Impact of the Midterm Election on Senate and House Committee Assignments
As of 12PM on Thursday, November 10, 2022
Although we are still waiting for results in dozens of key races, it appears that Democrats have managed to avoid a red wave and defied conventional wisdom about midterm elections, an unpopular president, and a struggling economy. While inflation and crime certainly remain priorities for voters, abortion and preservation of democratic institutions may have been stronger drivers in this midterm election than anticipated.
Outcomes as of Thursday show that Democrats have eluded losses in many bellwether districts, such as Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, where Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) won reelection and in Ohio’s 9th Congressional District, where Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) also won another term. Additionally, Democrats picked up highly-competitive seats, notably flipping Pennsylvania’s vacant Senate seat from red to blue.
Redistricting and President Donald Trump’s influence impacted results in some races, and many of the candidates who President Trump endorsed to aid in their primaries ultimately lost in the general election. Even among Republicans, there seems to be growing consensus that, as Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) stated late Tuesday night, this is “definitely not a Republican wave, that’s for darn sure.” However, there have been some bright spots for Republicans, who so far have flipped formerly Democratic stronghold districts, including three House seats in Florida, and have maintained control of open Senate seats in Ohio and North Carolina.
The days of sweeping landslide elections may be of the past. Control of the Senate remains a nailbiter with three key races yet to be called in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. To flip the chamber, Republicans would need to pick up two of these three Democrat-held seats. On the House side, Republicans are favored to win a majority, but there are roughly 40 races where results have yet to be finalized and the GOP’s ultimate margin could be as small single digit, falling far short of the 26 seats that the party not in power typically gains during a normal midterm election.
While many races have yet to be called and control of both the House and Senate hang in the balance, we have already started to explore how the midterms will shape committee assignments in the next Congress. Below is a snapshot of significant wins and losses and how those results impact current committee rosters. Please click the links below for more detailed information on specific Senate and House committees.
Senate Musical Chairs
According to political pundits, as of this morning, Democrats are favored to maintain control of the Senate, but the results remain too close to call.
Impacts on Committee Leadership
Arizona: With about 70 percent of the vote reported as of Thursday morning, incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D) is ahead of his Trump-backed challenger Blake Masters by five percent. Sen. Kelly’s once-significant lead was reduced significantly in the race’s closing weeks. If Sen. Kelly loses reelection, here are impacts:
Potential Committee Vacancies: Depending on how final margins impact committee ratios, a Democratic seat could potentially open on the Aging; Armed Services; Energy and Natural Resources; and Environment and Public Works Committees.
Potential Committee Leadership Vacancies: While he is not a chair of any full committee, Sen. Kelly chairs the Armed Services Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities. It is unclear who would be next in line given that other subcommittee members are limited by Senate rules to take the top spot on another subcommittee.
Georgia: Incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) remains neck and neck with Republican challenger Herschel Walker. It is now certain that neither candidate has secured the 50 percent needed to win outright and the election will be decided by a December 6 runoff. If Sen. Warnock ultimately loses reelection, here are impacts:
Potential Committee Vacancies: Depending on how final margins impact committee ratios, a Democratic seat could potentially open on the Aging; Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry; Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs; and Commerce, Science and Transportation Committees.
Potential Committee Leadership Vacancies: While he is not a chair of any full committee, Sen. Warnock chairs the Agriculture Subcommittee on Commodities, Risk Management, and Trade. Agriculture subcommittee assignments follow seniority. If Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) gives up another subcommittee leadership position, he could be eligible. Otherwise, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) could fill the top Democratic slot on the subcommittee. Sen. Warnock also chairs the Banking Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Consumer Protection. Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-CA) and Bob Menendez (D-NJ) would have to give up other subcommittee leadership positions to be eligible, meaning next in line could be Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT).
Nevada: With about 83 percent of the vote in as of Thursday morning, incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) is narrowly trailing her Republican challenger Adam Laxalt, although votes from Democratic strongholds have yet to be fully counted. If she loses reelection, here are impacts:
Potential Committee Vacancies: Depending on how final margins impact committee ratios, a Democratic seat could potentially open on the Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs; Energy and Natural Resources; and Finance Committees.
Potential Committee Leadership Vacancies: While she is not a chair of any full committee, Sen. Cortez Masto chairs the Energy and Natural Resources Subcommittee on Public Lands, Forest, and Mining. Energy and Natural Resources subcommittees leadership is typically based on seniority, meaning next-in-line could be Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-NM), as Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) is already in the top Democratic spot on another subcommittee.
Other Noteworthy Results
Florida: Incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) retained control of his seat, meaning that he will remain in the top GOP spot on the Intelligence Committee.
Pennsylvania: Democratic challenger John Fetterman won the state’s vacant seat, becoming the first red to blue flip of the midterm election. When all the votes are counted, it is expected that Fetterman will win by around four points.
Wisconsin: On Wednesday morning, it was announced that incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) won reelection. If Republicans are successful in flipping the Senate, Sen. Johnson could return to the top GOP slot on the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee (HSGAC), where he was term limited from serving as ranking member in the 117th Congress.
To help you better visualize the impacts of the elections results so far, our document is coded to reflect Members who will not be returning in the 118th Congress, including those who are retiring or who have lost reelection. Races where results have not been finalized are highlighted in grey.
Similar to previous iterations of our analysis, this document continues to track potential changes in committee leadership. At this point, control of the Senate remains up for grabs.
Senate Republicans are planning on holding leadership elections on November 16; however, Senate Democrats have yet to announce when they will hold their elections.
To access our full Senate analysis, please click here.
