Plurus Strategies Weekly Update: Gun Control, USICA/America COMPETES, Reconciliation and Other Activity in Washington
Gun Control
Though we were initially skeptical, it now appears that gun control legislation is on track to be on its way to the president for signature before Members are wheels up for the two-week recess. After working through the weekend to address sticking points related to red flag laws, the “boyfriend loophole,” and the Hyde amendment, on Tuesday, bipartisan Senate negotiators struck a deal and released bill text codifying the recent agreement on a framework. Overall, the package would bar individuals charged with a misdemeanor as a result of an assault on someone they were dating from purchasing a gun, make grants available to states to implement red flag laws, expand background checks for gun purchasers under the age of 21, and boost spending for mental health and school security.
Shortly after the unveiling of legislative text, the Senate voted 64-34 on Tuesday evening to open debate on the bill. Fourteen Republicans (Sens. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), John Cornyn (R-TX), Thom Tillis (R-NC), Roy Blunt (R-MO), Richard Burr (R-NC), Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), Bill Cassidy (R-LA), Susan Collins (R-ME), Joni Ernst (R-IA), Lindsay Graham (R-SC), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Rob Portman (R-OH), Mitt Romney (R-UT), and Todd Young (R-IN)) voted with Democrats to advance the bill. Sen. Pat Toomey (D-PA) missed the vote, but as one of the key negotiators, is thought to be supportive. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) offered the bill as an amendment to an unrelated courthouse and post office naming bill already passed by both chambers in an effort to expedite its consideration. Both Leader Schumer and Leader McConnell used their respective caucus lunches on Wednesday to detail the final package and whip votes. Since then, a number of Republicans have come out against the bill. Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) has made is opposition well known.
A Senate vote on cloture is expected today, once again testing whether the bill enjoys filibuster-proof support. Assuming there continue to be more than 60 votes for the package, a vote on final passage is possible as early as today. Once the Senate acts, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has indicated the House will move quickly to also pass the measure before starting the recess, potentially causing the House to alter its schedule so the bill might pass today. While House GOP leadership is whipping against the bill, the legislation is expected to clear the chamber. The House also passed mental health legislation this week, as well as a bill that would create an active shooter alert system.
President Joe Biden has indicated he will sign the bipartisan gun control bill into law. While the bill falls short of Democratic demands for an assault weapons ban, national red flag law, and increase in the minimum age to purchase firearms from 18 to 21, the package represents the most meaningful legislative progress on gun control reform in roughly 30 years.
Compromise on the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act shows that Washington may not be broken despite thin margins in both chambers and looming midterm elections. Democrats are claiming victory and touting the package as a response to urgent calls for action following recent mass shootings in Buffalo and Uvalde and a first step towards more sweeping reforms. Meanwhile, Republicans are referring to the package as a win because it meets the moment without imposing any significant new restrictions on gun ownership. The GOP is now expected to pivot back to its political messaging hammering Democrats on inflation and gas prices.
U.S. Innovation and Competition Act (USICA)/America COMPETES Act Conference
As the number of legislative days remaining before the August recess and the midterm elections dwindle, House and Senate leadership have increased pressure on conferees to strike a deal on compromise USICA/America COMPETES Act legislation. On Tuesday, Leaders Schumer and McConnell and Speaker Pelosi and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) met to discuss progress on the competitiveness package. Following their discussions, House and Senate leadership issued a joint statement encouraging the conference committee to strike a deal with urgency and to make whatever accommodations might be necessary to secure passage of the conference report in July. Democratic leaders have also stressed the need to swiftly enact the $52 billion in CHIPS Act funding included in both the House and Senate bills, something automakers demanded in a letter sent to Senate Commerce and House Science Committee leadership earlier this week.
Staffers tell us that although the USICA/America COMPETES Act conference process is moving slower than most would like, by the end of last week, most committees were close to signing off on their components for the package. We had also heard the conference committee had compiled a list of unresolved issues to get bumped up to the leadership level. Our sense is that this list includes controversial trade and tax issues that are likely to get dropped from the bill in the interest of passing legislation before the August recess. Immigration issues, including provisions that would enhance access to green cards for immigrants with advanced degrees in STEM fields also continue to be debated, though Sen. Young has said he suspects they will ultimately be cut from the final package. While the conference report is unlikely to be finished this week, our sources are increasingly optimistic that compromise legislation will be finalized and ready for action in July.
