Plurus Strategies Weekly Update: Reconciliation, COVID Relief, Appropriations, & More Primaries
Reconciliation
Following last week’s announcement that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) had clinched a deal on reconciliation, there has been a flurry of activity in the Senate this week as Democrats aim to pass their healthcare, clean energy, and tax package before skipping town for the August recess. The timeline is tight, and we have been hearing all week that Leader Schumer has been telling Members to prepare to work through the weekend.
Though most Democrats seem to be rallying around the Inflation Reduction Act, there are several hurdles that must still be overcome. First, the Senate parliamentarian continues to review drug pricing provisions for compliance with the Byrd rule. The Senate has even adjusted its schedule this week to make time in the mornings for meetings with the parliamentarian. It is our understanding that Republicans are doing everything in their power to make the case that numerous provisions should not be permitted to proceed to the floor under reconciliation. We are hearing proposed penalties against drug companies for raising prices for those with private health insurance have attracted some ire. While the parliamentarian’s review of this piece of the package may be taking longer than expected, the good news might be that many of the energy tax breaks included in the new agreement between Leader Schumer and Sen. Manchin had previously been vetted by the parliamentarian. However, there might still be parliamentary skepticism of conditions on electric vehicle (EV) tax credits and Interior Department permitting for energy projects.
Most Democratic staffers tell us they anticipate the reconciliation bill reaching the floor before it is finalized. In some cases, Members continue to try to add provisions to the package, such as legislation that would subject insulin to government negotiations for lower prices and cap out of pocket costs for insulin at $35 per month. However, these provisions would also have to undergo a Byrd review and could encounter obstacles. There are also likely to be hasty changes in response to ongoing critique by the parliamentarian. While the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has released an initial score for the package, finding that the Inflation Reduction Act would lead to a net deficit decrease of roughly $102 billion over ten years, the score could change as the bill is continuously tweaked.
Second, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) continues to keep us all guessing whether she will vote for the package and has indicated that she will wait for the parliamentarian’s ruling before deciding how to vote. Sen. Manchin made the rounds on Sunday shows, but his presentations appeared targeted to an audience of one: Sen. Sinema, who was not consulted on Leader Schumer and Sen. Manchin’s negotiations and has previously expressed opposition to some of the tax pay-fors included in the reconciliation proposal. Since then, Sens. Sinema and Manchin have been engaged in conversations and trading paper. Among the changes we understand Sen. Sinema might be seeking are the elimination of the provision that would get rid of the carried interest loophole, $5 billion in drought resiliency funding, and a narrowing of applicability of the 15 percent corporate minimum tax. While the political pressure for Sen. Sinema is high, especially with both House moderates and progressives coming around to support the deal, she continues to be difficult to read in this situation.
Next, assuming Sen. Sinema can get on board, Democrats will need perfect attendance with all 50 Members voting for the package so that Vice President Kamala Harris can break the tie and move the legislation on a majority vote. Positive COVID tests and other unexpected health issues could still upend Democrats’ desire to pass the reconciliation bill quickly. In fact, prior to this week, it had been nearly four weeks since the full Democratic caucus was present and voting. This is likely why we saw Leader Schumer move this week’s Democratic caucus lunch to a virtual forum in hopes of preventing new COVID infections. Working in Democrats’ favor, Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) returned to the Senate this week following a second hip surgery and Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) has recently finished his COVID quarantine.
Not only will all Democratic Senators have to be in Washington, but they will also need to withstand the forthcoming vote-a-rama. Given that Republicans remain frustrated by the surprise announcement of a reconciliation agreement, we expect GOP amendments to run the gamut and make moving the reconciliation vehicle as painful as possible for Democrats. It is not just Republicans that might seek to use the vote-a-rama for political advantage. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has hinted this week that he might offer amendments to expand the bill. Even if some amendments that are politically tough for Democrats squeak by, Leader Schumer can design a wraparound amendment to strip out problematic provisions that pass during the vote-a-rama. However, Sen. Manchin has been a longtime critic of this tactic, which could impact the overall dynamics as the reconciliation process plays out.
