Plurus Strategies Weekly Update: USICA/America COMPETES Conference, Reconciliation, FY23 NDAA, and Other Activity in Washington
CHIPS Funding/USICA/America COMPETES Act Conference
Given Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) recent efforts to impose a stop work order on the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act (USICA)/America COMPETES Act conference while Democrats simultaneously pursue reconciliation, we have been engaging our contacts for insights on how the new dynamics impact the prospects and timeline for action on a comprehensive competitiveness package that includes CHIPS funding. We are picking up a lot of Democratic frustration around how Leader McConnell’s move impacts the state of play. We are hearing that Republicans are no longer speaking with their Democratic counterparts about the competitiveness package. As a result, Democrats involved in the conference committee were directed to provide leadership with a locked down proposal at the end of last week that, “based on inferences,” captures where Democrats felt like negotiations were headed with Republicans.
We are hearing numerous issues remain unresolved. While we had been hearing that the CHIPS language has been mostly finished for several weeks, the day before bill text was due, Republicans presented new “guardrail proposals” for the CHIPS Act funding. After speaking with Democratic House committee staffers, it is our impression that these changes are under serious consideration. Committee staff indicated they are soliciting feedback from industry on how these revisions might impact companies’ interest in CHIPS incentives. Beyond these changes, the House Science Committee is also pushing to get their new semiconductor workforce legislation, the CHIPPING IN Act, included as part of the package. Despite the GOP stop work order limiting conversations between Democrats and Republicans, GOP staffers have indicated they are still speaking with industry about these proposals.
Given Leader McConnell’s threat to hold USICA hostage over reconciliation, Democrats are now struggling with how they might advance a compromise bill. One option that is getting a lot of attention is the idea that the House might take up and pass the Senate-passed USICA bill. Progressives are beginning to suggest that if this ends up being the path forward, they will seek something in exchange for their votes on the bill. While there are some moderate Democrats who might be willing to vote for USICA, Democratic staffers tell us they worry there might not be enough votes for USICA to pass the House. The Democratic House committee staffers who we spoke with emphasized that there is no appetite for this approach in the lower chamber and that House Democratic leadership’s current strategy is to try to put together a “USICA-lite” package that can attract enough House GOP support to put Leader McConnell in a difficult position.
If the House could pass a compromise or “revised USICA bill,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) might try to force a vote to see if Republicans will break with Leader McConnell. For example, given that Leader McConnell and 17 other Republicans previously voted for USICA, Leader Schumer could put a House-passed compromise bill on the floor and dare Republicans to vote against it. Similarly, he could attach it to some other must pass vehicle, such as the continuing resolution (CR), and dare Republicans to shut down the government. One other option that a Senate Republican put on our radar is that if reconciliation succeeds, there is over $80 billion in instructions for the Commerce Committee, which could potentially create a pathway for Democrats to fund CHIPS via reconciliation. However, Democrats who we consulted warned that even exploring the possibility of using this money for CHIPS would “lead several others to come calling for this funding.”
The one thing that is clear is that the timeline appears to be slipping and nearly unanimously staffers tell us they do not see resolution before the August recess. GOP staffers are telling us that if reconciliation falls apart, Republicans will quickly return to the negotiating table. If this were to be the case, based on where things stood before the stop work order went into effect, GOP staff is reporting that “finishing up conversations” might be possible in roughly two weeks. In the meantime, several Democratic staffers are of the view that President Joe Biden and Democrats in Congress would prefer to pass a reconciliation bill that covers issues like Medicare and climate change over the competitiveness legislation, if forced to choose. As Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) continues to negotiate with Leader Schumer, he has also objected to Leader McConnell’s move to block the USICA/America COMPETES Act negotiations over reconciliation.
Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo has been very vocal about the need to move CHIPS funding expeditiously and has accused Leader McConnell of “playing politics” with U.S. national security. Yesterday, she even expressed support for moving CHIPS funding on its own before the August recess. Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) has endorsed a similar approach, calling on Congress to abandon the broader package to focus on passing CHIPS funding within the next ten days. However, because there continue to be outstanding issues with the CHIPS language, we question if things are at a point where narrow action in this timeframe is even feasible.
Since it is now a real possibility that we could get to the midterms without CHIPS funding passing as part of a competitiveness package, we have started probing on prospects for action in the lame duck and beyond. While there is still talk about potentially trying to strip out CHIPS language and move it separately in the lame duck, perhaps by attaching it to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) or an omnibus appropriations bill, there are mixed views on the prospects. Members on both sides of the aisle, such as Sens. Jack Reed (D-RI) and Marco Rubio (R-FL), have expressed support for potentially moving CHIPS funding on the NDAA. Support for this strategy could be bolstered by this week’s classified Senate and House briefings with Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Haines, Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks, and Secretary Raimondo on the national security implications of CHIPS. Others, like House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD), are rejecting this approach, at least for now. Several staffers have been quick to point out that this strategy failed last year. Republican staffers tell us that the GOP is unlikely to support a CHIPS-only package and Democrats worry that, like what we saw late last year, so many things would have to be added to a CHIPS-only bill to attract GOP support that you might end up losing the Democratic support needed for passage.
Late yesterday, we connected with a senior adviser at the Commerce Department who believes that CHIPS still gets done. Our instincts tell us that despite the political season complicating the path forward, pieces of the competitiveness package could move on other vehicles during the lame duck. Action before the end of the year could be crucial. Assuming the GOP performs well in the midterms, Senate Commerce Committee Republican staff indicated that CHIPS funding is very important for just a few of their members, so this is unlikely to be a priority for the broader GOP conference next year.
Reconciliation/BBB
Despite COVID keeping him quarantined in Brooklyn and Leader McConnell’s efforts to block competitiveness legislation over reconciliation, Leader Schumer continues to engage with Sen. Manchin on a narrow, Build Back Better (BBB)-like bill. Leader Schumer continues to say he is optimistic about putting a reconciliation bill on the floor before the August recess. We are hearing it is possible the Senate could extend this work period for one more week in August if it is necessary to finish reconciliation, which also begs the question of whether the House might also be in session in early August. Meanwhile, Sen. Manchin has made very clear that he views September 30, the day that reconciliation instructions expire, as the hard deadline for passing a deal.
Overall, Leader Schumer and Sen. Manchin are working towards a package that is likely to raise $1 trillion in revenue to be split between new spending and deficit reduction. Though pieces of the package have yet to be finalized, there has been some positive movement on the drug pricing component, which has now been shared with the parliamentarian for review. The “Byrd bath” on drug pricing language is likely to happen next week. We had been hearing that Leader Schumer and Sen. Manchin were also close to sharing language aimed at shoring up the solvency of the Medicare trust fund with the parliamentarian, but on Wednesday, Sen. Manchin suggested that the tax pay-fors may need some reconsideration, especially given this week’s new figures for inflation.
We are hearing that a tax title could also be nearing the point that it is ready to be sent to the parliamentarian soon. Rumors are that the 15 percent corporate minimum tax, the book minimum tax, and a tax on stock buybacks remain on the table, while a millionaire surtax could be on the chopping block. The idea of increased IRS enforcement to raise revenue also remains popular. While it has yet to be seen exactly what tax provisions will make it into a reconciliation measure, we envision that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) could have to whip her Members, especially moderates who are concerned about raising taxes in an election year and seeking the elimination of the $10,000 cap on the federal deduction for State and Local Tax (SALT).
It has been speculated that the most recent discussions between Leader Schumer and Sen. Manchin have focused on climate, including those that took place during a virtual meeting on Monday. Our sources believe that talks are centered on producing a climate component in the $300 billion to $350 billion range. However, details are still being ironed out related to penalties on methane emissions, Sen. Manchin’s opposition to direct payments to clean energy projects, and the structure of tax credits for electric vehicles (EVs). Sen. Manchin also reportedly continues to push for streamlined permitting for fossil fuels.