Build Back Better (BBB)/Reconciliation
Depending on who you ask, reconciliation is either very much alive or dying a slow death. To our knowledge, following at least two meetings last week and another meeting yesterday, talks between Leader Schumer and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) on a BBB-like package continue, but any progress is being kept a close hold. Leader Schumer and Speaker Pelosi met with President Biden last week, creating the impression reconciliation might still be achievable. However, there are several factors complicating negotiations, including a crowded legislative agenda, the tight Congressional calendar, Byrd rule restrictions, and uncertainty around Sen. Manchin’s priorities for a deal.
In one camp are the staffers who believe that no news is good news and remain optimistic that Democrats will not squander the opportunity to pass filibuster-proof legislation this year. Some even believe that Leader Schumer and Sen. Manchin have agreed on principles and are reluctant to release a framework until gun control legislation and the competitiveness package are in Congress’ rearview mirror. There are some rumblings that Sen. Manchin may be starting to feel compelled to bargain to help Democratic incumbents who find themselves in tight races. Additionally, these sources believe that Democrats face a moral imperative to extend Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies that are due to expire at the end of this year, and the only strategy for doing so would be to utilize reconciliation. On Wednesday, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) Chiquita Administrator Brooks-Lasure emphasized that Democrats should act to extend the subsidies before open enrollment begins on November 1.
Alternatively, as we cross days off the calendar, some Democrats are growing more pessimistic about the prospects for reconciliation. We are hearing from individuals who are close to Sen. Manchin that he continues to struggle to outline priorities for the energy and climate component of a package that would not be at risk of getting knocked out by the Byrd rule. Sen. Manchin remains focused on boosting domestic oil and gas production and opposed to direct payments to clean energy developers. While Leader Schumer is allegedly now also engaging with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), it remains possible that Senate Democrats lack unity on tax provisions. Further, some healthcare staffers point to the recent unveiling of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Collin’s legislation to lower the cost of insulin and chatter about moving it as a standalone bill as a bad sign for prescription drug pricing reform moving as part of some larger reconciliation package. On healthcare provisions, a very senior White House staffer also told us it would be difficult for Democrats to extend ACA subsidies via reconciliation because Sen. Manchin wants everything in reconciliation to be permanent, which would make such a provision too costly.
From our perspective, if there is a deal to be had, a framework needs to come together soon because it will take time for the bill to be written, scored, whipped, and reviewed by the parliamentarian, all before the reconciliation vehicle expires on September 30. If there is ultimately a reconciliation bill, our gut says it will move quickly and there will be very limited opportunities to make changes.
Budget/Appropriations
As if this week were not busy enough, the House Appropriations Committee continued to wade through subcommittee and full committee markups of the fiscal year 2023 (FY23) spending bills. On Wednesday, the committee approved its slate of 302(b) allocations for all 12 appropriations measures. Because House and Senate negotiators have yet to reach consensus on toplines for defense and non-defense spending, House Democrats have allocated funds in a way that closely aligns with the president’s budget request. The approved allocations provide an increase over FY22 enacted levels for each spending bill. However, they are subject to change once a deal on toplines is clinched.
Last week, the House Appropriations subcommittees marked up the Agriculture, Defense, Financial Services and General Government (FSGG), Homeland Security, Legislative Branch, and Military Construction-Veterans Affairs (MilCon-VA) bills. All six measures will see action in the full committee by the end of this week. The House Appropriations Committee voted 32-36 to advance a defense bill with a $716.6 billion topline. While this is a $32 billion increase over FY22 enacted defense spending, Republicans continue to demand a larger increase. Additionally, subcommittee markups were held this week for the Commerce-Justice-Science (CJS), Energy and Water, Interior-Environment, Labor-Health and Human Services (Labor-HHS), State and Foreign Operations (SFOPs), and Transportation (THUD) bills, which will be marked up at the full committee level next week.