Finally, an outstanding issue remains in that President Joe Biden, Leader Schumer, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) have promised Sen. Manchin that Congress will pursue a federal permitting reform bill later this year. The parameters of the agreement include the president prioritizing 25 energy projects a year for review, setting maximum timelines for environmental reviews, and mandating federal government activity needed to complete the Mountain Valley Pipeline through West Virginia. Because such provisions cannot be considered under reconciliation rules, they will need to move under regular order. While it would seem intuitive that the GOP would support permitting reform, it is uncertain whether the politics around reconciliation and the feeling of bad blood towards Democrats will trump Republicans’ ability to support the effort. Leader Schumer has indicated he will attempt to attach the permitting legislation to the continuing resolution (CR).
Most Democratic Senate staffers we have consulted are predicting final Senate passage of the reconciliation measure on Sunday or Monday. Assuming the upper chamber imminently passes the package, it is expected that Speaker Pelosi will call House Members back next week to vote on the bill. President Biden is scheduled to sign the PACT on Monday and the CHIPS and Science Act on Tuesday. Since there are Members who are likely to return to Washington to join these events, we are hearing from House chiefs that the lower chamber could vote on reconciliation as soon as Tuesday. We are hearing some nervousness about being able to get flights on such short notice, especially as many Democrats are likely to want to vote in person, rather than by proxy. President Biden may be able to sign the package into law next week. Due to provisions extending Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, in a major win for Democrats, enactment will stop notices of healthcare premium increases from being sent out just before the November elections.
COVID Relief
With President Biden continuing to test positive for COVID, the pandemic has been forced back into the spotlight. We are increasingly hearing that Democrats remain interested in passing a new COVID supplemental and the latest chatter is that they might seek to do so by attaching it to either the reconciliation package, something Sen. Manchin has indicated he is reluctant to support, or the CR.
In case you missed it, last week, Sens. Leahy, Patty Murray (D-WA), and Chris Coons (D-DE) proposed a $21 billion COVID supplemental intended to prepare the country for the next phase of the COVID pandemic. The bill provides $16 billion in emergency funding through the Public Health and Social Services Emergency Fund (PHSSEF), including $9 billion for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) for advanced research and development (R&D), manufacturing, production, purchase, and distribution of vaccines, therapeutics, tests, diagnostics, and medical products and suppliers; $6.25 billion for HHS to distribute vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics in response to new variants or surges in infections; and $750 million for clinical trials for vaccines focused on emerging COVID strains. Additionally, the bill includes $5 billion for the global response to the pandemic.
As you might recall, back in May, efforts to move $10 billion in supplemental COVID appropriations failed when they became linked to GOP demands for a vote on the Biden Administration’s plans to lift Title 42 immigration restrictions. At this point, especially given the tensions in the political environment created by Leader Schumer and Sen. Manchin’s deal on reconciliation, Republicans not only remain skeptical of the need for more COVID money but are also not inclined to hand Democrats another win. The dynamics could force Democrats to find a way to move COVID resources on a party line vote or back Republicans into a corner and force them to support more assistance or else shut down the government just before the midterm elections.
Appropriations
As you know, at the end of last week, despite plans to move all 12 fiscal year 2023 (FY23) funding measures on the floor before the August recess, the House left town with only one appropriations minibus including the Agriculture; Financial Services and General Government (FSGG), Energy and Water; Interior; Transportation, Housing, and Urban Development (THUD); and Military Construction-Veterans Affairs (MilCon-VA) bills clearing the chamber. This leaves the chamber’s work on the Defense; Homeland Security; Legislative Branch; State and Foreign Operations (SFOPs); Commerce-Justice-Science (CJS); and Labor-Health and Human Services (HHS) bills to the fall.
Late last week, the Senate Appropriation Committee posted drafts of all 12 of its FY23 spending bills totaling $1.7 trillion, a signal the committee does not intend to hold markups and will ultimately use these drafts to go to conference with the House. Republicans criticized the bills for the inclusion of policy riders that are unlikely to make it into a final appropriations package, including on issues related to abortion, climate change, and immigration. Additionally, the Defense bill includes a $30 billion increase over the president’s budget request, roughly a nine percent increase in defense spending, even though the “four corners” have yet to strike an agreement on FY23 topline defense and nondefense toplines. The nondefense bills posted by the Senate Appropriations Committee represent a ten percent increase.