Another potential element of a reconciliation package that is still up for debate is the extension of Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits to subsidize healthcare premiums. We are increasingly hearing that Democrats view this issue as “a cliff” they must avoid going over before the elections. However, Sen. Manchin continues to oppose an extension, as he is pursuing a reconciliation measure that is entirely paid for over ten years. A compromise being floated is the potential scaling back of program eligibility with additional means testing. Bipartisan legislation proposed by Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Susan Collins (R-ME) to cap insulin prices is expected to move independently, and likely before Democrats take up reconciliation.
Perhaps in response to Sen. Manchin’s criticism of Leader McConnell’s latest maneuvers to hold up competitiveness legislation over reconciliation, Leader McConnell took to the floor earlier this week warning that energy and tax policies under consideration for the partisan reconciliation package would negatively impact West Virginians. While most of the spotlight has been on the talks between Leader Schumer and Sen. Manchin, we imagine that Leader Schumer is also working the phones with other key Members of the Democratic caucus ranging from moderate Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) to progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT).
FY23 NDAA
Though the environment in Washington is becoming increasingly partisan as we get closer to November, the NDAA is one vehicle that is moving with bipartisan support. On Tuesday, the House Rules Committee met to review roughly 1,200 NDAA amendments, ultimately adopting a structured rule for floor debate with 650 amendments made in order. The committee largely sidestepped amendments that would have been likely to result in fights over abortion, vaccine mandates, and Guantanamo Bay detainees. Except for a handful of amendments, including proposals to reduce topline spending that were defeated, most of these amendments are passing as part of en bloc packages to expedite floor consideration. House debate on the NDAA began yesterday. More votes on amendments are currently underway and a vote on final passage is likely this evening.
Also on Tuesday, the White House released its statement of administration policy (SAP) on the House NDAA. While the White House expressed concern with provisions in the House bill that would fund a sea-launched cruise missile program that it scrapped in its budget, create a Space National Guard, and impose an amphibious fleet mandate, along with noting other disagreements concerning retirement of platforms and procurement decisions, the SAP included no veto threat.
Despite Sen. Reed stating yesterday that he expects the Senate floor debate on the NDAA to take place in September, we would not be surprised if the defense bill becomes a candidate for floor action in July. Like the process in the House, we anticipate the Senate floor process will also be bipartisan. Democrats continue to struggle with attendance due Sen. Patrick Leahy’s (D-VT) hip surgery and Sens. Schumer and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) testing positive for COVID. We view the NDAA as one of the few must-pass items that could move without these Members present. As a reminder, we have yet to see the Senate NDAA text, which is unlikely to be unveiled until the plan for floor action is clear. Regardless of when the Senate votes on its NDAA, conventional wisdom is that the conference committee could drag out during the fall, leaving final passage of the defense bill to the lame duck.
Budget/Appropriations
The House Rules Committee is expected to meet early next week to review amendments filed for the first fiscal year 2023 (FY23) appropriations minibus, which includes the Transportation, Housing, and Urban Development (THUD); Agriculture; Energy and Water; Financial Services and Generation Government (FSGG); Interior; and Military Construction-Veterans Affairs (MilCon-VA) bills. The package of domestic spending bills is expected on the House floor next week. The bills remain partisan, and Democrats will likely have the votes to move the package on their own without any GOP support.
