2024 Political Outlook
Political Trends, Conventional Wisdom, and Top Issues
While Election Day 2024 is nearly two years out, Republicans and Democrats are already launching their platforms to attract voters. In the 2022 midterms, Republicans were able to flip the House, though the promotion of extremist alt-right candidates on many ballots was rebuked in many districts. While they successfully defended incumbents and even picked up a seat in Pennsylvania, Democrats have a ways to go in convincing the American electorate that they have delivered on their policies.
Following a better-than-expected victory in the midterms, Democrats are focused on amplifying legislative wins in the 117th Congress, especially the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and the CHIPS and Science Act. In his State of the Union address, President Joe Biden continued this appeal to voters, even as he faces criticism from Republicans on a variety of issues – "culture wars,” increasing scrutiny over U.S. assistance to Ukraine, federal government oversight, decoupling from China, and the current state of the economy.
President Biden’s low approval rating, currently up to 42 percent from a historic low of 38 percent last July, is not a positive reflection of his tenure, and precedent does not favor his success if his ratings fall significantly. Except for President John Kennedy in 1962, President Donald Trump in 2018, and President Biden in 2022, when an unpopular incumbent president has not been up for reelection, every midterm election has resulted in tremendous losses for the incumbent’s party. There have been only six instances where a president’s lowest popularity ratings have fallen in the same time frame as a presidential election – 1952, 1968, 1976, 1980, 1992, and 2008 – all of which resulted in the incumbent never holding office again, whether by constitutional constraints or lack of a democratic mandate.
“It’s the economy stupid.” Economic growth, or lack thereof, has always been a determining factor for electoral success. No incumbent president has ever been reelected in a year where the U.S. is experiencing a recession. Additionally, voters are particularly sensitive to recent changes in economic growth in the months preceding an election, meaning that President Biden will be challenged to ensure continued economic growth through 2024. However, despite expert predictions of a slowdown, American unemployment has fallen to 3.4 percent and 11 million jobs were available as of last December. As evidenced by last year’s midterms, inflation isn’t necessarily a reliable indicator of electoral success, but continuous economic growth eclipsing that of the Trump era could prove essential to Democrats maintaining control of the executive branch and Congress. If the economy were to enter a recession, or the per capita economic growth of the U.S. were to shrink below levels seen during the Trump Administration, it could spell electoral doom for the President and fellow Democrats.
Will 2024 be an outlier? The answer is that it is impossible to know. Democrats can theoretically prevail barring any major military failure, scandal, social unrest, or recession, but in politics, anything is possible. It is possible that Republicans will hedge their bets on foreign policy failures with China and Russia or a lackluster response by the Biden Administration in the face of a future economic downturn should they come to fruition. Without a significant change to the status quo, the Republicans would be relegated to much of the same party messaging used in 2022, including focusing on hot button social issues and inflation.
According to Gallup polling from January, the top issues concerning Americans today are poor government leadership, inflation, immigration, and unifying the country. Economic issues have notably declined in importance as Americans shift their concerns to non-economic issues like crime, poverty, and racism. While the economy represented the top concern for 46 percent of respondents in October, that number declined to 34 percent in January. Non-economic issues rose from 61 percent to 70 percent. With inflation declining steadily in recent months and record low unemployment, the Biden Administration could be entering into an increasingly advantageous position that might be bolstered by the unifying political messaging used by the president during his State of the Union address. Barring any sudden economic downturn, Republicans could shift away from economic concerns and focus more heavily on issues like immigration and crime, which have proven to be tough issues for Democrats.
Poor government leadership is emerging as one of the top concerns of the American electorate going into 2024. Poor leadership provides a double-edged sword that criticizes each party for its own unique issues. The Republican party struggles with some of its officials’ rhetoric, while Democrats are troubled with the constant barrage of attacks levied towards President Biden, and some seeking to pull the party further to the left. Political controversies in general have left voters dissatisfied on both sides of the aisle. Classified documents were found at the residences of Presidents Trump and Biden and Vice President Mike Pence, sparking a flurry of public criticism against established government security protocols. The House speaker election, which was the longest since 1860, garnered negative reactions from both Republicans and Democrats who were eager to see work resume in the chamber. Regardless, adaptability is the name of the game, and each party must capitalize its political victories and social crusades to succeed.