It remains a certainty that a CR will be needed to fund the government into the lame duck. The CR is expected to become the vehicle for items that might fall out of reconciliation, such as the energy permitting measures and COVID relief noted above. The CR could also carry extensions of other provisions set to expire on September 30, such as Federal Communications Commission (FCC) spectrum auction authority, Food and Drug Administration (FDA) user fees, and flood insurance, among other programs. The CR will likely expire during the lame duck, keeping appropriations on the agenda.
Republicans are increasingly sounding the alarm that passage of a longer-term CR later this year is now a real possibility. Some argue that Republicans are so frustrated by Leader Schumer and Sen. Manchin announcing a deal on reconciliation just hours after Senate passage of the CHIPS and Science Act that they will be uncooperative on most policy priorities for the remainder of this Congress, including appropriations. In our view, it remains to be seen how long GOP anger over reconciliation will persist. How obstructionist Republicans might be during the lame duck will also be predicated on the outcome of the midterms. If Republicans lose what has the potential to be red waves in both chambers, perhaps they will try to block anything from moving at the end of the year. However, assuming Republicans win control of at least the House, our instincts tell us that current GOP frustrations may be short-lived. Further, we think Republicans will be eager to pass a sizeable omnibus on Democrats’ watch and to scratch this item off their to-do list before inheriting a caucus that it likely to be more difficult to manage next year.
One budgetary issue that could get kicked to next year is the debt limit. As you know, at the end of last year, Congress raised the debt limit by $2.5 trillion, thinking this would be enough to punt the issue to the 118th Congress. New projections out this week suggest that Congressional action to lift or suspend the debt limit may not be necessary until Q3 2023. However, for the same reasons that Congress might want to negotiate an omnibus during the lame duck, there may also be interest in addressing the debt limit later this year.
National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)
The House passed its NDAA in June, but the timeline for action on the Senate NDAA remains uncertain. Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) has indicated he hopes to see the NDAA on the Senate floor in September, although September is also now shaping up to be incredibly busy as Congress looks to advance priorities before the midterm elections that will not make the cut before the August recess.
We are increasingly hearing concerns that the NDAA could be crowded out of the fall agenda, potentially creating a scenario like last year where the Senate never passed its bill and compromise measure was negotiated informally between the House and Senate. The one thing that is certain is that the timeline for the NDAA is slipping. Regardless, we remain confident this Congress will not break the trend of the NDAA being signed into law for 61 consecutive years.
Ukraine
On Monday, the Biden Administration announced $550 million in new U.S. military assistance for Ukraine. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin discussed the package with Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov on Wednesday. The announcement included more ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and additional artillery ammunition. With this latest tranche of assistance, the U.S. has committed approximately $8.8 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden Administration, much of it drawn from the $19 billion in military aid approved by Congress in May. Following last week’s classified House and Senate briefings for Members, we continue to hear the administration is preparing another Ukraine supplemental appropriations request that is likely to include economic and humanitarian assistance, in addition to more military aid. We do not expect any potential action on this package until the fall.
Aside from military assistance, Congress remains interested in designating Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. As you may have seen, last week the Senate passed a non-binding resolution by unanimous consent calling on Secretary of State Blinken to make the designation. Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who sponsored the resolution, gifted a copy to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a visit to Kyiv earlier this month. Speaker Pelosi has also warned Secretary of State Antony Blinken that the House would act in the absence of designation issued by the administration. Those efforts ramped up this week with Reps. Ted Lieu (D-CA), Joe Wilson (R-SC), Jared Golden (D-ME), Adam Kinzinger (R-IL), and Tom Malinowski (D-NJ) introducing bipartisan legislation officially designating Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, though the preference would still be for Secretary Blinken to make the designation on his own. There is some speculation Secretary Blinken may be reluctant to make the designation during negotiations with Russia on a prisoner swap that would bring Brittney Griner and Paul Whelan home.
