Midterm Elections Preview: What to Expect in 2022
In the minds of some, the 2020 election is still not a settled deal, and yet we at Plurus are looking ahead to the 2022 midterm elections. With the entire House of Representatives and 34 Senate seats up for grabs, the future of President Joe Biden’s agenda and what legislation can be passed during the second half of his term hangs in the balance.
Historically, the president’s party has struggled, often losing seats, if not one or both houses of Congress. President George W. Bush lost control of Congress in 2006, when Democrats won six seats in the Senate and 31 seats in the House. In 2018, the “blue wave” saw Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) regaining control of the House of Representatives for the first time in the eight years since the Tea Party wave swept through the House, delivering it to Republicans in the 2010 midterms. The 2014 midterms were also difficult for President Barack Obama’s Democrats, who lost the Senate that year.
President Biden and the Democratic party seem poised to repeat this destiny in 2022 in the House, with the tides of redistricting working against them. However, a favorable map next year means that Democrats could gain seats in the Senate, with opportunities for pickups in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.
House Outlook
Democrats hold a very narrow lead in the House: 220 to 212. The three current vacancies in the House consist of two solidly Democratic seats and one Republican seat, so if they were filled today, the Democrats would have a 222-213 margin. While the ultimate outcomes of these upcoming special elections are unlikely to forecast much about the midterm elections, recent runoffs and special elections primaries might tell us more about the mood of the country.
For example, in the recent special election runoff in Texas’ 6th Congressional District, Jake Ellzey beat fellow Republican Susan Wright to finish her late husband Rep. Ron Wright’s (R-TX) term after he succumbed to COVID earlier this year. It is notable that as the Trump-backed candidate, Wright lost in this Republican-leaning district.
Additionally, on August 3, Ohio’s 11th and 15th Congressional Districts had primaries for their special elections. While these districts are solidly Democratic and Republican, respectively, their primaries could set the tones different wings of each party will take over the next year. The Democratic primary in the 11th District came down to Cuyahoga County Councilmember Shontel Brown and former State Sen. Nina Turner, with Brown coming out on top. Brown received endorsements and support from the moderate to liberal wings of the party, including Hillary Clinton, while Turner had support from the liberal to progressive wings, along with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). In the 15th District, Mike Carey won the Republican primary after being endorsed by former President Donald Trump, balancing out Ellzey’s win in Texas.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has identified 32 of its members as part of the vulnerable incumbent Frontline Program; it has also identified 22 seats—21 Republicans and one retiring Democratic Member—as hailing from "Districts in Play," a precursor of the popular Red to Blue program. Meanwhile, the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC), announced 47 Democratic seats they were targeting in February and added an additional 10 in May. These 10 seats are all in states that will receive reapportionment this cycle.
Following the 2020 Census, several states were identified for reapportionment:
It is still unclear how reapportionment and redistricting will change the landscape for the House of Representatives, as some states rely on their legislature to draw maps while others use commissions. The outlook for the House of Representatives will become clearer as states determine district lines.
Republicans are poised to pick up seats or even gain the majority next year. Recently, a poll was released that showed Democrats behind six points on a generic ballot in battleground districts. Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chair Sean Patrick Maloney recently said that Democrats would lose the House if the general election were held in August.
If control of the House flips, some have noted that since the Speaker of the House does not have to be a Member, President Trump could be put forth as a nominee, something Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) has suggested he would push for and off of which he has fundraised. This will likely drive talking points on both sides of the aisle as we get closer to Election Day.
Senate Outlook
In the Senate, Democrats are looking at a rosier picture, and potentially the opportunity to expand their razor-thin majority, a 50-50 split following the 2020 elections and 2021 Georgia runoffs. Key members of the Senate Democratic caucus are threatened by potential Republican candidates who have yet to announce a run. However, as of now, Republicans have struggled to recruit top-tier candidates in what pundits have identified as the most competitive races for Republicans to score a pickup. These include the Senate contests in Arizona (Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ)), Georgia (Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA)), Nevada (Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV)), and New Hampshire (Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH)).
Additionally, while every Democratic incumbent in cycle plans to run for reelection in 2022, the retirements of Sens. Pat Toomey (R-PA), Richard Burr (R-NC), Richard Shelby (R-AL), Rob Portman (R-OH), and Roy Blunt (R-MO) leave five Republican-held seats open. In these races, it also seems that Republicans are struggling to identify quality candidates. In many of these states, we could see contested GOP primaries, which may create opportunities for Democrats. The 2022 map may include additional open seats, as Sens. Ron Johnson (R-WI) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) have yet to declare they are running for reelection. Neither appear to be aggressively fundraising and delays in announcing their intentions would give new Republican candidates a late start.
