Political Insights: 50 Days Until the Iowa Caucus
With the smell of jet fumes scenting the final policy negotiations ongoing in Washington this week, and the new year heralding a swift turn to the presidential campaigns, we wanted to share our latest observations, trends, and analyses of the 2020 elections as we head into the holidays.
Democratic Presidential Primary: Iowa’s Winner(s)
The Iowa caucus is fewer than 50 days away, and more than half of the likely caucus goers -- 60% -- have said they are likely to change their minds within that time. Mayor Pete Buttigieg has the momentum in Iowa now, but elections past have seen leading candidates implode. Who could forget Howard Dean’s famous scream in 2004? The New Hampshire primary is just eight days after the Iowa caucus, and many voters are still undecided. This is not an issue of great concern, as voters in New Hampshire tend to focus on a favored candidate in the two weeks leading up to the primary. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina could potentially have four different winners. That could enable Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT) and others to hold out, causing tensions between the middle and the left to persist within the party. Now is the time to resolve those tensions and mobilize party support behind a solid competitor who can present a challenge to President Trump in the general. That brings us to our first big question: can Vice President Joe Biden continue to maintain his consensus establishment candidate? Could Buttigieg emerge as the insurgent candidate? Or will it be someone else?
Most Iowa voters have two priorities for a Democratic in a candidate: someone who can bring the country together and someone who can beat President Trump. Strong polling for Vice President Biden, Mayor Buttigieg, and even the rise of Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Mayor Michael Bloomberg suggests that voters are drifting toward a middle-lane candidate to meet this criteria. The winning candidate from Iowa traditionally has an 80% chance of being the nominee: then-Senator Barack Obama in 2008, Senator John Kerry in 2004, and Vice President Al Gore in 2000 would all confirm this trend. However, looking back at the last eight caucuses, the person leading in November did not win. It is worth noting that parallels between Mayor Buttigieg and 2007 candidate Obama, who began gaining ground for Iowa in November 2007, are being drawn. These comparisons are being embraced by the Mayor Buttigieg campaign.
A marked level of enthusiasm indicates a record turnout for Iowa. The record to beat is 236,000, when President Obama won the caucus in 2008. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Mayor Buttigieg, and Vice President Biden appear to be the top three contenders ahead of February 3. Senator Warren has the necessary organization, but her Medicare for All rollout has eroded some support. She currently has 2600 points up in Des Moines. Meanwhile, Mayor Buttigieg has funding and a presence on local television channels. Vice President Biden, for his part, has the endorsement of former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack and the support of the older Iowa electorate. Mayor Bloomberg could struggle on Super Tuesday if Vice President Biden or Mayor Buttigieg emerge as winners because he’s coming to fill the already occupied middle lane.
While Mayor Buttigieg may be seeing a surge in recent polling, it is not clear whether this surge will last. The most viable poll is the CNN-Des Moines register poll. It reports 57% of likely caucus goers who name Senator Sanders as their top candidate say their minds are made up. In comparison, only 27% of November poll leader Mayor Buttigieg’s supporters say the same. Some political strategists charge this allows Senator Sanders to focus on growing his base of supporters, rather than ensuring that his supporters aren’t swayed by the other candidates. If Senator Sanders falters, however, the feeling is that some of his voters could go to Mayor Buttigieg. Vice President Biden could be helped by the unviable candidates. Candidates on the evening of the caucus must meet a viability threshold of fifteen percent in order to receive at least one delegate from each precinct. If a candidate falls out, Vice President Biden could be the recipient of their supporters.
However, adding a new layer of complexity to Iowa’s tried and true practice is the state adopted new rules this year opening the possibility or even probability that multiple candidates could win. The Iowa Democratic Party will publish two raw vote totals, a first and final grouping, and the delegate numbers from caucus night. That means that one candidate could win one or both of the delegate counts but lose the popular vote.
New Hampshire to Copy and Paste or Chart Its Own Path?
Sometimes New Hampshire rubber stamps Iowa, and other times chooses to diverge from Iowa’s outcome. Expectations for Senators Warren and Sanders in New Hampshire are high. As candidates from neighboring states, one of them should be the winner, but both are expected to do well. Senator Sanders is favored to win over Senator Warren, but Mayor Buttigieg is coming on strong there, too. Back-to-back wins in Iowa and New Hampshire could build the momentum Mayor Buttigieg has already been accumulating to secure the nomination. Senator Warren is slipping, but she demonstrated the ability to bounce back from the DNA testing issue and may still be able to recover from her announced Medicare for All plan. She and Senator Sanders might have topped out at this stage--they could maintain their positions, but are likely to drop. Vice President Biden has a good team but not a lot of excitement. He needs to fall in the top three candidates in New Hampshire to continue being considered competitive. He has a lot of old guard and should expect a tough road ahead. Every election is about the future, and it’s difficult for Vice President Biden to represent the future or the change voters are looking for. To his credit, he is beloved. In the last two weeks leading up to the primary, a lot of focus will be on the affection voters have for good old Uncle Joe. The question is whether regional or familial attitudes will be enough for voters, or if their desire for a brighter future will lead them to the younger Mayor Buttigieg, a candidate who can challenge the status quo without driving the party too far to the left.
Keep an Eye on the Middle Lane
Among the second tier candidates, Senators Klobuchar and Booker are worth watching, and Bennet is also not totally out of the running in NH. Prior to her exit, Senator Harris had been a contender but focused perhaps too much on being a national candidate. Some contend it was a mistake for Senator Harris not to go to New Hampshire, and that mistake cost her the competitive edge. Senator Klobuchar has run a pretty lean campaign, so she has the cash needed to stay in. She also has a regional edge, being from a neighboring state. Senator Klobuchar also has some high profile endorsements, namely former Vice President Walter Mondale and the gamut of political leadership in Minneapolis and Minnesota at large – Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, and members of congress are among her endorsers. Senator Booker needs to make it to the Louisiana stage, and Senator Harris’ recent departure could give him the boost he needs to get there. Senator Booker would win New Hampshire if they had ranked voting. Senator Harris’ departure helps both candidates, with Senator Booker appearing to be the second choice for many of her supporters. It’s unusual at this stage to have so many prominent activist type candidates on the sidelines. There is room for movement, mostly in the middle lane among Mayor Buttigieg and Senators Klobuchar and Bennet.
Tune in for the Debates
Giving candidates a final opportunity to introduce themselves before the initial votes occur, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) announced recently it will sponsor four presidential debates in key early voting states in January and February. Those debates will take place January 14th in Des Moines, February 7th in Manchester, February 19th in Las Vegas, and February 25th in Charleston.
The bottom line: whoever Democrats select as their nominee needs to be able to beat President Trump. This is a central imperative for the party, so the candidate with voter confidence in his or her general electability will have a significant advantage. Vice President Biden’s supporters are the most confident in their desired candidate to meet this bottom line. Mayor Buttigieg, for all the support he has accrued recently, does not have this same level of confidence. He may very well be the 2019 parallel to President Obama, but in 2007 then-Senator Obama did not have an incumbent President Trump to challenge. Stay tuned in these next several weeks – dramatic things can happen.