Ideally, House Democratic leadership would like to move the remaining six appropriations measures, including the Defense; State and Foreign Operations (SFOPs); Homeland Security; Labor-Health and Human Services (HHS); Commerce-Justice-Science (CJS); and Legislative Branch bills on the floor during the week of July 25. As these bills represent significantly more of the federal budget and are likely to touch on more controversial issues, it remains unclear whether any of these bills can clear the House before the August recess. Ongoing debate on the appropriate levels of topline defense spending could complicate the path forward for the Defense bill. Similarly, the Homeland Security bill could attract unwanted debate on immigration issues, while the Legislative Branch bill is expected to be fraught with disagreements related to Capitol security. Our hunch is that House Democrats may realistically have a shot at moving the first minibus and the SFOPs, Labor-HHS, and CJS bills, to clear a total of nine bills before the August recess.
While the Senate Appropriations Committee had hoped to make progress on its appropriations bills this month, Sen. Leahy’s absence has not been helpful, and it is now clear that, like we predicted several months ago, the Senate Appropriations Committee will not mark up their bills. Instead, Senate appropriators intend to post their legislation and use these drafts to go to conference with the House. We expect draft bills to be unveiled at the end of the month, which means the next several weeks are likely to see private negotiations between Democrats and Republicans as text is finalized.
If it was not obvious before, it is now certain that a CR will be needed to fund the government beyond the September 30 expiration of FY22 appropriations. How the FY23 appropriations cycle is resolved will be dependent upon Sens. Leahy and Richard Shelby (R-AL) and Reps. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) and Kay Granger (R-TX) striking an agreement on topline spending for defense and non-defense programs. A deal remains elusive despite engagement between Appropriations Committee leaders earlier this summer. The path forward is uncertain due to Sen. Leahy’s key role in discussions.
War in Ukraine
With priorities piling up and a condensed legislative calendar ahead of the midterm elections, it continues to feel like issues related to the war in Ukraine have been moved to the back burner. Our sense is that conversations in the administration may be pivoting away from sanctions and export controls to focus more on concrete steps that can be taken to bolster European energy security and weaken Russia’s energy revenues.
One such proposal getting attention is Secretary Janet Yellen’s effort to cap prices on Russian oil, which we understand was discussed as part of the recent G-20 finance ministers meeting. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo also recently discussed the proposal with Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko. Also as part of the G-20 meeting in Indonesia, Secretary of State Antony Blinken issued a statement indicating that the Biden Administration will provide another $368 million in humanitarian assistance to those affected by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This follows $400 million in additional military aid announced by the U.S. Government last Friday. This latest injection of humanitarian assistance brings the total amount of U.S. humanitarian assistance since the start of the war to $1.28 billion.
During the July 4 Congressional recess, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) traveled to the Ukraine-Poland border to meet with U.S. troops from Illinois. Additionally, Sens. Blumenthal and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) traveled to Ukraine to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The Senators gifted a framed copy of their resolution to declare Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. During the meeting, President Zelensky expressed his view that Western artillery is enhancing Ukraine’s ability to fight Russia as the country sees near constant shelling by Russian forces. Additionally, he urged continued support from the U.S. Congress for additional military assistance to Ukraine.
This week Reps. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) led a letter to President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen urging the Biden Administration to provide new resources to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to support the global response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including food shortages, rising energy prices, and COVID vaccination campaigns. Specifically, the lawmakers suggested the replication of last year’s move to create $650 billion in special drawing rights (SDR), a proposal the administration can put forward at the IMF board without Congressional authorization.
More broadly, we are hearing less on the Hill about further Congressional action on additional U.S. assistance for Ukraine. However, when this issue does arise, Members on both sides of the aisle continue to call for greater oversight and transparency into how previously appropriated Ukraine assistance has been spent. It is not helpful that the Department of Defense (DoD) inspector general said this week tens of billions of dollars used to arm Ukraine may not be accounted for because they cannot be input directly into DoD’s Advanced Analytics database system.
Speaking of DoD, we also saw several Ukraine amendments adopted in the House this week during floor consideration of the NDAA. Among the amendments made in order by the House Rules Committee were proposals to authorize a revolving fund to be used to procure high-demand munitions that may be transferred in support of sustained contingency operations in Ukraine; direct DoD to routinely to report to Congress on its response in Ukraine; and require U.S. companies to publicly disclose if they have business ties to Russia.