Finally, while it seems unlikely at this point that Democrats could topple a Republican incumbent, it remains too soon to say whether or not Democratic pickups are out of the realm of possibility. For example, Democrats have a strong candidate in Rep. Val Demings (D-FL) to challenge Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL). If Democrats can flip the seat in Florida, election night is likely to be a bigger boon for Democrats than historical trends might suggest. However, our instincts tell us that control of the Senate is more likely to be decided in key presidential swing states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. A detailed breakdown of the Senate races to watch is included below.
Arizona
Arizona is one of two states that had special elections in 2020 whose victor is up for election to a full term in 2022. Last year, Sen. Kelly defeated Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ), who had been appointed to the seat by the governor after losing to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) in 2018. Sen. Kelly is finishing the last two years of the late Sen. John McCain’s (R-AZ) last term. Because of the quick turnaround from the last campaign, much of the infrastructure that got Sen. Kelly elected in 2020 is still in place and ready for his 2022 campaign. At the moment, most election forecasters rate the Arizona Senate race as leaning Democratic.
On the Republican side, things are unclear, as a long primary battle is taking shape. President Trump, preoccupied with the legally questionable review of ballots in Maricopa County, has not expressed a preference for any of the candidates, which currently include Blake Masters, Chief Operating Officer of Thiel Capital, and Mark Brnovich, Attorney General of Arizona. To make things muddier for Republicans, Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) has expressed interest in the seat. Current Arizona Governor Doug Ducey would likely be an appealing candidate to the Republican establishment, but he has been hamstrung in jumping into the race by his ongoing feud with President Trump over the 2020 election results. National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chair Rick Scott (R-FL) has said he is not worried that there is no frontrunner, but with a popular moderate incumbent like Sen. Kelly, Republicans are eager to coalesce around a leading candidate before next August’s primary.
Florida
Florida will once again be the center of political attention next year, with two closely contested statewide races featuring highly divisive Republican incumbents, and exciting woman Democratic challengers. Florida Agricultural Commissioner Nikki Fried will bring national attention and money to unseat Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL), focusing on his response or lack thereof to the COVID pandemic in his state, where cases of the Delta variant are currently surging. Fried faces current Democratic congressman and former Republican Governor Charlie Crist (R-FL) in a primary.
As noted above, Florida Democrats have also recruited Rep. Demings to challenge Sen. Rubio. As a longtime officer and former chief of the Orlando City Police Department, Rep. Demings will easily deflect any attacks from Sen. Rubio about defunding the police, an attack that some believe led to Democrat’s underperformance in the 2020 elections. Rep. Demings also has national recognition from being an impeachment manager for the first impeachment of President Trump. Regardless, Sen. Rubio is an incumbent, and a strong one with wide fundraising reach, so Rep. Demings will be fighting an uphill battle to unseat him.
Georgia
Sen. Warnock is a freshman senator up for reelection next year after being elected to finish former Sen. Johnny Isakson’s (R-GA) term. In January, Sen. Warnock beat Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) in the special election runoffs, making history alongside Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA). There is not yet a clear frontrunner to challenge Sen. Warnock next year, although Rep. Doug Collins (R-GA) and former Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) have both said they are not interested. However, possible challengers include Sen. Loeffler and former University of Georgia football player Herschel Walker, who has received support from President Trump. In just a few short months in Washington, Sen. Warnock has achieved national name recognition and a vast fundraising network. Like Sen. Kelly, he should also be able to build upon his existing campaign and organizing infrastructure on the ground in Georgia. Sen. Warnock could also be boosted if Stacey Abrams decides to run for governor next year.
Missouri
Missouri is one of three states with a retiring Republican incumbent where political observers believe the outcome of the 2022 contest will be significantly impacted by this retirement, with the others being Ohio and North Carolina. Sen. Blunt announced his retirement earlier this year, setting off a clamor on both sides of the aisle to identify the best possible candidate. Missouri Democrats quickly lost two top prospects, with former Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) and former Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander saying that they were not interested in running. Republicans are in no better shape, as the party is trying to thwart the candidacy of former Governor Eric Greitens (R-MO), who resigned the governorship in 2018 amid a sex scandal and blackmailing charges. Regardless, Greitens is an early frontrunner in the primary and could give Democrats a golden opportunity to gain a seat if they can solve their recruitment challenges.
