118th Congress Musical Chairs
The 118th Congress will be sworn in on January 3. Republicans will control the House, while Democrats will retain control of the Senate meaning divided government. In the House, 91 new Members – 50 Republicans and 41 Democrats – will be joining reelected incumbents. In the Senate, seven new Members – two Democrats and five Republicans – will be sworn in with the reelected incumbents. Before both parties can get moving on their agendas for the next two years, final committee sizes and ratios must be determined.
Plurus Strategies’ latest report provides an overview of 118th Congress party and committee leadership, as well as membership for standing and a few non-standing committees. Many 117th Congress chairs and ranking members are expected to remain committee leads in the new Congress, while other top spots – including House Budget, Education and Labor, Homeland Security, Small Business, and Ways and Means and Senate Appropriations, Armed Services, Banking, HELP, and HSGAC – remain undecided. Several of these will likely result in domino effects that will alter leadership and membership of other committees.
Given that party decisions related to committee assignments occur behind closed doors, this report cannot comprehensively account for what will happen. However, our analysis intends to show a possible projection of committee spots that could be vacant, Members that may be at risk of getting bumped from committees, and Members that may have to give up their committee spots due to Republican Conference, Democratic Caucus, or general House or Senate Rules. It also provides intel on Members jockeying for spots on certain committees, and committee chairmanship elections and nominations.
House: Republicans will start the 118th Congress with 222 seats (51.2 percent of the chamber). Democrats will start with 212 seats (48.8 percent of the chamber), not including the one vacancy, Rep. Donald McEachin’s (D-VA) seat which is heavily Democratic and expected to be filled after the special election on February 21. This currently gives Republicans a 10-seat majority. The party ratios on each standing committee are negotiated between the parties at the beginning of the Congress. While Democratic Caucus Rules require that committee ratios are “at least representative” of majority-minority seats in the House, Republicans do not have an equivalent requirement. That being said, ratios have historically reflected the margins and the majority party traditionally gives itself 1-2 more seats on committees than they have in total chamber seats.
There are some exceptions. For instance, because of their importance, Appropriations and Way and Means usually have an extra couple seats for the majority. In the outgoing Congress, Democrats began with 51.2 percent of total House seats but gave themselves 55.9 percent of total committee seats on Appropriations and 58.1 percent of total seats on Ways and Means.
The main question is one of committee size. Given that the 117th House margins are similar to the expected margins of the incoming Congress, it is possible that these numbers will remain the same but flipped. Still, there are several historical examples that could help provide additional insight on certain committees.
Closest Match to 118th Congress: The most recent match to the incoming 118th House is the 107th House (2001–2003), where Republicans held a slim, nine-seat majority. Committees had roughly a four-seat margin. Compared to the 117th House committee sizes, the 107th House committee sizes were as follows: Agriculture (same), Appropriations (+6), Armed Services (+1), Budget (+6), Education (-4), Energy and Commerce (-1), Financial Services (+16), Foreign Affairs (-2), House Administration (same), Judiciary (-6), Natural Resources (+4), Government Reform (-1), Rules (same), Science (+5), Small Business (+9), Transportation (+6), Veterans’ Affairs (same), Ways and Means (-2), and Intelligence (-3).
Most Recent Congress House Republicans Reclaimed Majority: Republicans last won a majority in the House from Democrats in the 112th Congress (2011–2013). This is an insightful comparison as the 112th Congress was divided with Republicans reclaiming majority in the House and Democrats controlling the Senate. House Republicans held a 49-seat margin. Nearly all committees had a 5-6 seat margin. Compared to 111th House committee sizes, the 112th House committee sizes were as follows: Agriculture (same), Appropriations (-10), Armed Services (same), Budget (-1), Education (+9), Energy and Commerce (-5), Financial Services (-10), Foreign Affairs (-1), Homeland Security (-1), House Administration (same), Judiciary (-1), Natural Resources (-1), Oversight and Government Reform (-1), Rules (same), Science (-4), Small Business (-3), Transportation (-16), Veterans’ Affairs (-3), Ways and Means (-4), and Intelligence (-2).
Most Recent Congress House Republicans Had Majority: Republicans most recently had the majority in the House in the 115th Congress (2017–2019). House Republicans held a 47-seat margin. Nearly all committees had a 5-6 seat margin, which shows they maintained roughly the same ratios from the 112th–115th Congresses. Compared to 117th House committee sizes, the 115th Congress committee sizes were as follows: Agriculture (-5), Appropriations (-7), Armed Services (+3), Budget (-1), Education (-13), Energy and Commerce (-3), Financial Services (+6), Foreign Affairs (-4), Homeland Security (-5), House Administration (same), Judiciary (-3), Natural Resources (-5), Oversight and Government Reform (-3), Rules (same), Science (-3), Small Business (-3), Transportation (-8), Veterans’ Affairs (-7), Ways and Means (-3), and Intelligence (-1).
New committees have been formed in the past two decades and some committees have changed names, so the comparisons are not perfect, but there are still several observations to note. Looking over the three scenarios, it seems Republican majorities have often made the most changes to the sizes of the Appropriations, Education and Labor, Financial Services, and Transportation and Infrastructure Committees. In the latter two scenarios, Republican majorities have made moderate to somewhat significant changes to Energy and Commerce, Natural Resources, and Veterans’ Affairs Committees. House Administration, Rules, and Ethics have remained the same. Overall, in recent years, House Republican majorities have generally sought to downsize committees, and this is true even when they have had much larger majorities.