Political Tidbits
July 19
Maryland Primary: Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) is seeking reelection. He is expected to win on Tuesday and in November. In the 4th District, incumbent Rep. Anthony Brown (D-MD) declined to run, instead throwing his hat in the ring for the Attorney General race. Former Rep. Donna Edwards and former Prince George’s County State Attorney Glenn Ivey lead in the polls in the Democratic primary, and the seat is expected to remain Democratic. Rep. David Trone (D-MD) is seeking re-election in the 6th District, but redistricting has led to the seat being rated as lean Democratic. In the Republican primary, Washington Free Beacon reporter Matthew Fondi has been endorsed by Gov. Larry Hogan, while State Delegate Neil Parrott boasts a Washington Post primary endorsement and a larger cash on hand figure. Another race that some are watching is Rep. Andy Harris’ (R-MD). Although his district is red, it has recently been revealed that Rep. Harris was among at least 10 House Republicans who attended a December 2020 White House meeting with President Donald Trump in the runup to January 6. It is unclear how much of an impact the investigation will have on elections. At the gubernatorial level, incumbent Republican Gov. Hogan is term-limited. Both parties have crowded primaries.
August 2
Arizona Primary: President Trump’s recent visit to the Grand Canyon State has further brought the upcoming elections into the national spotlight. Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), who won a 2020 special election to unseat appointed Republican Martha McSally, is considered one of the most vulnerable incumbents. He faces a crowded field of Republicans, including Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich, businessman Jim Lamon, and Trump-endorsed Blake Masters, a venture capitalist. The state will also hold several competitive House primaries. Redistricting has caused incumbent Reps. Tom O’Halleran’s (D-AZ) and Ann Kirkpatrick’s (D-AZ) seats to become Republican leaning. While Rep. Kirkpatrick is retiring, Rep. O’Halleran faces an uphill battle in his reelection bid. Rep. Greg Stanton’s (D-AZ) race has also been rated as competitive. Arizona’s Gov. Doug Ducey is retiring due to term limits. His race, as well as others, set up several proxy battles between incumbents and President Trump. President Trump has endorsed Kari Lake, who will face several gubernatorial candidates, including Ducey-endorsed Karrin Taylor Robson, a former member of the Arizona Board of Regents and a wealthy GOP donor. The primary is a significant point of contention, as the January 6 Committee hearings have shown in recent weeks that President Trump repeatedly harassed the Arizona governor for refusing to support overturning the 2020 election outcome. In the Democratic primary, Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs has a lead over former Nogales Mayor Marco Lopez Jr.
Kansas Primary: Sen. Jerry Moran (R-KS) is facing only one opponent in the Republican primary: Joan Farr, who recently lost in the Oklahoma primary against Sen. James Lankford (R-OK). Six Democratic candidates are vying for the Democratic nomination, including former Kansas City Mayor Mark Holland. After Republican legislators redrew Rep. Sharice Davids’ (D-KS) district from a seat President Biden carried by more than ten points to one he would have carried by only five, her race rating changed to a toss-up. She will likely face a rematch with Republican healthcare executive Amanda Adkins, who Rep. Davids defeated by ten points in 2020. With Trump-endorsed gubernatorial frontrunner Attorney General Derek Schmidt, Republicans also have a chance to take the governor’s office, which they lost to Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly in 2018. The governor’s race has been rated as a toss-up.
