Political Insights: 75 Days Until the Iowa Caucus
While political conversations over Thanksgiving dinner may be taboo in some families, we find it hard to believe tonight’s Democratic debate, the country’s distraction with the House impeachment inquiry, and the fast approaching presidential primaries rule out the possibility of political chatter as a side for your turkey. With the Iowa caucus just 75 days away, we wanted to share our latest observations, trends, and analyses of the 2020 elections as we head into the holiday week.
Democratic Presidential Primary: Is There a Frontrunner?
To date, it feels like each of the top tier Democratic presidential candidates has enjoyed a moment in the spotlight. National polls suggest Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) are best positioned heading into primary season. More local polls however, such as those showing South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg with a significant lead in IA and NH, have created a perception the Democratic nomination is still very much up for grabs.
In fact, some make the case that polling in early primary states, including IA, NH, NV and NC, now reveals there may not be a clear frontrunner heading into Super Tuesday voting on March 3. This could explain why we see Democrats who have been on the sidelines, like former MA Gov. Deval Patrick and former New York City Michael Bloomberg, jumping into an already crowded field.
Without a serious Republican challenger, President Donald Trump is building a behemoth of a campaign, both in terms of organization and fundraising. At this point in the cycle, we anticipate the Democratic primary could drag into the summer, challenging the ultimate Democratic nominee to build a general election campaign that is on par with the president’s campaign. There might be some lessons for Democrats in history.
Since the start of his campaign, we have heard Vice President Joe Biden compared to 1984 Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Walter Mondale. Both candidates launched their campaigns pledging tax cuts for the middle class. Like Vice President Biden, Vice President Mondale tried to position himself as “an old fashioned Democrat” seeking to uphold the policies of past Democratic administrations. He also ran with the support of labor. Although some questioned Vice President Mondale’s desire to be president, he was largely embraced as the Democrat best positioned to challenge then-incumbent President Ronald Reagan.
At the start of the 1984 Democratic primary, Vice President Mondale won 48 percent of the vote in the IA caucus. Meanwhile, Sen. Gary Hart (D-CO), who was viewed as a “new ideas, contemporary Democrat” with policy proposals sometimes lacking in substance or explanation, finished a distant second in IA, with just 16 percent of the vote. Following landslide victories for Sen. Hart in NH and VT, he and Vice President Mondale competed neck and neck. Sen. Hart won 16 primaries before Vice President Mondale eventually clinched the nomination in July.
Perhaps this should be a cautionary tale for 2020 Democratic presidential candidates. In the days ahead, we will continue to assess how a long, contested Democratic primary race, and its potential to highlight differences between moderate and liberal Democrats, impacts the party’s prospects for defeating President Trump next November.
2020 Presidential Election: Assessing the Prospects for Defeating President Trump
While we reserve the right to refine our analysis once Democrats have selected their nominee, we foresee a handful of states whose Electoral College votes will be crucial to determining the next president. These states generally fall into three buckets:
“Blue Wall” States Trump Won in 2016: These states include PA, MI, and WI. At the moment, Democrats likely have the best shot of winning back PA, although the prospects change depending on who becomes the nominee. WI will be Democrats’ biggest challenge.
Competitive States Trump Won in 2016: This category includes states like AZ and FL. Democrats are feeling optimistic about their prospects in AZ following Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (D-NV) 2018 victory. We believe FL will continue to be a key battleground.
Competitive States Clinton Won in 2016: These states include MN, NV, and NH. Sec. Hillary Clinton won each of these states by a small margin in 2016. While we have not seen Republicans making significant inroads in these states, the Trump campaign has already identified NH as a top target.
There are a few other states historical trends dictate should be monitored in the year ahead. First, recent developments in NC, including a new congressional map, a competitive Senate race, and a very close special election in the state’s 9th Congressional District following a narrow loss in the contested election, indicate we could see candidates campaigning heavily in NC.
Additionally, we will be watching a number of states that have traditionally voted for Republicans, but are more recently experiencing a growing divide between suburban voters increasingly backing Democrats and rural voters providing even greater support for the GOP. These states include IA, OH, GA, and TX. If any of these states turn blue on Election Night, the Democratic nominee likely will have already won the Electoral College. Also noteworthy, no Republican presidential candidate has won the White House without OH.
Senate Battleground States: Chamber Control in Play
Control of the Senate is definitely in play. As a reminder, Republicans hold 53 seats, which means Democrats will need to pick up three seats to flip the chamber. This presumes Democrats do not lose any seats and win back control of the White House; otherwise, Democrats will need to pick up four seats to control the chamber during President Trump’s second term. While Democrats have fewer seats to defend, the class of Republican senators in cycle was last up for reelection in 2014, a strong year for the GOP. At this point, we are sensing Republicans have a slight edge, based on the specific seats they must defend.
We see two offensive opportunities for Senate Republicans to maintain their majority. The first is in AL, where Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL) is likely the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent. After winning in 2017 by a slim margin in a special election with atypical turnout and a weak Republican opponent, Sen. Jones may be an underdog, although this is difficult to call given the robust Republican primary. Notably, former Attorney General Sessions has indicated he will run for his old seat. However, his favored status could be easily upended by a presidential tweet. AL Republicans also have strong candidates in Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-AL) and Tommy Tuberville.