Our analysis of the House FY23 appropriations bills finds that Members requested even more earmarks than in the FY22 appropriations cycle. According to the House Appropriations Committee, 345 Members submitted earmark requests for the FY23 spending bills, totaling $12.4 billion. By way of comparison, the committee received 3,019 FY22 earmark requests totaling $7.1 billion. While there has been a 74 percent increase in earmark requests, it remains to be seen if an omnibus will include this significant increase in earmarked funds given the current absence of an agreement on topline spending numbers.
Despite activity in the House on appropriations and the plan to vote on appropriations bills on the House floor in July, at this point, there is no doubt that a continuing resolution (CR) will be needed to fund the government beyond the September 30 end of the fiscal year. While there will likely be a CR to Thanksgiving, and potentially another one to Christmas, we believe there are incentives for both Democrats and Republicans to pass an omnibus during the lame duck. Democrats should strive to get the best deal the can, assuming the House will flip control, and Republicans, who expect the GOP conference in the next Congress could be difficult to lead, might be inclined to clear the decks this year.
FY23 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)
The House and Senate are continuing to make progress in advancing their respective NDAAs. The Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) completed its NDAA markup last week, considering 433 amendments, adopting 223 bipartisan amendments, and ultimately reporting the legislation on a 23-3 vote. While the markup was closed and legislative and report language is not expected to be made available until closer to floor consideration, the committee has released an executive summary of the bill. Notably, the SASC bill includes a $45 billion increase for the defense topline above the president’s budget request.
On Wednesday, the House Armed Services Committee (HASC) held a full committee markup for its NDAA, which spanned the early hours of Thursday morning as hundreds of amendments were considered. House authorizers adopted an amendment to increase the defense topline by $37 billion. Assuming the House and Senate maintain their funding levels as the bills proceed to the floor, there will be a fight in the conference committee, as the House bill is roughly $8 billion less than the Senate bill. Both the House and Senate NDAAs are candidates for floor time in July. The conference committee’s work to iron out differences between the two bills is expected to take place this fall and drag passage of the final defense bill into the lame duck.
War in Ukraine
With tremendous activity this week on domestic policy priorities, it feels like the war in Ukraine may be starting to fade from the spotlight. Declining salience of this issue worsens the prospects that Congress might approve another sizeable support package for Ukraine this year.
Regardless, the Biden Administration has kept up its high-profile visits to Ukraine, with Attorney General Merrick Garland making an unannounced visit this week to discuss U.S. and international efforts to prosecute war crimes resulting from the Russian invasion. While in Ukraine, Attorney General Garland announced the launch of a War Crimes Accountability Team to hold perpetrators accountable. His visit follows a statement issued by the European Commission on Friday recommending that Ukraine should be granted candidate status for E.U. membership. President Biden will travel to Europe next week, with planned stops in Germany and Spain. While a stop in Ukraine is not on his itinerary, we expect issues related to sanctions, energy prices, and Finland and Sweden’s aspirations of NATO membership to dominate conversations.
National security leaders continue to contemplate ramping up efforts to arm Ukraine. Recent reports suggest the Department of Defense (DoD) may be considering delivering four more rocket launchers to Ukraine in the next tranche of military aid. Pentagon leaders are thought to be in consultation with allies and partners, including the U.K. and Germany, who are transferring similar weapons to Ukraine. There is also chatter that the Biden Administration may donate Gray Eagle drones in future weapons transfers to demonstration U.S. military support. Ukrainian officials continue to call for additional funding for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which was created by the FY22 NDAA.
In addition to Ukraine’s requests for more weapons, Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova has also called for the U.S. to impose additional sanctions on Russia, including ramping up sanctions in the banking sector, increasing restrictions for individuals who are close to Putin, and designating Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. On the latter, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee (SFRC) is considering a resolution this morning that would call on the Secretary of State to make this designation.