In the meantime, on Tuesday, the State Department and Treasury Department announced new sanctions targeting Russian oligarchs and state-owned entities, bringing the U.S. sanctions regime into alliance with Russian sanctions issued by other allies and partners. The new wave of sanctions also targets 24 Russian defense and technology companies, including defense-related R&D institutions, semiconductor producers, and advanced computing and electronics entities. Visa restrictions were also imposed on 893 Russian officials and 31 foreign government officials who have acted in support of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.
Tensions between Democrats and Republicans early in the week made it questionable whether a time agreement might be possible for the Senate to vote on the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO ahead of the August recess. However, there was finally a breakthrough on Wednesday. The Senate approved an amendment from Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) clarifying that NATO countries should contribute at least two percent of gross domestic product (GDP) to defense spending and defeated an amendment from Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) to clarify that a declaration of war by Congress would preempt Article 5. The full chamber then approved both countries joining NATO on a 95-1 vote. The U.S. now joins more than half of the 30 member countries that have approved Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO accession.
Earlier this week, the first ship to carry Ukrainian grain left the port of Odessa, which was attacked by the Russians to coincide with the signing of an agreement brokered with the U.N. and Turkey to help move food supplies out of Ukraine to the rest of the world. The Russians also launched their first missile strike on the greater Kyiv area in weeks, striking a military unit located just outside the city, prompting a Ukrainian counterstrike on the Kherson region. The port city was one of the first to fall to Russian control at the very start of the war.
Political Tidbits
Retirements
On Wednesday afternoon, Rep. Jackie Walorski (R-IN) passed away in a car accident. Three others were also killed in the crash, including her Communications Director Emma Thomson and District Director Zach Potts. Rep. Walorski had represented Indiana’s 2nd District since 2013 and was Ranking Member of the House Ethics Committee. Prior to serving in Congress, she was a member of the Indiana House of Representatives. Rep. Walorski won her renomination in the primary unopposed on May 3, and a special election is likely to be held to fill the rest of her term.
This week’s primaries increased the number of Members not returning in January. Michigan held an intraparty Democratic race for the 11th District and a competitive GOP primary for the 3rd District. By Wednesday, it was clear both Reps. Andy Levin (D-MI) and Peter Meijer (R-MI) will not be returning to Congress next year. There is only one incumbent vs. incumbent primary left this midterm season between Democratic Reps. Jerry Nadler (D-NY) and Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) for New York’s 12th District. There are several Trump-backed challengers who could create close races for some Republican incumbents, but there is only one more primary election for the six Republicans who voted for President Donald Trump’s second impeachment and decided to run for re-election: Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY), who faces a strong Trump-backed GOP challenger. As of today, here are where numbers stand of Members not returning in the 118th Congress:
1 Senate Democrat: 1 full committee chair (Appropriations)
6 Senate Republicans: 6 full committee ranking members (Appropriations; Armed Services; Banking; Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP); Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs (HSGAC); and Rules)
37 House Democrats: 4 full committee chairs (Budget; Ethics; Science, Space, and Technology; and Transportation)
28 House Republicans: 3 full committee ranking members (Ethics; Homeland Security; and Ways and Means)
Elections
Although the Hill is quieting down for August recess, the primary season was in full swing this week with voters from Arizona, Missouri, Michigan, Washington, and Tennessee heading to the polls. There was no shortage of critical races on the ballot, from the GOP primary for Governor in Michigan to a consequential Senate match-up in Arizona. Certain dynamics played out on Tuesday followed by Tennessee on Thursday, such as Trump vs. establishment Republicans and well-funded primaries for Senate and gubernatorial seats that have been and will continue to be in the spotlight.
However, on Tuesday night, the high-stakes referendum on abortion rights in Kansas, the first in the nation since Roe was overturned, stood at the forefront. A “yes” vote on the ballot would have changed the state constitution, opening the doors for more restrictive abortion laws, but in a surprising move for the red state, 58 percent of Kansans voted “no” on the measure. The landslide vote was likely the most significant result of the night and signals that abortion could make a difference in a handful of very tight races. Of course, other issues also remain at the forefront of voters’ minds this week, including inflation, the impact of COVID-19, border security, and public safety to name a few. We tracked the following races:
Arizona
Across its two key primaries for Senate and Governor, as well as for the multiple candidates down the ballot, Arizona’s primary races saw over $159 million spent on traditional media and Connected TV. Democrats may presently hold both Senate seats in the state, but the GOP remains strong in the Copper State. All House Republican incumbents won their primaries on Tuesday night. The Senate seat in cycle is considered to be one of this year’s most competitive. During redistricting, Arizona kept its Congressional districts at nine but saw some significant geographical changes that made a number of those seats more competitive, namely the 1st and 2nd Districts.