The Race for the White House
Hats in the Ring
President Trump announced his candidacy on November 26, 2022. After leaving office with low approval ratings, in part due to the January 6 attack on the Capitol and his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, President Trump is attempting to once again reclaim his conservative base. However, there has been considerable concern over his viability as a candidate, largely evidenced by a lack of enthusiasm by many establishment Republicans and a disappointing 2022 midterm election cycle. In a recent memo, Americans for Prosperity CEO Emily Seidel emphasized the need to “turn the page on the past several years.” Republican donors coalescing around someone other than President Trump is becoming an increasingly likely reality. A recent poll by Punchbowl News highlighted that 96 percent of K Street Republicans agree that the former president is not the best option. Some Republican leadership, notably Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), have cast doubt on President Trump’s 2024 prospects. With a lackluster audience for his rallies in South Carolina and New Hampshire, and growing challenges from other popular Republicans, it is far from certain what President Trump will do to retain the electoral popularity he used to win the presidency in 2016.
Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina and Ambassador to the U.N., declared her candidacy on February 14. Haley had previously stated that she would not run if President Trump were to announce his candidacy. In recent weeks, she has been seen fundraising in Iowa, indicating that despite concerns about her vitality, she is hoping to see the race through. Haley was also one of the only two prominent GOP presidential candidates who attended the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC). Haley represents a newer, younger generation of Republican candidates who seem keen on providing a more appealing alternative to the aging Republican establishment. Her proposal to require mental competency tests for politicians over the age of 75 has drawn mixed reviews.
Vivek Ramaswamy, the executive chairman of an Ohio-based asset management firm backed by Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) and author of Woke, Inc., announced his run for the Republican nomination on February 21. While a largely unknown figure in mainstream conservative circles, Ramaswamy has garnered attention for his policies regarding affirmative action, China, and climate change. The young corporate executive is keen on highlighting the same hot button issues as many other Republican culture war proponents, though Ramaswamy’s lack of political experience sets him apart.
Marianne Williamson, an author and political activist who previously vied for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020, declared her candidacy on March 4. She is the first Democratic challenger to President Biden, though conventional wisdom weighs heavily in the President’s favor as many leading Democrats have already committed to his unofficial reelection. Williamson is running to “disrupt” the political system, running on a similar platform of universal healthcare, free college, the creation of a Department of Peace, and reparations for African Americans. Williamson has a strong philanthropic background, creating or serving organizations that have provided food and mental health services to HIV/AIDS patients, engaged in grassroots lobbying, and championed social welfare programs. In recent weeks, she has visited South Carolina and New Hampshire.
Chatter About Hot Prospective Candidates
Democrats have coalesced behind President Biden as their 2024 nominee despite rumors earlier in his presidency that other Democrats were eyeing primary challenges. In mid-January, President Biden officially confirmed that Kamala Harris would remain his running mate. The president is expected to officially announce his candidacy in the coming months, though he is in no rush given that he is expecting no real Democratic competition and must focus on other priorities like the war in Ukraine and imminent debt ceiling fight.
While he hasn’t formally announced his candidacy, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been making headlines in recent months as a possible GOP frontrunner. After handily winning his gubernatorial election by 19 percentage points and netting four Congressional seats in Florida, DeSantis now helms a Republican supermajority in his legislature and a powerful mandate from the people of Florida. Reports suggest that DeSantis has been staffing up his super PAC and trying to tie up some of his legislative loose ends, mainly his conflict with Disney. On February 20, the governor visited New York City, Chicago, and Philadelphia, touting his tough-on-crime agenda to their local police unions. At a donor conference in Austin, Texas in early February, 150 of the 350 contributors present were in DeSantis’ camp, many of whom were former Trump supporters.
Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) kicked off his Faith in America listening tour in early February and gave remarks in his home state of South Carolina just a couple weeks later. He was also one of several Republicans present in Iowa weeks ago, touting his decade-long Senate career and deeply conservative views. Sen. Scott has become an increasingly popular candidate in Republican circles for his “middle lane” message that blends Trump-era populism with optimistic Reagan-era conservatism. Sen. Scott has garnered positive attention from prominent Senators John Kennedy (R-LA), Susan Collins (R-ME), and Mitt Romney (R-UT), who called Scott “the real deal.” Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) had also publicly said that Sen. Scott could “win the presidency”.
Lukewarm
Mike Pence has also created a national political committee and was seen in Iowa courting influential evangelical pundits. He traveled to Charleston, South Carolina on March 2 to headline a law enforcement roundtable, but was noticeably absent from CPAC. Pence also made headlines for recently stating that he’s “very confident we’ll have better choices come 2024” than President Trump. These announcements come two years after Pence left office facing death threats from supporters of President Trump, whom to this day are wary of supporting any presidential aspirations from the former vice president. To appear palatable to conservative voters, Pence will have to manage a crowded field of non-Trump candidates.