Michigan Primary: The redistricting commission in Michigan was given a mandate to draw a map that would not provide a disproportionate advantage to any party, which ultimately ended up increasing the number of toss-up districts. The state’s new 3rd District joined Democratic areas with conservative communities. Rep. Peter Meijer (R-MI), who voted to impeach President Trump, is running against Trump-endorsed John Gibbs in the GOP primary. The winner will face Democrat Hillary Scholten, who lost to Rep. Meijer in 2020. In the 7th District, incumbent Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) will face Republican State Sen. Tom Barrett. Incumbent Rep. Dan Kildee (D-MI) is the presumptive Democratic nominee in his 8th District. However, three Republicans are competing to face him in what has been rated as a toss-up race, including Paul Junge, who lost to Rep. Slotkin in 2020 by three points and has a long resume as a television journalist, businessman, and district attorney. Redistricting prompted Rep. Andy Levin (D-MI) to move districts, leaving the 10th District open. A pool of Democratic candidates will face each other to secure a spot to take on Trump-endorsed frontrunner John James. The general election has been rated as a toss-up. In the 11th District, voters will have to choose between two Democratic incumbents, two-term moderate Rep. Stevens or two-term progressive Rep. Levin. The unexpected retirement of Rep. Brenda Lawrence (D-MI) created an open seat in the reconfigured 13th District. The seat is solidly Democratic and has nine Democratic candidates on the ballot, including State Sen. Adam Hollier, State Rep. Shri Thanedar, and former Detroit City Councilwoman Sharon McPhail. Recent polls are showing high voter-turnout motivation among Michiganders for three high-profile Democrats, including Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Meanwhile, GOP gubernatorial candidates have seen serious blows to their chances. Five candidates were removed from the ballot after election officials found that they had fraudulent petition signatures. Candidate Ryan Kelly was recently arrested by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) for his role on January 6. However, he remains in the lead ahead of chiropractor Garrett Soldano and businessman Kevin Rinke. Once the GOP settles on a candidate, it is sure to be an uphill battle for Gov. Whitmer.
Missouri Primary: All eyes will be on Missouri’s Senate seat, which is open due to incumbent Sen. Roy Blunt’s (R-MO) retirement. Former Gov. Eric Greitens, who resigned in 2018 due to allegations of sexual misconduct, is in a tight race for the GOP nomination. However, polls are showing him with a slight lead or tied with state Attorney General Eric Schmitt and Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R-MO), who has been endorsed by the Missouri Farm Bureau. Rep. Billy Long (R-MO) is trailing behind all three candidates. Two candidates are vying for the Democratic nomination, but the seat is likely to remain red. Reps. Hartzler’s and Long’s Senate bids have left the 4th and 7th Districts open, but the GOP is expected to hold both seats.
Washington Primary: Like California, Washington’s primaries advance the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, to the general election. The Senate’s third-ranking Democrat Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) is seeking reelection for a sixth term and faces 17 challengers. Her best-funded challenger is veterans advocate Tiffany Smiley, who has already been endorsed by the state Republican Party and raised more than $4.2 million. Rep. Kim Schrier’s (D-WA) reelection race in the 8th District has been rated as a toss-up following redistricting. She faces 11 candidates – three Democrats, five Republicans, one independent, and one third-party candidates – including Republican Jesse Jenson, who Rep. Schrier defeated by 3.6 percentage points in 2020. Reps. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA) in the 3rd District and Dan Newhouse (R-WA) in the 4th are also facing intraparty challengers angered by the incumbents’ votes to impeach President Trump.
August 4
Tennessee Primary
August 6
U.S. Virgin Islands Primary
August 9
Connecticut Primary: Sen. Blumenthal is leading his reelection bid by double-digits, ranging from ten points to 16 points in matchups with Republicans Themis Klarides, Peter Lumaj, and Leora Levy. The blue seat will almost certainly remain that way, especially considering the last Republican to win a U.S. Senate race in Connecticut was elected in 1982. On the House side, most races are safely blue. However, Democratic Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-CT) will face Marcus Furze in the primary for the 5th District. The winner will face one of two Republican candidates, Michelle Botelho or George Logan, for what has been rated as a highly competitive seat in November’s general election.