Developments on the ground in Ukraine have led to rumors that the U.S. national security establishment may be growing increasingly concerned that the conflict in Ukraine is a war of attrition that may not be winnable. While some make the case that keeping Russian President Vladimir Putin distracted in Ukraine might be best for the world order, other experts are beginning to urge Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to consider ceding some of the Donbas region to Russia to put an end to the war.
COVID Relief
Another package that seems increasingly dead is the COVID relief proposal that seemed like it had a window to move before the Easter recess. As of now, we are hearing nothing about the need to attach COVID aid to any other moving legislative vehicle.
In addition to the fact that rescissions of previously appropriated stimulus funds that had been agreed to as offsets of now been spent, there now appears to be bad blood between the Biden Administration and Sen. Romney, who negotiated the original $10 billion package. While White House officials argue that they have been transparent with Republicans about the need for more COVID funding, Sen. Romney has accused the administration of providing false information about its inability to buy additional vaccines, treatments, and supplies. With the key GOP negotiator now placing himself on the sidelines, we find it hard to see how the COVID relief package gets resurrected.
Healthcare Activity
This week, Congress has tackled but not resolved major tensions on the establishment of the Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health (ARPA-H). This new applied research agency is a priority for the president. The House of Representatives passed the ARPA-H Act on a vote of 336-85 on Wednesday. Notably, this bill establishes the agency within the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) but outside of the National Institutes for Health (NIH). House Members, including both Democrats and Republicans, have concern with balancing the missions of ARPA-H and NIH. HHS announced earlier this year that it would place the new agency within NIH. The Senate's version of legislation creating the new agency establishes ARPA-H within NIH. The bill is included as part of the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee’s pandemic preparedness legislation that is still before the committee. At the same time, the House Appropriations Committee has begun its FY23 appropriations markup process. The president's budget request asked for $5 billion for ARPA-H. However, in Wednesday's Labor-HHS Subcommittee markup, Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) said there needs to be a balance between ARPA-H and NIH funding and Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) disapproved providing money to the new agency "at the expense" of NIH.
While the July 4 recess kicks off next week, there is still optimism on the prospects for moving healthcare legislation before the August recess. Leader Schumer has said publicly he wants to consider bipartisan insulin pricing legislation soon. We have connected with Senate staffers on what could get realistically get done before the August recess. The FDA user fee reauthorization "must get done," per one staffer, considering the September 30 expiration. However, another pointed out that the big issue is "bridging the divide" between the House and Senate versions. Both the HELP and Senate Finance Committees are looking at using this bill as a vehicle for mental health packages. Depending on what is included and how much goes into deficit reduction, reconciliation could potentially move before August. The most likely healthcare provisions to be included are drug pricing and language making ACA tax credits permanent. The latter is a priority for Democrats.
Political Tidbits
Retirements
With days until the July 4 recess, we have finally hit the plateau in announcements of Members not returning in 2023, but next week’s primaries are sure to boost the number once again. Illinois will see two Member vs. Member races. Republican Reps. Rodney Davis (R-IL) and Mary Miller (R-IL) are competing against each other in the 15th District. Democratic Reps. Sean Casten (D-IL) and Marie Newman (D-IL) will go head-to-head in the 6th District. What’s more, Mississippi Republican Reps. Michael Guest (R-MS) and Steven Palazzo (R-MS) face strong intraparty challengers for 3rd and 4th Districts, respectively, which could add to the list. As of now, here are where the numbers stand:
1 Senate Democrat: 1 full committee chair (Appropriations)
5 Senate Republicans: 5 full committee ranking members (Appropriations; SASC; Banking; HELP; Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs (HSGAC); and Rules)
35 House Democrats: 4 full committee chairs (Budget; Ethics; Science, Space, and Technology; and Transportation and Infrastructure)
24 House Republicans: 2 full committee ranking members (Homeland Security and Ways and Means)
Elections
Following a recount in the Democratic primary for Texas’ 28th District, incumbent Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) has officially secured the nomination, narrowly beating his progressive challenger, Jessica Cisneros. Rep. Cuellar’s victory follows a number of losses for the more moderate side of the party. In recent weeks, progressives have successfully ousted Blue Dogs, including Reps. Kurt Schrader (D-OR) and Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-GA). However, Rep. Cuellar’s fight isn’t over yet. November’s election will occur under new district lines and Republicans are already targeting the district. Rep. Cuellar will face Cassy Garcia, who won the Republican primary with 57 percent of the vote.