Senate: Incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) won his seat in a special election in 2020, showing a shift in Arizona, which used to be one of the nation’s most conservative states. He had an uncontested primary on Tuesday and continues to run a strong campaign, with nearly $25 million in cash on hand as of July 15. However, the general election is on track to be one of the most watched in the nation, and Sen. Kelly is considered one of the Democrats’ more vulnerable incumbents. After weeks of battling other GOP candidates, Blake Masters, a close ally of President Trump and a former employee of billionaire Peter Thiel, handily defeated his primary challengers. Masters’ profile as a young, Trumpian, first-time politician stands in contrast to centrism shown by Sen. Kelly. The election remains a toss-up and is certain to be a bellwether race for the Democratic party both this year and in 2024.
AZ-1: Incumbent Republican Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ) won over challenger Elijah Norton and Trump-supporter Josh Barnett in the GOP primary. There had been some speculation over Rep. Schweikert’s future as a result of his 11 House ethics investigations, which Norton had targeted in his campaign. However, a boost from President Trump in June seems to have curbed concerns. He will face Jevin Hodge, who won the Democratic nomination. Although the seat has been rated as competitive, the Phoenix-area seat is red-leaning.
AZ-2: Incumbent Democratic Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-AZ) is considered the most endangered House member in Arizona this year. President Biden narrowly won the district in 2020, but according to new lines, he would have lost it by eight percentage points. Rep. O’Halleran, a co-chair of the moderate Blue Dog Coalition, has emphasized that he previously represented parts of the new Congressional district when he served in the state legislature, suggesting he may not have as much trouble in winning over voters. Nevertheless, redistricting has made the district an attractive target for the GOP. Trump-backed Eli Crane, a former Navy SEAL and entrepreneur, had been leading the field in fundraising for weeks. He won the Republican nomination with nearly 40 percent of the vote. The seat has been rated as lean Republican.
AZ-4: Incumbent Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton’s D-AZ) 4th District is considered highly competitive. Six candidates ran to be the Republican nominee. Kelly Cooper, who reported approximately $4 million raised as of July 13, was leading Tanya Contreras Wheeles, a former staffer to former Arizona Sen. Martha McSally, with 65 percent of the vote recorded as of Wednesday afternoon. Conservative groups continue to take aim at Rep. Stanton. However, the race is rated as leaning Democratic.
AZ-6: With Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ) retiring, the 6th District is the only open seat in Arizona on the ballot this year and is being viewed as a key pickup opportunity for the GOP in November. Former State Senator Kirsten Engel won the Democratic nomination and will face Juan Ciscomani, a senior advisor to Gov. Doug Ducey, who won the Republican nomination. However, while President Biden won the district by 0.3 percentage points, the new district lines incorporate many more Republican strongholds, leading political pundits to shift its rating to lean Republican.
Gubernatorial: The gubernatorial race is the second most expensive primary in the state with $24 million spent so far. Term-limited Republican Gov. Ducey endorsed Karrin Taylor Robson to succeed him. However, Trump-backed Kari Lake narrowed the race between the GOP candidates. The race had yet to be called by midday Thursday, but Lake was leading Taylor Robson by about 12,000 votes. Katie Hobbs, who made a name for herself as Arizona Secretary of State defending the 2020 election, won the Democratic nomination with nearly 80 percent of the vote.
Kansas
Senate: Incumbent Republican Sen. Jerry Moran (R-KS) won the Republican nomination with over 80 percent of the vote and will face Democrat Mark Holland, the former mayor of Kansas City, in the fall. The one term mayor faces a likely insurmountable challenge against the sitting Senator. Sen. Moran first won in 2010 and was reelected in 2016, beating his Democratic opponents by 70 percent and 62 percent of the vote, respectively.