Minnesota Special Election and Primary: Voters in Minnesota’s 1st District will elect a new congressman to fill the seat of Republican Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R-MN), who passed away earlier this year. Republican Brad Finstad is running against former Hormel CEO Jeff Ettinger. Voters will also select party nominees to run in November for the upcoming term, a race in which both Finstad and Ettinger are running. In the 2nd District, Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) is running unopposed in her primary. However, the general election has been rated as highly competitive. Rep. Craig faces a rematch with former Marine Tyler Kistner, who she beat by 2.2 points in 2020. Rep. Betty McCollum (D-MN), who represents the 4th District, also faces a tough intraparty challenger. Amane Badhasso is an Ethiopian refugee and has raised over $600,000 in a bid to unseat Rep. McCollum.
Vermont Primary: Incumbent Sen. Leahy, current chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, is set to retire after his ninth term. Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT) is the frontrunner in the race, and the seat is considered solidly Democratic. Rep. Welch’s run for Senate has left the state’s lone Congressional seat open. Four candidates are vying for the Democratic nomination, including President Pro Tempore of the Vermont Senate Becca Balint and Lt. Gov. Molly Gray.
Wisconsin Primary: Incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson’s (R-WI) seat is considered a possible pickup for Democrats as he has been a vocal opponent of abortion rights, which could be a key voter issue. Four Democrats, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, State Treasurer Sarah Godlweski, and Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson, are competing to challenge Sen. Johnson. Redistricting redrew the 3rd District to be Republican leaning, prompting Rep. Ron Kind (D-WI) to announce his retirement. Four Democrats, entrepreneur Rebecca Cooke, former Army Captain and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) officer Deb McGrath, retired pediatrician Mark Neumann, and Kind-endorsed State Sen. Brad Pfaff, are vying to face the presumptive Republican nominee, retired Navy SEAL Derrick Van Ordern. The seat is rated as leaning Republican. After narrowly beating the now-former Gov. Scott Walker in 2018, incumbent Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is his party’s presumptive nominee for the fall. Republicans remain undecided on their party’s nominee. Polling in June saw that 32 percent of primary voters as undecided, with 27 percent supporting Trump-endorsed businessman Tim Michels, 26 percent supporting Walker-endorsed former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch, and 10 percent for Kevin Nicholson, who has since withdrawn his candidacy. The gubernatorial race is considered a toss-up.
August 13
Hawaii Primary: Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI) is seeking re-election and is expected to win the primary and the general election. Rep. Kai Kahele (D-HI) is running in the gubernatorial race to replace term-limited Gov. David Ige, a race in which Lt. Gov. Josh Green is leading in the polls. In Rep. Kahele’s 2nd District, State Rep. Patrick Branco and former State Sen. Jill Tokuda have received endorsements from outside groups in the lead up to the Democratic primary. The seat is expected to stay in Democrats’ hands.
August 16
Alaska Senate and House Primaries and Special Election: With Alaska’s system of a top four primary, the August 16 election will take place to determine which three candidates will run against incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK). Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka is leading in Alaska Survey Research polls against Sen. Murkowski 43-35, with Democrat Patricia Chesbro at 17 percent and Alaska Independence Party candidate Dustin Darn at 5 percent. Another top-four primary will take place to determine candidates in the state’s Congressional district for the general election. Twenty-two candidates are on the regular primary ballot, including nine undeclared candidates, nine Republicans, one Democrat, and three third-party candidates. The regularly scheduled election is one of two elections, alongside a special election to determine who will complete the rest of the late Rep. Don Young’s (R-AK) term. Nick Begich III (R), Sarah Palin (R), and Mary Peltola (D) are running in both the special election and regular primary. Alaska uses ranked choice voting, so after the vote on August 16, the third-place candidate will be eliminated and his or her vote will be reallocated based on second-choice vote, giving one of the remaining candidates a majority. Recent polls have shown Palin running 11 points behind Peltola and two points behind Begich.