New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu has also taken steps that would angle him for a presidential run announcement, including creating a national political committee that has no fundraising cap or mandatory disclosure. Sununu has built a profile as an alternative to President Trump, though as the most moderate Republican presumptive presidential candidate, it remains to be seen how effective this will be.
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp began organizing a newly formed political action committee and has since hired some notable staffers to run his national fundraising operation. His opponent in the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial primary, former Sen. David Perdue (R-GA), received President Trump’s endorsement. After handily winning the general election by seven points, it has been rumored that Kemp will either endorse a candidate to oppose President Trump or potentially enter the Republican presidential primary himself.
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin has been noticeably quiet about his 2024 ambitions, though he has not refuted any rumors of his potential candidacy. Looking to capitalize on his growing political momentum, Youngkin is pushing his legislative agenda through the Virginia legislature with force, albeit unsuccessfully. His platform of tax cuts, abortion restrictions, education reform, and tougher penalties for criminals have suffered from failed negotiations with a powerful Democratic foothold in the state legislature. Although Youngkin stated that there was “an enormous amount of work yet to do in Virginia”, his trip to New York to meet with prominent donors and several national media appearances have left many speculating.
The Senate Map
The Senate map is incredibly unfavorable for Democrats in 2024. Republicans won’t be defending a single state that President Biden won in 2020, while Democrats will be defending multiple states that President Trump carried. For Democrats, 2024 pickup opportunities will be virtually nonexistent, and they will be forced to defend seats in vulnerable states like Ohio, West Virginia, Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Creating further uncertainty for Democrats, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has not announced if he will run in 2024, leaving Democrats with little possibility of retaining his seat if Sen. Manchin chooses not to run for reelection. The contest for the seat currently held by newly Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) could also be a nailbiter. Should Sen. Sinema seek reelection, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) jumping into the race could divide Democrats, putting this seat high on the list of potential GOP pickups.
Democrats are additionally facing the retirements of Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) and Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), along with the potential retirement of Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD). However, Democrats hope open seats in these states would remain blue. The Democratic primary for Sen. Feinstein’s open seat appears to be shaping up to be competitive with Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), Katie Porter (D-CA), and Barbara Lee (D-CA) declaring their candidacies. While Michigan was carried by President Trump in 2016, it has not elected a Republican senator since 2000. In Michigan, the open Senate seat is set to be a contest between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) and a future Republican candidate, thanks to the adept maneuvering of Democratic challengers away from the race by Stabenow. On the Republican side, Michigan State Board of Education member Nikki Snyder is the most prominent declared candidate, while Reps. Bill Huizenga (R-MI) and Lisa McClain (R-MI) have publicly expressed interest.
Republicans are also already facing at least one retirement, with Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN) opting to run for governor in 2024 instead of for reelection to the Senate. Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN) is the only Republican to have officially declared his candidacy, while current Indiana Governor Eric Holcomb has expressed equal interest in the Republican nomination.
Overall, there will be several Senate races to watch on both sides of the aisle. Notable races include:
Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT), Sherrod Brown (D-OH), and Joe Manchin (D-WV): These Senators face difficult paths towards reelection, as they all hail from states President Trump won in 2020. Sen. Tester faces a tough road to reelection as Montana has tilted slightly redder since his last election in 2018. While Sen. Tester has a high approval rating in Montana and has strived to maintain a moderate posture to retain conservative support, this seat remains a top target for the GOP. Sen. Brown has announced that he will run for reelection 2024. Rather than seeking to distance himself from the president, he has publicly said, "I run my own race, and my own brand. So, I'm not going to run from Biden". While Sen. Brown has previously won reelection by assembling a coalition of Democrats, Independents, and some Republicans, Ohio’s support for Sen. Vance in 2022 portends that the race will be contentious in 2024. Sen. Tester’s delegation partner, Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), was recently elected as the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), which could prove detrimental to a contested reelection campaign.
Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL): While Sen. Scott has faced criticism over his plans to sunset Social Security and Medicare, Florida’s overall shift to the right means it might be a more challenging pickup opportunity for Democrats than when it was traditionally viewed as a swing state. While possible Democratic challengers have been floated, none have announced their candidacy to date.
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ): Sen. Sinema’s declaration of independence from the Democratic Party on December 9 has fueled speculation about her plans to run for reelection. As noted above, should she choose to run for another term, Sen. Sinema will compete with Democratic Rep. Gallego. As of January, Sen. Sinema’s approval rating from Arizona Democrats sit at 30 percent, which makes it less likely that she’ll receive the typical incumbent advantage at the polls. She also continues to encounter some backlash from constituents because of her gradual shift to the right from the progressive policies she initially ran on and her decision to leave the Democratic party.