North Carolina
North Carolina is another state with a retiring Republican incumbent, but one that seems much more likely to flip than Missouri or Ohio after a close Senate election there last year. In that election, the outcome was possibly tipped by a sexting scandal for Democrat Cal Cunningham, who lost to Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC). This time around, Democrats have been more diligent in their vetting and are lining up behind state Sen. Jeff Jackson. The National Guardsman gained statewide recognition for his updates to constituents during the COVID pandemic. His strongest competitor in the Democratic primary is Cheri Beasley, the former North Carolina Supreme Court Chief Justice who lost the statewide election for that position by a mere 401 votes in 2020. On the Republican side, President Trump has endorsed Rep. Ted Budd (R-NC), likely crowning him as the nominee. This race is very up in the air, and it will likely be hard to make a prediction one way or the other until the primary next year. However, Democrats have reason to be hopeful after such a tight race last year.
New Hampshire
In a state that has gone blue by narrow margins in most statewide elections in the past decade, elections forecasters frequently cite Sen. Hassan as one of the most vulnerable Democrats this cycle. Republicans in the state have launched an all-out effort to recruit Governor Chris Sununu (R-NH) to run for Senate. Governor Sununu, however, has spent months waffling, and could easily decide to run for a fourth two-year term as governor or retire from politics altogether. Governor Sununu might be delaying a campaign announcement to avoid attacks from Sen. Hassan, knowing that he will receive national funding the moment he does make an announcement. Governor Sununu is a moderate who never fought with President Trump but never got close with him either. His name recognition is almost universal in his state. Meanwhile, Sen. Hassan is likely to campaign on the bipartisan infrastructure bill that is currently being debated in the Senate. If he runs, Governor Sununu could give Sen. Hassan a run for her money.
Nevada
Nevada’s economy has been hit hard by the COVID pandemic, which means that Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto is relying on an economic boom there under the Biden Administration to help boost her re-election campaign next year. A key metric that her staff will be watching is the state’s unemployment rate, which was one of the highest in the country during the worst months of the pandemic. That number currently sits at 7.8 percent. Gone are the days of the Harry Reid political machine in the state Democratic party, as the leadership there was completely replaced by a Democratic Socialists of America-backed slate last year. The state party lacks legitimacy with many Democrats across the state, and the outgoing directors took many of the resources of the party with them when they left. Republicans have yet to recruit a candidate who is standing out amongst the field, but leadership is hoping that Adam Laxalt, former Nevada attorney general, will run.
Ohio
When Sen. Portman announced his resignation, many Democrats immediately began to fret about the possibility of a Sen. Jim Jordan (R-OH), but those fears were quickly alleviated when he announced that he would run for re-election to his seat in the House, probably hoping for a position in majority leadership or as a committee chairman in the 118th Congress. Democrats are expected to put tremendous resources into this state to try to elect Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) to the Senate, and Rep. Ryan will probably face Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel. It seems likely that Mandel will win here, but it remains to be seen if Democrats can launch a sizeable enough infrastructure in Ohio after unfortunate underinvestment during past cycles.
Pennsylvania
As Sen. Toomey will not be running for re-election next year, Democrats are hopeful they can flip this seat after narrow wins in statewide elections since 2016. Pennsylvania is a state where not having President Trump on the ballot may prove to be an insurmountable barrier for Republicans in 2022. On the Democratic side, a three-way primary has begun, with Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman (D-PA), state Sen. Malcolm Kenyatta (D-PA), and Montgomery County Chairwoman Val Arkoosh are battling it out. However, following announcements by Reps. Chrissy Houlahan (D-PA) and Madeline Dean (D-PA) that they would not seek the nomination, the Democratic primary is likely to become a crowded four-person race with Rep. Conor Lamb (D-PA) joins the race later this week. Lieutenant Governor Fetterman and Sen. Kenyatta are likely to battle for support from the left. Arkoosh has strong EMILY's List support, which helped Katie McGinty secure the Democratic nod against Sen. Toomey six years ago, but Rep. Lamb's moderate appeal could make him just the right candidate for the Keystone State. Republicans do not have any elected officials running to replace Sen. Toomey, but former Ambassador to Denmark Carla Sands is one of the frontrunners in the GOP primary. Without a higher profile candidate, Republicans may struggle to beat Rep. Lamb or Lieutenant Governor Fetterman, both of whom have significant national profiles.
