside Washington.
Impeachments: While Rep. Comer has made clear his investigations into the Biden family’s business dealings are aimed at building a case for impeachment, most political observers believe it is unlikely the president will be impeached by the 118th Congress. However, this does not mean that the GOP will not continue to pursue impeachment as red meat to entice some Republican voters, even after the White House labeled an April House Oversight and Accountability hearing on the Biden family’s alleged influence peddling a “total embarrassment” for Republicans.
As House Oversight and Accountability Committee Republicans continue their investigations, other House GOP Members could make additional moves towards impeaching President Biden. For example, earlier this month, Rep. Cory Mills (R-FL) filed articles of impeachment against President Biden for abuse of power in response to the president’s comments about withholding offensive weapons shipments to Israel. Last year, conservative firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) introduced articles of impeachment against President Biden for high crimes and misdemeanors over his handling of the migrant crisis at the southern border.
Going forward, President Biden may not be the only target of impeachment probes. We could see a repeat of House Republicans’ February vote impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas by one vote, only to see the articles of impeachment quickly dismissed by the Democrat-controlled Senate in April. While it is unclear how closely Republicans outside of Washington may be following these impeachment episodes, political insiders worry about their impact going forward. Republicans have used impeachment as a weapon to air their policy frustrations, but Democrats worry about the precedent this could set, especially in a future Congress where there is not such a razor thin majority.
Indictments: In 2023, four criminal indictments were filed against President Trump related to hush money payments to avoid a sex scandal during his 2016 presidential campaign, federal election interference to subvert President Biden’s 2020 victory, a plot to overturn President Trump’s loss in Georgia during the 2020 election cycle, and possession of classified documents beyond his presidency. In total, the indictments amount to a total of 91 felony charges.
It remains unclear how much these indictments will weigh on voters at the ballot box, especially as the hush money trial, widely thought to be the least egregious of all the charges against Trump, may be the only case to play out before the election. Shortly after the indictments were announced, polling conducted by the Associated Press found that 53 percent of Americans approved of the Justice Department indicting President Trump over his efforts to remain in office after losing the 2020 presidential election. However, this poll skewed partisan with 85 percent of Democrats supporting criminal charges against the former president compared with 47 percent of independents and just 16 percent of Republicans.
It is hard to get a read on where things might be trending, as the latest polls around the hush money trial find that 52 percent of voters agree that President Trump falsified business records, but only 47 percent of voters believe he committed a crime in doing so. In the meantime, the president’s allies characterize the indictments as sham trials, and the Trump campaign continues to fundraise off the judicial proceedings.
Integrity of Elections: On January 7, 2021, many found it hard to believe that President Trump would ever return to public office because of his efforts to interfere in the peaceful transition of power. However, the memories of January 6 now seem short-lived. While it remains unclear how President Trump might try to subvert the outcome of the presidential contents if he is not reelected in November, voters across the country are confronting threats to the integrity of the 2024 elections, both in terms of safety and political interference. A Public Affairs/Morning Consult poll conducted in late 2023 found that just 37 percent of Americans believe the 2024 elections will be honest and open, while 43 percent were not confident in the integrity of the election process.
2016 was the year of Russian interference in the U.S. democratic process. While it may never be known for certain how much the disinformation efforts perpetrated by our adversaries swung the 2016 election for President Trump, there are bound to be numerous malign actors seeking to influence voters’ thinking. The 2020 election cycle saw an uptick in harassment against election workers. While protecting poll workers is primarily an issue for the states, it remains to be seen how threats against those who oversee the polls might impact the administration of the upcoming elections and potentially voter turnout. Of course, this begs the question of what new perils could jeopardize voting in 2024. Top of mind are issues like artificial intelligence (AI) and deepfakes, which have seen an interest in addressing a potential problem, but very little action to date.
Looking Ahead to November
Again, we are not yet ready to declare Democrats or Republicans the winners of this election cycle. However, when it comes to assessing how this election will be won or lost, the one thing that is clear is that the “I’s” have it!