Political Insights: House Themes Heading Into the 2020 Election Season
With less than 14 months to go before the 2020 elections, we’re seeing some electoral themes already beginning to emerge, particularly on the House side.
Democratic House Primaries: Thus far, 102 House Democrats face primary opponents. They fall into three categories:
There are a handful of what could be potentially difficult races.
A second category includes about ten Democratic members that face opponents either endorsed by the Justice Democrats or are raising serious funding.
For the remaining races, it’s too early to say if serious challenges are going to materialize. Potential primary candidates are feeling emboldened after the wins by some of the more progressive freshmen members of the Democratic caucus .
The DCCC is focused on sending a message to rank and file members that it wants to offer the right kind of support. Primaries divert resources, and the real issue comes down to protecting Frontliners versus protecting Dark Blue districts. If the choice is between the two, it becomes a choice between those members that “get you the majority,” and those that “shape the kind of caucus, or the type of majority.” As a result, some members in the darkest blue districts view themselves as Primary Frontliners, often cosponsoring or signaling support for policies such as Medicare for All and the Green New Deal in order to fend off primary opponents.
Battleground Seats: The DCCC has identified 39 battleground (red à blue) seats thus far, and they believe they have recruited 1st tier candidate for 29 of them to date; they’re still working on the other 10. Candidate recruits will gather together in DC October 21-25.
Looking to specific states and districts, TX, where the DCCC is heavily investing in the Latinx community, presents a significant opportunity for Democrats in 2020. The DCCC is working also to expand battlegrounds in the FL-16, VA-5, OH-12, MI-3, and MT-at large. There are currently 34 GOP districts in better shape than the NC-9, where a strong Democratic candidate narrowly lost – twice – to a Republican by a few thousand votes. Speaking of North Carolina, the state went +12 for Trump in 2016, +16 for congressional Republicans in 2018, and this year has already had two Republican wins (both in districts previously long-held by other Republicans).
Retirements: The obvious expectation is that there will be more retirements on the Republican side in the coming months. We believe it’s not just that Republicans think they’re going to remain in the minority, but some of them are weighing a number of other complicating factors as well, such as:
When they ran last time, many Republicans thought there was a chance that they’d have a president of their own party they could work with, and for a number of them, that hasn’t turned out the way they’d hoped.
Now some Republicans are thinking if they run again, they could have the same president or a president of the opposite party to deal with, neither of which, in some cases, is appealing.
We know of at least one Republican member deciding to “hang it up” because he couldn’t quell his concerns of conscience. He believed that in order to win, he’d have to take positions he couldn’t defend to his grandchildren and people he loves.
We also know that at least on one occasion, a House Democrat approached a Republican colleague to work together on some issues, and he said, “I can’t work with you on environment or guns and win reelection in my district.”
Of course, a handful of retirements may come as a result of term limits in various leadership positions, but it could also be that some members decide to come back because they get to move up.
Democratic Frontline: Frontline is the DCCC’s battletested program to ensure Democratic members of Congress from the most competitive seats have both the resources and cutting edge information they need to execute effective reelection campaigns. Last cycle, the DCCC’s Frontline members had a 100% win rate, and 33 of 36 of them outraised the GOP incumbent they replaced. This year, the DCCC has elevated 44 members to Frontline. Many of them are freshmen members, and many are from districts President Trump won in 2016. Sixteen of those members have a million or more cash on hand, and between them, they hosted over 1,000 public events during August, including 250 town halls. Most Frontliners are in a good primary position. Furthermore, the GOP currently faces a recruitment challenge against these same Frontliners, many of whom are hand in glove fits for their districts.
Suburban/Rural Voters: Significant party realignments are happening under the Trump Administration, with suburban voters trending more Democratic and very rural districts moving increasingly Republican. We anticipate suburban districts may come increasingly into play, including potentially 6-7 in Texas alone. Democrats picked up two TX districts in the last election, but the feeling was they just missed winning several very close races, and in others, they may not have had candidates that were a perfect match for the district. TX is increasingly seeming like NJ, PA, and Southern CA of the last election cycle as a place where Democrats may have opportunities to flip districts.
We’ve heard some members are “doing all the right things,” raising money, positioning themselves well in their districts, and demonstrating some differentiation from their Democratic colleagues, but perhaps the key to some of their reelections is more about being in suburban districts.
Fundraising: The DCCC outraised its counterpart, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), by $21 million in 2019 to date. It has 60 field managers across the country, as well as active volunteers who are registering voters, canvassing for candidates, and otherwise assisting the DCCC in its efforts to preserve and expand the House’s majority in 2020.
We look forward to continuing to share political tidbits with you as we near the 2020 election season.