Looking to the West Coast, now weeks after the California primary, the vote count continues as uncertainties linger. California uses a top-two primary system and incumbents in toss-up races, including Republican Rep. David Valadao (R-CA), await the outcome. There are 22 days left to certify election results.
Virginia and Washington, DC were the lone primaries this week. In the latter, Rep. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-DC) coasted to victory with 87 percent of the vote over two challengers, and she is expected to win in the fall. Three other states – Arkansas, Alabama, and Georgia – held runoff elections. There were no federal runoffs of note in Arkansas. Trump-endorsed candidates continue to make gains, many of whom deny or question the legitimacy of the 2020 election. However, Georgia GOP voters have rejected two candidates endorsed by President Donald Trump, a potential signal of the influence of the January 6 investigative hearings. Tuesday’s election set the stage for a number of competitive House races, including in Virginia’s 2nd and 7th Districts. Republican women also did well. The most notable was Trump-endorsed Katie Britt, who won the GOP Senate primary runoff against Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL). We tracked the following races:
Virginia
Democrats in Virginia had a relatively quiet night. All Democrats except Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA), who represents 8th District, ran unopposed. However, with general election candidates locked in, Virginia’s election season will only get busier from here. GOP primary candidates were already receiving support from high-profile Republicans, including Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Ginni Thomas, and PACs aligned with Minority Leader McCarthy and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY). Endorsements and campaign financing are likely to soar in the coming months. We were watching these races in preparation for the fall:
VA-2: Incumbent Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA) ran unopposed for her nomination. However, she is one of two Virginian Democrats whose race has been rated a toss-up. A former U.S. Navy commander, the two-term Congresswoman has become increasingly visible this month because of her position on the House Select Committee to investigate the attack on the Capitol. In a recent interview with the New York Times, Rep. Luria said, “If I don’t get re-elected because of [her role on the select committee], that’s OK.” On the other hand, Dave Wasserman of the Cook Report said there could be benefits to her high-profile role on the select committee, but it likely will not be an issue that makes her reelection any less challenging. State Sen. Jen Kiggans, a fellow Navy veteran, won the GOP primary with over 55 percent of the vote. Kiggans has received high-profile endorsements and the GOP group Winning for Women Action Fund launched a six-figure radio and TV ad for her last week. The race is certain to be highly competitive.
VA-7: Incumbent Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) also won her nomination unopposed, but like Rep. Luria, Rep. Spanberger is the other Virginian Democrat facing a highly competitive race in November. Republicans view the race as a key opportunity to pick up a House seat. With more money and name recognition, Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega prevailed over her six Republican competitors winning 28.9 percent of the vote. The race is set to get increasingly expensive. Rep. Spanberger herself reported $4.3 million in cash on hand as of the beginning of June.
VA-10: Virginia’s 10th District is another the GOP is trying to target. We have heard that this race will be a bellwether for the Democratic Caucus. If Rep. Jennifer Wexton’s (D-VA) lead slips in the days leading up to the election or if she loses reelection early in the evening on Election Day, it will likely mean a poor showing for Democrats across the country. She won the Democratic nomination unopposed, but Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the rating of the race from safe to likely Democratic following Tuesday night. Even though the race is not expected to be as competitive as Reps. Luria’s or Spanberger’s, high inflation and President Biden’s low approval numbers could impact the race. She will face Republican challenger Hung Cao, who won the nomination previously.