KS-3: Incumbent Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids (D-KS) is one of this cycle’s vulnerable Frontline Democrats. Rep. Davids won the primary unopposed with $3.5 million reported on hand, but she faces an uphill battle in the coming months. Republicans consolidated around businesswoman Amanda Adkins in the two-person primary for the 3rd District. Adkins, who is a former executive at Cerner, chaired the state’s Republican Party a decade ago and was the 2020 GOP nominee. She lost to Rep. Davids by ten percentage points. Redistricting has made the district much more competitive, now incorporating conservative, rural parts in the west of the state in addition to left-leaning Kansas City suburbs. Super PACs aligned with the GOP have already spent over $275,000 backing Adkins, while Democrats have attacked her for her allyship with Kansas’ unpopular former GOP Gov. Sam Brownback.
Missouri
Senate: Following Sen. Roy Blunt’s (R-MO) retirement announcement, a field of nearly 20 Republican candidates, including two Erics, vied for the open seat. Attorney Eric Schmitt won the GOP nomination for Senate, representing both a victory for President Trump and a setback for establishment Republicans. While Trump-endorsed candidates boost the former president’s political legitimacy, many of his candidates, particularly for Senate, are perceived as inexperienced or bucking the establishment. For instance, Schmitt, who was endorsed by Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Mike Lee (R-UT), said last week he would not support Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) for Leader. There was a large field vying for the Democratic nomination, with over ten candidates challenging one another. Beer heiress Trudy Busch Valentine came out on top with 43 percent of the vote. She will face Schmitt and independent John Wood in the general election in the fall.
MO-4: Rep. Vicky Hartzler’s (R-MO) pursuit of the open Senate seat created a crowded Republican primary for the 4th District. Former Fox 4 anchor Mark Alford won the four-person GOP primary with 35 percent of the vote. Democrat Jack Truman won his party’s primary uncontested. The seat has been rated as solid Republican.
MO-7: Similarly, Rep. Billy Long’s (R-MO) decision to run for Senate also created a crowded GOP primary in the 7th District. State Senator Eric Burlison won the GOP nomination with 38 percent of the vote. Three candidates sought the Democratic nomination, with Kristen Radaker-Sheafer ultimately winning. However, her campaign has reported less than $2,100 in fundraising, and the district is rated as solid Republican.
Michigan
MI-3: Incumbent Rep. Meijer, one of 10 House Republicans to vote for impeachment, was ousted by Trump-endorsed candidate John Gibbs, a former Assistant HUD Secretary. Rep. Meijer becomes the second of these Republicans to lose reelection after South Carolina Rep. Tom Rice lost to a Trump-backed challenger in June. Gibbs’ win may improve prospects for Democrats. Democrat Hillary Scholten, who ran uncontested on Tuesday, lost to Rep. Meijer by six points in the 2020 general election. The seat has been rated as a toss-up.
MI-8: Three Republicans were vying to secure the nomination and opportunity to face incumbent Democrat Rep. Dan Kildee (D-MI). Tuesday’s winner was Paul Junge, who lost to Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) in 2020 by three percentage points and has a long resume as a television journalist, businessman, and district attorney. He was also named a Young Gun and worked at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) during the Trump Administration. Rep. Kildee has been airing ads for several weeks, raising $2.9 million for his campaign. However, the district is being viewed by Republicans as favorable to them with the new district lines encompassing more conservative portions of the state. As of July 13, Junge had only raised about $540,000, but that number is likely to climb. The general election has been rated as a toss-up.
MI-10: Redistricting prompted Rep. Andy Levin (D-MI) to move districts, leaving the 10th District open. A pool of Democratic candidates faced each other to secure a spot to take on Trump-endorsed frontrunner and former Army helicopter pilot John James who had easily cruised to victory on Tuesday. James had unsuccessfully run as the GOP nominee for Senate in 2018 and 2020. Retired Circuit Court Judge Carl Marlinga ultimately won the Democratic nomination with nearly 48 percent of the vote. The new 10th District is marginally more Democratic leaning. President Trump won the vote in 2020 by about one percentage point, and many believe that James will have the same advantage in the new district in November.