Wisconsin
Democrats view Wisconsin as one of their top prospects for a pickup next year. Incumbent Sen. Johnson was a close ally of President Trump during his term in office and has made multiple conspiratorial and demonstrably false statements on the January 6 Capitol insurrection. Sen. Johnson is holding his party captive while he weighs the decision to run for a third term, even after promising that he would only serve two terms. Should Sen. Johnson choose not to run, Republican candidates might include Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI), co-chair of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission. The Democratic primary seemed like it could be a tight race until Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes (D-WI) threw his hat in the ring after gaining national recognition for his speech at the 2020 DNC. Other Democratic candidates include Senior Vice President for the Milwaukee Bucks Alex Lasry and the Treasurer of Wisconsin Sarah Godlewski.
Review of Polling for President Biden and Congressional Leaders
Although the polls were off again in the 2020 presidential election, current opinion polling can help to gauge whether or not Republican messaging is working. So far, this messaging includes highlighting increased enforcement interactions with undocumented border crossers in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California; rising inflation as the economy reopens following the COVID pandemic; and excessive government spending supported by the White House and Congressional Democrats, including as part of the American Rescue Plan Act, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, and a forthcoming $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill.
So far, President Biden’s approval rating has stood steady, even as Republicans have attacked him for different crises. Currently, the FiveThirtyEight average states President Biden’s approval rating stands at 52.6 percent, while his disapproval rating is at 42.9 percent.
In Congress, the public opinion ratings for both Democratic and Republican leaders are universally underwater. According to RealClearPolitics’ polling average, Speaker Pelosi has a 36 percent approval rating and 53.8 percent unfavorable rating. Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is not doing any better, with a 20 percent approval rating and 39.3 percent disapproval rating. In the Senate, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is looking much better than Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Leader Schumer has an approval rating of 31 percent to 41.5 percent disapproval, while Leader McConnell has an approval rating of 25 percent to 53.5 percent disapproval. From the polling alone, it seems that Speaker Pelosi will have a tougher time making a case to Americans in swing districts than Leader Schumer can do for voters in states with close Senate races.
Review of Democratic Accomplishments in the 117th Congress
In campaigning, Speaker Pelosi continues her strategy of, "money, messaging, and mobilization" to advance House Democrats. The second pillar of this effort will center on the accomplishments of the 117th Congress. Some of these accomplishments include:
Economic Development and Major Legislation: The American Rescue Plan Act was signed into law on March 11. The legislation included stimulus funds, an extension of unemployment benefits, an expansion of the child tax credit and earned income tax credit, COVID funding, and temporary changes to the Affordable Care Act (ACA), among other provisions. The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) Extension Act was also signed by President Biden in March 2021.
Efforts around Trump and January 6: Democrats and the 10 moderate Republicans who joined them will likely point to their second impeachment of President Trump. In a similar vein, the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6 Attack on the U.S. Capitol might be touted for its work, although Democrats will need to counter Republican messaging that the committee is purely political.
Racial Justice: The COVID-19 Hate Crimes Act, which allows the Justice Department to pursue hate crimes tied to the pandemic, became law in May. Additionally, President Biden signed the Juneteenth National Independence Day Act into law on June 17.
Infrastructure Investment: While it remains to be seen if the bipartisan infrastructure bill will make it across the finish line, enactment of this legislation would represent a huge win for Democrats, with funding for hard infrastructure projects likely to flow to every state and district. Further, if Democrats can stay united to pass a human infrastructure bill under reconciliation, this legislation will likely address many of the “kitchen table” issues that are priorities for the Democratic base.
The Trump Factor
No longer a resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and still banned from social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook, President Trump does not have the same level of reach he had just one year ago. However, he will likely remain a dominant figure in the 2022 election. Just as with the past few campaign cycles, candidates will either align themselves with or distance themselves from the 45th president, which will have a major impact on Republican primary races. We are already seeing this in such states as Alabama, where Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL), a longtime ally of the former president, is facing off against Katie Britt, a moderate and former chief of staff to Sen. Shelby, for the open Senate seat.