Alabama
Senate GOP Runoff: Former Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) chief of staff Katie Britt won the GOP primary runoff against Rep. Brooks by nearly 30 percent. Rep. Brooks received the support of Sens. Cruz and Rand Paul (R-KY), as well as members of the House Freedom Caucus, and his loss is likely due in part to President Trump retracting his endorsement. Although Britt was endorsed by President Trump, she stands in contrast both to other Trump-endorsed candidates and to the GOP primary contender Alabama voters chose in 2017, Roy Moore. She has remained largely vague in her opinions surrounding the so-called stolen election, likely signaling she will fall in line with party members who do not cause trouble for party leadership. She has also received the backing of her former boss, retiring Sen. Shelby, and a McConnell-aligned super PAC. Will Boyd won Democratic primary in May, but the seat has been rated as solid Republican, and Britt will almost certainly be the next Senator for the state. Although two women have been appointed a Senate seat, Britt will be the first woman elected to the Senate from Alabama.
AL-05 GOP Runoff: The northern Alabama seat was vacated by Rep. Brooks in his unsuccessful bid for Senate. Kathy Warner-Stanton won the Democratic nomination in May. However, GOP candidates were forced into a primary runoff after neither top contender won the majority. Madison County Commission Chair Dale Strong beat former Huntsville City Schools Superintendent Casey Wardynski by nearly 30 percent. The seat has been rated solidly Republican and is likely to remain that way.
Gubernatorial Democratic Runoff: Activist Yolanda Flowers beat State Sen. Malika Sanders-Fortier in Democratic primary runoff by about 10 percentage points. She will face incumbent Republican Gov. Kay Ivey, who won the GOP primary in May. For the first time in the state’s history, two women will face off for the governorship. Ivey is the second woman and first Republican woman elected to the governor’s office. Flowers is the first Black woman nominated for governor by a major party in Alabama.
Georgia
GA-06 GOP Runoff: Emergency room physician Rich McCormick beat Trump-backed attorney Jake Evans in the 6th District’s GOP primary runoff. Although Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath (D-GA) currently represents the district, the seat was redrawn to be heavily Republican and she has opted to run in the 7th District, leaving the seat vacant. Evans’ loss was one of two races that President Trump’s endorsement failed to hold up, signaling that Georgia’s Republicans may not be as influenced by President Trump, particularly given the former president’s targeting of Gov. Brian Kemp. McCormick will face Bob Christian, who won the Democratic nomination in May. However, redistricting has meant the seat will likely flip from blue to red.
·GA-07 GOP Runoff: Back in May, Rep. McBath, who opted to run in her neighboring district after redistricting flipped her seat from blue to red, defeated Blue Dog Rep. Bourdeaux in the Democratic primary. New district lines reconfigured the seat to include a more progressive electorate, which aligns more closely with Rep. McBath. Republican Mark Gonsalves beat Michael Corbin in the GOP primary runoff with 67.5 percent of the vote. Rep. McBath is likely to remain in Congress, as the race has been rated as safely Democratic.
GA-10 Runoff: Incumbent Republican Rep. Jody Hice (R-GA) gave up his House seat to run in the GOP primary for Georgia’s Secretary of State, which he lost in May. While the district is deeply red, Tuesday’s results show that it is not necessarily a Trump stronghold. Vernon Jones, a former Democratic office holder who became a pro-Trump Republican, was defeated by trucking company owner Mike Collins, son of former Rep. Mac Collins. Tabitha Johnson-Green beat Jessica Allison Fore in the Democratic runoff and received 64 percent of the vote. However, as stated above, the seat is solidly Republican, and Mike Collins is likely to be the district’s next representative.
Looking ahead to Tuesday, Colorado, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Utah are holding their primaries, and Mississippi and South Carolina hold runoff elections for a total of five Senate primary races and 35 House races.
Redistricting
Louisiana is the only state that does not currently have a Congressional map in place for the 2022 election season. On June 6, a federal court struck down Louisiana’s map, citing that it violated the Voting Rights Act. The state legislature failed to draw a new map by the June 20 deadline, effectively handing over control to the courts. Amid apportionment losses around the country, Democrats may have the chance to gain a Congressional seat in the state as the judge that ordered the new map on June 6 required that it add a second Black-majority district. The state’s sole Black majority district, the 2nd Congressional District, is currently represented by Rep. Troy Carter (R-LA) and has long been a Democratic stronghold.