Sens. Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Bob Casey (D-PA), and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI): These Senators are from states that President Biden won in 2020 but are still viewed as somewhat vulnerable this cycle. While Sen. Rosen is the only candidate in her race at the moment, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s (D-VA) slim margin of victory and the election of a Republican governor in 2022 makes her reelection slightly precarious. Sen. Casey has not yet announced his 2024 candidacy but is expected to run in 2024, despite concerns about his recent prostate cancer diagnosis. No Republican has formally announced their candidacy, but it has been widely rumored that 2022 GOP primary runner-up Dave McCormick is considering a run. McCormick has been promised support by the Senate Leadership Fund led by Leader McConnell. Sen. Baldwin is expected to run for reelection in 2024. The reelection of Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) in 2022 shows that her Republican opponent has a chance of posing a significant threat.
Open seats: Michigan (Slotkin, Snyder), California (Schiff, Lee, Porter), Indiana (Banks)
Retirements
2 Democrats: 1 full committee chair (Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry)
1 Republican: 1 full committee ranking member (Aging)
House Races
Given that Republicans currently control the House with just a five-seat majority, control of the chamber could once again be in play in 2024. Republicans will be defending 18 seats that President Biden carried in 2020 compared to the five Democrats must protect in districts won by President Trump.
Republican leadership has been determined to improve the quality of candidates for House races, which may be partially to blame for Republicans’ weak performance in the 2022 midterms. Republican Congressional leaders have launched a campaign to recruit experienced candidates that have a more moderate approach compared to the slate of nominees in 2022, who tended to be more far right and aligned with President Trump. This effort and other factors at play in the political environment are creating some optimism among Republicans about a potential to grow their margin in the House in 2024.
Another factor to consider is the redistricting that could take place in up to a dozen states before the 2024 elections. The University of Virginia's Center for Politics reported that Democrats' efforts in the late 2010s to overturn overly partisan district maps helped Democrats gain six seats. However, despite Democrat attempts to stave off partisan gerrymandering by Republican legislatures, the ruling in an upcoming Supreme Court case (Moore v. Harper) could bar state courts from overturning the maps that legislatures create, leaving Republican legislatures open to engaging in racial and partisan gerrymandering. This decision could potentially determine the makeup of the House for years to come.
During this cycle, there will be several races to watch as there are 69 races that aren’t solidly Republican or Democrat: 29 likely or leaning Democrat, 20 likely or leaning Republican, and 20 toss-ups.
Retirements
3 Republicans
5 Democrats: 1 full committee ranking member (Intelligence)
Gubernatorial Contests
The 2024 cycle is likely to see fewer changes in governor’s mansions across the country. In total there are 14 governorships up for reelection in 2024. While there are six open seats (Delaware, North Carolina, Louisiana, Indiana, Missouri, and West Virginia), six of the remaining seats are solid or leaning Republican and the other two are solid or leaning Democrat. Here is our take on the races to watch.
North Carolina stands as the only true toss up gubernatorial race in 2024 as even though the state has had primarily Democrat governors serving the last eight terms, Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson seems positioned to legitimately compete with Democrat Josh Stein. Although Robinson is a first-time candidate for the top job in state government, he was previously elected to his current position with a bigger raw vote total than President Trump.
Mississippi has traditionally had a Republican governor. However, Gov. Tate Reeves' handling of recent scandals related to the mishandling of $77 million dedicated for welfare programs and issues with Jackson’s water supply has opened an opportunity for Democrat Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley. An initial ballot test has Presley leading Reeves 47 percent compared to 44 percent in terms of favorability. However, it will be difficult for Presley to buck the partisan trend in Mississippi given the often-short shelf-life of outrage to political scandals and the massive institutional advantages held in the state.
Louisiana’s upcoming 2023 race is shaping up to be one to watch as the current Democratic governor is term-limited and Republicans have been gearing up to retake the governor's seat. Early polling has shown that state Attorney general Jeff Landry is likely to be the GOP nominee but other competitors, such as state Sen. Sharon Hewitt and state Rep. Richard Nelson, could still challenge him in the primary. Former Louisiana Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson, who served under Gov. John Bel Edwards, recently announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination and seems poised to be the nominee.
Looking ahead
The 2024 election is more than 18 months away, leaving an incredible amount of room for potential changes that may impact the state of play. Every single one of these races, from the Senate to the presidency, is too far in the future to make any accurate prediction or summation. Factors impacting the electoral landscape are all subject to changes at a whim, with recent events like the Norfolk Southern train derailment and the Silicon Valley Bank failure proving how volatile and unpredictable the American political climate can be. Perfect clairvoyance is unachievable, but it is in our best interest to make educated guesses pertaining to our political future, lest we resign ourselves to speculation.