Inflation
A refrain among Congressional Republicans has been to point out rising prices and a growing inflation rate in the American economy. However, according to economic data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve, increasing prices over the last year have resulted from the economy catching up to where it would have been without the recession brought on by the COVID pandemic 2020. The current elevated rate of inflation is also tied to supply chain difficulties in many industries related to the pandemic that could be resolved in coming months. While some economists believe this correction as more businesses open outweighs the lower inflation that we experienced in 2020, rising prices on consumer goods could force a combination of fiscal policy changes from the Federal Reserve, as well as potential tax reforms in forthcoming legislation. Both Democrats and Republicans may be able to use economic trends to their political advantage, but crisp messaging will be required.
COVID
For the past 16 months, the COVID pandemic has been at the core of every public policy debate and a key issue for voters across the country. Right now, we see no reason to believe that COVID and new variants will be a non-issue next November. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently issued new guidance advising Americans to wear masks indoors regardless of vaccine status in counties with increased levels of COVID transmission, leading to some confusion. Republicans in Congress jumped on the new guidance, with Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) summing up his party’s feelings: “We need to send a loud signal. Enough of the masks. Enough of the lockdowns...We say no.” Republicans are bound to make the CDC a political issue next year if mask guidelines are still in place by then, and the progression of new waves of infection from Delta and other variants should be watched closely going into 2022.
China
Democrats and Republicans agree that China is the biggest threat to U.S. competitiveness, but each tries to paint the other as too friendly to China. The reality is that the policies of the two parties towards China on issues like trade and security are quite similar. China will be largely a rhetorical issue in the 2022 election cycle rather than one that produces a legitimate debate on policy. However, it will be important to watch the discussion on China to see how the Biden Administration will formulate China policy if Democrats lose one or both of the Houses of Congress next year. Candidates will likely focus their China discourse on cyberattacks, trade practices, and the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing.
Russia
The American relationship with Russia is at its lowest point since the peak of the Cold War. After the years-long controversy around Russian intervention in the 2016 election, Russian President Vladimir Putin followed a similar playbook in 2020, with no success. Similar to China, Russia poses a significant cyber threat to the U.S., and Democrats in battleground districts will likely try to paint their Republican opponents as close to Russia. In Congress, Republicans have made attempts to pivot towards being tough on Russia, much to the chagrin of Democrats. Russia will likely take a back seat to China in campaign rhetoric, but a well-executed cyber-attack or election interference operation could change that.
Climate Change
With the drought and wildfires in the West this year and coastal flooding seeing an all-time high in 2020, the impacts of climate change have been seen across the country. Senate Democrats have been saying they will include climate infrastructure in reconciliation this fall, likely including a clean energy standard (CES) championed by Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN), who says her provision can likely be cleared by the parliamentarian. Candidates on the ballot, specifically Democrats and moderate Republicans, will likely tie current climate events in their own district to policy proposals like a carbon tax.
Other Matters
There are several other issues that are likely to grow to be major campaign issues over the next year:
Voting Rights — In January 2021, Georgia enacted a sweeping election law that impacts voting hours, drop boxes, early voting, and voter identification. Democrats have rallied against this bill, saying it disproportionately impacts communities of color. Stacey Abrams has become one of the most recognizable faces for this issue. With Governor Brian Kemp (R-GA) up for reelection in 2022, voting rights are likely to maintain political salience.
Criminal Justice Reform — Criminal justice reform efforts have been championed by Sens. Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Tim Scott (R-SC), with the latter up for re-election next fall. In the House, Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries (NY), whose star has continued to rise, is also a leading voice on criminal justice issues.
Labor — Over 40 percent of the global workforce is considering leaving their job this year in what is being dubbed, "The Great Resignation." This public sentiment is tied to the pandemic, which has brought about a reprioritization of workers' career path and work-life balance, as well as changing preferences in hybrid or virtual work. As a result, topics like unemployment benefits and labor relations could become campaign talking points in the coming months.
Things to Watch in 2021
With the midterms over a year away, there are several political events to keep an eye on in the coming weeks:
California Recall — California Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA) faces a recall election on September 14. While recall petitions happen somewhat often in the Golden State, this is only the second vote to ever occur. Recent polls have found Californians to be evenly split over whether to remove the sitting governor from office and turnout in the recall vote could say something about what we might expect next November.
Virginia and New Jersey Odd-Year Statewide Elections — Incumbent New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy (D) is likely to win reelection, and pollsters characterize Virginia as leaning Democratic for former Governor Terry McAuliffe (D-CA). The legislative and gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia will be good barometers for messaging and turnout for the midterms.