Although recent Republican majorities have trended towards downsizing, it is possible that Republicans could maintain current committee sizes and the ratios simply flip. While uncontested GOP committee chairs and Democratic committee ranking members have been announced, all contested GOP committee chair races will be determined after the Speaker is elected. Under its rules, the House must elect standing committees within seven days after the start of the new Congress. Subcommittee leadership and assignments are typically announced closer to the end of January.
In addition to Committee ratios, the House could see Committee numbers and sizes change. House Republicans have indicated their intention of a Select Committee on China. Democrats’ Select Committees on the Climate Crisis and Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol will almost certainly be eliminated.
To see our House analysis, please click here. (Last Updated 1/10/23)
Senate: Democrats will start the 118th Congress with 51 seats, including three Independents, two of whom caucus with Democrats – Sens. Angus King (I-ME) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) – and one who is likely to vote most often with Democrats, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ). Republicans will start with 49 seats, which will temporarily go down to 48 seats on January 8 when Sen. Ben Sasse’s (R-NE) retirement becomes official. Unlike the House, the Senate has an official rule that dictates committee sizes, but in practice, the Senate does not adhere to those restrictions. Instead, committee sizes and ratios are negotiated between party leaders. Ratios tend to reflect how many more seats the majority has than the minority.
Like the House, the main question is one of committee size and ratio due to the tight margins. It is possible that Democrats could maintain committee sizes while opting for a +1 advantage, but there are several historical examples that could help provide additional insight on these factors:
Closest Match to 118th Congress: Like the House, the Senate make-up of the 107th Senate (2001-2003) is a close match to the incoming 118th Senate. About six months into this Congress, one Senator changed his party affiliation to Independent, which gave Democrats a two-seat margin overall. Every committee had a one-seat margin, except for Ethics. Compared to the 117th Congress, Senate committees sizes in the 107th Congress were as follows: Agriculture (-1), Appropriations (-1), Armed Services (-1), Banking (-3), Budget (+1), Commerce (-5), Energy and Natural Resources (-3), EPW (-1), Ethics (same), Finance (-7), Foreign Relations (-3), HELP (-1), Indian Affairs (-3), Intelligence (-1), Judiciary (-3), Rules (-1), Small Business (-1), and Veterans’ Affairs (-3).
Most Recent Match to 118th Congress: The 110th Senate (2007–2009) is another close match to the incoming Congress. Democrats also had a two-seat margin, including one Independent-Democrat and one Independent who caucused with Democrats. Every committee had a one-seat margin, except for Ethics. Compared to the 117th Congress, Senate committees sizes in the 110th Congress were as follows: Agriculture (-1), Appropriations (-1), Armed Services (-1), Banking (-3), Budget (+1), Commerce (-5), Energy and Natural Resources (-3), EPW (-1), Ethics (same), Finance (-7), Foreign Relations (-1), HELP (-1), Homeland Security (+3), Indian Affairs (-3), Intelligence (-1), Judiciary (-3), Rules (-1), Small Business (-1), and Veterans’ Affairs (-3).
Most Recent Democratic Majority Prior to 117th Congress: Before winning the Senate in the 117th Congress, Senate Democrats had last held a majority in the 113th Senate (2013–2015). This is an insightful comparison, as the 113th Congress was divided with Republicans controlling the House and Democrats controlling the Senate. Senate Democrats held an eight-seat margin overall, including two Independents who caucused with Democrats. Nearly every committee had a two-seat margin. Compared to the 117th Congress, Senate committees sizes in the 113th Congress were as follows: Agriculture (-2), Appropriations (same), Armed Services (same), Banking (-4), Budget (same), Commerce (-4), Energy and Natural Resources (+2), EPW (-2), Ethics (same), Finance (-4), Foreign Relations (-4), HELP (same), Homeland Security (+2), Indian Affairs (-2), Intelligence (-1), Judiciary (-4), Rules (same), Small Business (-2), and Veterans’ Affairs (-4).
Similar to the House scenarios, the Senate comparisons are not perfect, but there are several important observations. Democratic majorities with at least a two-seat margin have historically sought to decrease the size of committees. Commerce, Science and Transportation as well as Finance have seen the largest reductions. However, Banking, Energy and Natural Resources, Judiciary, and Veterans’ Affairs have also seen moderate decreases. That being said, even when committee sizes have gone down, Democratic majorities have approved committees that reflect the majority-minority ratio.
Again, is possible that Senate Democrats could maintain more or less 117th Congress committee sizes with a +1 advantage on committees. In this case, several Republican Members could be bumped from their committees, including Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN) from Appropriations and Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) from Energy and Natural Resources. Given that the House will be controlled by Republicans and one Member – Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) – is no longer caucusing with Democrats, leadership could seek greater margins on some committees, which could bump additional incumbents from committees on both sides of the aisle.
As noted previously, several key committees will have new leadership for either both or one party. This will cause a chain reaction in subcommittee leadership on certain committees.
In addition to committee sizes and ratios, there are a number of rules surrounding A, Super A, and B Committees that will constrain Members and could mean they have to give up certain committee spots. Senate Rules broadly dictate what is and is not permitted for all Members, but each party has additional rules. Democrats do not publish their committee assignment rules, which makes it much more difficult to predict if Members will stay or leave certain committees. The Republican Conference does publish it rules and tends to rely on a ranking system and seniority to determine assignments. In addition, Republican freshmen Members with prior service in the House, Senate, or as state governor have seniority over other Republican freshmen in committee picks.
To see our Senate analysis, please click here. (Last Updated 1/10/23)