Wyoming Primary: While the Equality State’s lone Congressional district is considered a safe seat for Republicans, the August primary will be a race to watch. Incumbent Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) is in a tough primary after breaking with President Trump and serving as Vice Chair of the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6 Attack on the U.S. Capitol. Former Republican National Committee (RNC) member Harriet Hageman boasts endorsements from President Trump and other conservative Republicans, and she leads in the polls.
August 23
Florida Primary: Rep. Val Demings (D-FL) is leading Democratic candidates to face incumbent Sen. Rubio this fall. Polls on a hypothetical race between the two over the past several months have had Sen. Rubio leading between four and 19 percent. Due to redistricting, both the 4th District in Jacksonville and the 15th District east of Tampa are open. The GOP will likely secure both seats in the fall. Four other districts are open due to Democratic retirements, including Rep. Stephanie Murphy’s (D-FL) in the 7th District; Rep. Demings’ in the 10th, Rep. Charlie Crist’s (D-FL), who is running for Governor, in the 13th; and Rep. Ted Deutch’s (D-FL) in the 23rd. While Democrats will likely hold the 10th and the 23rd Districts, Republicans are looking to flip the other two.
New York Primary for House Seats and Special Elections: Following the state’s first primary on June 28, New York will hold a second round of primaries for the state’s Congressional seats. After a Democratic-drawn map was struck down, the state moved the elections for U.S. representatives to August. Redistricting and retirements have left vacant and highly competitive seats. The most watched race will likely be the 12th District, where two Democratic incumbents, Reps. Jerry Nadler (D-NY) and Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), will face one another. The 19th and 23rd Districts have special elections that will fill the seats of two retired Members. In the former, Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-NY) was recently appointed Lieutenant Governor. Republican Marc Molinaro, a Dutchess County executive, is leading in the polls and could flip the district in August. In the 23rd District, incumbent Rep. Tom Reed (R-NY) resigned in May. Steuben County Republican Committee Chair Joe Sempolinski is expected to win and fill the remainder of Rep. Reed’s term. We will also be watching the 3rd, 4th, 10th, 18th, and 22nd Districts. Incumbent Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY) declined to run in his 3rd District and instead is challenging Gov. Kathy Hochul in the Democratic primary. His House seat is considered a toss-up. Presumptive Republican nominee George Santos will face whoever wins in the contentious Democratic primary in August. In the 4th District, incumbent Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-NY) is retiring, and while the seat is considered a likely Democratic hold in the fall, the primary is crowded. There will be another crowded Democratic primary in the 10th District. Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-NY) chose to run in the 10th District after his colleague, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY), moved to his old district. Rep. Jones faces former New York City Mayor Bill DeBlasio, former Rep. Liz Holtzman, former Assistant U.S. Attorney Dan Goldman, State Assemblymembers Yuh Line-Niou, and Jo Anne Simon, and New York City Councilmember Carlina Rivera, among others. Rep. Maloney left to run in Rep. Jones’ current 17th District, which left the 18th District open. The 17th is being rated as lean Democrat while the 18th is considered a toss-up in November. Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan leads in the Democratic primary, and if he wins, he will face presumptive Republican nominee and current State Assemblymember Colin Schmitt. Rep. John Katko (R-NY) is retiring in the 22ndDistrict, and his seat is considered a toss-up for the fall.
Oklahoma Primary Runoffs: Attorney Jason Bollinger and cybersecurity professional Madison Horn will face each other in the Democratic primary runoff to determine who will face incumbent Sen. Lankford in November. In the Republican primary for the special election to replace retiring Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK), Rep. Markwayne Mullin and former State House Speaker T. W. Shannon will face a runoff. Mullin received 43.6 percent of the primary vote compared to Shannon’s 17.5 percent. The winner will face former Rep. Kendra Horn in the fall. Both seats are considered Republican holds.
Looking ahead to the fall, several states in the Northeast will hold primaries in the runup to the general election:
September 6
Massachusetts Primary
September 13
Delaware Primary
New Hampshire Primary
Rhode Island Primary