MI-11: In the state’s 11th District, Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) defeated fellow Democratic Rep. Levin in another intraparty race representing the party’s fight between progressives and moderates. Both have served in the House since 2019. The primary became heated and garnered attention and funding from across the nation. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) had backed Stevens and its new super PAC, United Democracy Project (UDP), spent more than $4 million to boost her bid. UDP and AIPAC’s spending prompted another pro-Israel group, the liberal J Street, to throw their weight behind Rep. Levin, giving $700,000 in a July ad buy for him. The race had brought high-profile Democrats to Michigan, including former presidential candidates Sens. Sanders and Warren. Notably, however, more of Rep. Stevens’ current district makes up the new 11th District than Rep. Levin’s, and Rep. Stevens sailed to victory by 20 points. It will be the first time that a member of the Levin family has not been in Congress since the 1970s. Rep. Levin succeeded his father, Sandy, and his uncle Carl was a long-time Senator. Republican Mark Ambrose won the nomination for his party, but the district is rated as likely Democrat.
MI-13: The retirement of Rep. Brenda Lawrence (D-MI) created an open seat in the reconfigured 13th District. While not considered a competitive general election, nine Democratic candidates faced off including state Sen. Adam Hollier, state Rep. Shri Thanedar, and former Detroit City Council woman Sharon McPhail. Thanedar won, beating Hollier by about 3,800 votes, and will face Republican Matell Bivings, who ran unopposed and has worked as a liaison with the Detroit Economic Growth Corporation. The district is a solidly Democratic area, and Thanedar is almost certain to win.
Gubernatorial: Incumbent Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s path to winning reelection had been made somewhat clearer by leading GOP candidates getting disqualified from the primary due to a variety of reasons, including involvement in the January 6 attack and forged nomination petition signatures. Five Republicans did qualify for Tuesday's primary, including the eventual winner, conservative commentator Tudor Dixon who had the support of former Education Secretary Betsy DeVos and received a late endorsement from President Trump. Dixon had had a double-digit lead in polling over the race's final week. Gov. Whitmer’s re-election is seen as a key stronghold against a Republican sweep in Michigan, where the GOP controls both legislative chambers.
Washington
Washington State holds open primaries, meaning the top two vote-getters advance to the November ballot, regardless of party.
Senate: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Murray easily advanced to the general election as she seeks her sixth term, as did Republican Tiffany Smiley, a first-time political candidate from Pasco, Washington. The race has been rated as likely Democratic.
WA-3: With only 65 percent of the vote counted by Thursday morning, it remained unclear if incumbent Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA) will win the Republican nomination. Joe Kent was trailing behind Rep. Herrera Beutler by about 4,000 votes. If she wins, she will become only the second House Republican who voted in favor of impeachment to survive the primary season after Rep. David Valadao (R-CA). Maria Perez won the Democratic nomination with 32 percent of the vote. The seat is solidly Republican.
WA-4: Incumbent Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse’s (R-WA) primary only had 57 percent of the vote in as of Thursday. He held a narrow lead with 27 percent of the vote, followed by Doug White, the only Democrat in the race. He would become the third Republican, after Reps. Herrera Beutler and Valadao, to survive his primary after voting in favor of President Trump’s second impeachment. This seat is also solidly Republican.
WA-8: Washington’s 8th District is likely the state’s only competitive district, and incumbent Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier (D-WA) faced several challengers this primary season. Rep. Schrier secured her spot with 49 percent of the vote. However, as of Wednesday, her general ballot challenger remained unclear. 2020 State Attorney General nominee Matt Larkin has 16 percent, while King County Councilmember Reagan Dunn and 2020 8th District nominee Jesse Jensen both have 15 percent.
Tennessee
Primary voters in the Volunteer State head to the polls today. One notable race we’ll be watching is the 5th District. Incumbent Rep. Cooper announced his retirement in January after new maps came out making the seat red. State Sen. Heidi Campbell is running uncontested in the Democratic primary, and there are a bevy of Republicans vying for the nomination. Today’s primary will also determine which Democrat will face incumbent Gov. Bill Lee, who is running uncontested in the GOP primary, in November.
August is a busy season for elections. Looking ahead to next week, Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, Wisconsin, and Hawaii will hold primaries.