House Musical Chairs
With roughly 40 races yet to be called, Republicans are favored to reclaim control of the House, although with a tighter margin than anticipated. As of Thursday morning, House Republicans had secured 208 seats in the 118th Congress in comparison to 185 for House Democrats. Political pundits are still rating roughly 17 seats as toss-ups. So far, Democrats have flipped six seats while Republicans have flipped fifteen.
Impacts on Committee Leadership
Arizona: After redistricting made his seat more red, incumbent Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-AZ) lost to Republican challenger Eli Crane.
Committee Vacancies: Depending on how final margins impact committee ratios, a Democratic seat could potentially open on the Agriculture and Energy and Commerce Committees
Committee Leadership Vacancies: Rep. O’Halleran holds no full committee or subcommittee leadership positions.
Florida: In an incumbent vs. incumbent redistricted race, Rep. Al Lawson (D-FL) lost to Republican Rep. Neal Dunn (R-FL).
Committee Vacancies: Depending on how final margins impact committee ratios, a Democratic seat could potentially open on the Agriculture and Financial Services Committees.
Committee Leadership Vacancies: Rep. Lawson holds no full committee or subcommittee leadership positions.
Iowa: Rep. Cindy Axne (D-IA) lost her race against her Republican challenger Zach Nunn.
Committee Vacancies: Depending on how final margins impact committee ratios, a Democratic seat could potentially open on the Agriculture and Financial Services Committees.
Committee Leadership Vacancies: Rep. Axne holds no full committee leadership positions. However, she is vice chair of the Financial Services Subcommittee on Housing, Community Development and Insurance. The appointment of subcommittee vice chairs is at the discretion of the full committee’s chair, which is likely to be a Republican in the next Congress.
New Jersey: Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ) lost his race against his Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr.
Committee Vacancies: Depending on how final margins impact committee ratios, a Democratic seat could potentially open on the Foreign Affairs; Homeland Security; and Transportation and Infrastructure Committees.
Committee Leadership Vacancies: Rep. Malinowski holds no full committee or subcommittee leadership positions.
New Mexico: Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-NM) lost to her Democratic challenger Gabriel Vasquez.
Committee Vacancies: Depending on how final margins impact committee ratios, a Republican seat could potentially open on the Natural Resources; and Oversight and Reform.
Committee Leadership Vacancies: Rep. Herrell is vice ranking member of the Natural Resources Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources. The appointment of subcommittee vice chairs is at the discretion of the full committee’s chair, which is likely to be Rep. Bruce Westerman (R-AR) in the next Congress.
New York: On Wednesday morning, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chair Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY) officially conceded to challenger Assemblyman Michael Lawler.
Committee Vacancies: Depending on how final margins impact committee ratios, a Democratic seat could potentially open on the Agriculture; Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence; and Transportation and Infrastructure Committees.
Committee Leadership Vacancies: Rep. Maloney holds no full committee or subcommittee leadership positions.
Leadership Vacancies: Rep. Maloney was elected DCCC Chair in late 2020. Reps. Ami Bera (D-CA) and Tony Cardenas (D-CA) may run for the position. Rep. Cardenas previously challenged Rep. Maloney for the role.
Ohio: Rep. Steve Chabot (R-OH) fell to Cincinnati Councilmember Greg Landsman.
Committee Vacancies: A Republican seat is likely to open on the Foreign Affairs and Judiciary Committees.
Committee Leadership Vacancies: Rep. Chabot chairs the Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, Central Asia, and Nonproliferation. The next most senior Republican on the subcommittee is Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA).
Texas: Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX) won against Rep. Mayra Flores (R-TX) in the other redistricted incumbent vs. incumbent general election race. Having won the 2022 special election to fill a vacancy by former Rep. Filemon Vela (D-TX), Flores had only been in office for a few months.
Committee Vacancies: A Republican seat is likely to open on the Agriculture and Homeland Security Committees.
Committee Leadership Vacancies: Rep. Flores holds no full committee or subcommittee positions.
Virginia: Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA) lost her battle against her Republican challenger Jen Kiggans.
Committee Vacancies: Depending on how final margins impact committee ratios, a Democratic seat could potentially open on the Armed Services; Homeland Security; and Veterans’ Affairs Committees. Rep. Luria also served as a member of the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol, although this committee is unlikely to continue in the 118th Congress if Republicans flip the chamber.
Committee Leadership Vacancies: Rep. Luria serves as Vice Chair of Armed Services. Both parties tend to look to seniority to determine leadership. However, it is not a requirement, so it is unclear who would be next-in-line. Rep. Luria also chairs the Veterans’ Affairs Subcommittee on Disability Assistance and Memorial Affairs. Members of each committee bid by seniority for subcommittee leadership, but it is unclear who would be next-in-line because other subcommittee members are already serving as chairs of other subcommittees.
Similar to our Senate analysis, our House document is coded to reflect members who will not be returning in the 118th Congress. This includes Members who have announced retirements, given up their seats to run for another political office, or lost their primary or general election races. Contests that have yet to be called are highlighted in grey.
House Republicans are planning leadership elections for November 15, but votes may be locked down as soon as November 14. The Republican Conference vote on leadership may slip to November 15 or 16, primarily due to uncertainty of when races in California will be decided. House Democrats will hold their leadership elections on November 30, after Thanksgiving.
To access our full House analysis, please click here.
Looking Ahead
Even before Election Day, we knew there were going to be several new faces on Capitol Hill, as over 75 Members had announced retirements. Some committees in the 118th Congress will have a slow start getting on their feet with new leadership and new staff. As the final margins become clear and we learn more about committee ratios, we plan to update and expand these documents to include intel on committee ratios, tidbits on Members jockeying for spots on certain committees, and further insights on potential changes in subcommittee leadership.