Additionally, Senate Democrats will be on defense in MI, where Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) was one of just a few freshmen Democrats successful during the 2014 Republican wave. His opponent John James is a strong fundraiser, has close ties to the Trump Administration, and is thought to be a rising star in the Republican party. This race will be a priority for Republicans.
In 2020, Democrats will have a number of offensive opportunities of their own. In fact, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) is prioritizing races where it believes it has a fair shot at defeating Republican incumbents in ME, CO, AZ, NC, and IA.
For example, Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is expected to face her toughest campaign yet, especially as her Democratic opponent, speaker of the ME House of Representatives Sarah Gideon, is viewed as fairly moderate and is well-liked in the state. Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO) won in 2014 by a narrow margin. Democrats have made significant gains in CO since then and have a strong candidate in former presidential candidate Gov. John Hickenlooper. AZ Democratic senatorial candidate Mark Kelly is also well positioned to take on Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) and has raised more money than some Democrats running for president. In NC, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) is facing a strong primary challenger in Garland Tucker. NC Democrats also have a strong candidate in Cal Cunningham, a veteran and former member of the NC Senate. Although Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) maintains strong approval ratings, Democrats believe they can be competitive in IA, where they were successful in flipping House seats in 2018.
Senate Democrats view a second tier of potentially competitive races as including KS, MT, KY, two seats in GA, and TX, although some of these states may be more likely than others to become tossups depending on which candidates eventually enter these races. In the aftermath of Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-GA) announcing his retirement, Democrats are focused on recruiting candidates that could tip the electorate in this increasingly competitive state. It also remains to be seen whether term-limited MT Gov. Steve Bullock can be convinced to exit the presidential primary and jump into the Senate race, which has a mid-March filing deadline. We believe Gov. Bullock remains focused on the IA caucus. However, if he does not secure one of three tickets out of IA, some persuasion may lead him into the MT Senate race.
Underpinning the current political dynamics at play is the tightrope Senate Republicans might be forced to walk on impeachment. Should impeachment proceedings consume the Senate calendar in and after January, we could see both Democratic senators who are running for president and vulnerable Republican incumbents stuck at their desks during a time that is critical for fundraising and campaigning. While the impeachment saga is far from over, we expect Republicans who are in cycle to toe the party line in order to avoid primary challenges and disappointing the GOP base. Simultaneously, we expect Democratic challengers to use impeachment to tie their opponents to President Trump.
Control of the House: Democratic and House Roadmaps to the Majority
Depending on how you tally vacancies, the GOP needs to flip 17 seats this cycle to win back control of the House. Because many of the districts Democrats flipped in the 2018 midterms have been gradually moving left, preservation of the House Democratic majority is not guaranteed. However, Democratic leadership is engaged in several lines of effort aimed at protecting their most vulnerable members and maintaining Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) speakership.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is focused on ensuring the reelection of 43 “frontliners.” Democratic candidates have sustained strong fundraising and have viable campaign infrastructure in place. Of the 43 Democratic incumbents considered most vulnerable in 2020, 33 had more than $1 million in the bank by the end of Q3 2019. Further, all but six had more cash on hand than their leading challenger. This is especially important given a number of these races will play out in some of the most expensive media markets in the country.
Democrats are also invigorated by President Trump’s approval ratings in these districts dipping significantly below the percentage of the vote he received in 2016. To the contrary, polling for Democratic frontliners, including 34 New Democrats, has been fairly positive. While additional retirement announcements are expected, to date, Democrats have encountered only four retirements, paling in comparison to 20 retirements for the GOP.
From our perspective, House Democratic leadership is executing a coordinated strategy for managing its impeachment inquiry. We understand the DCCC undertook six focus groups in swing districts across the country to inform Democrats’ approach. This research found Americans are hearing the news on impeachment, but may not be paying close attention to details. Generally, voters are not outraged because while they feel it was wrong for President Trump to withhold aid to Ukraine for personal political gain, they believe this behavior is routine in politics. That said, we see Democrats sharing simple facts with their constituents, asserting values, and supporting an investigation, while also attempting to focus on issues that matter most to voters, such as healthcare.
Meanwhile, House Republicans are also seizing on the impeachment inquiry to attack Democrats and energize their base, especially in districts where the GOP is seeking to defeat Democratic freshmen who ran as non-partisan problem solvers. This strategy is based on the House GOP’s belief the 31 Democratically-held House seats won by President Trump in 2016 are their path back to the majority.
At this snapshot in time, we see potential stumbling blocks that should make House Republicans wary. First, in the 31 districts won by the president in 2016 currently held by Democrats, President Trump only won with more than 51 percent of the vote in just eight. In most cases, the president only won on a plurality. The decline in President Trump’s approval ratings since then should also not be discounted. Finally, House Republicans have work to do on candidate recruitment, as there are priority districts, for example MN-2 (Rep. Angie Craig), NJ-3 (Rep. Andy Kim), NJ-11 (Rep. Mikie Sherrill), and PA-8 (Rep. Matt Cartwright), where GOP challengers have yet to be identified.
As the 2020 campaign season moves forward, we will be looking to certain states as bellwethers for what we might expect on Election Day. First, we will be looking closely at IA where, as previously noted, Democrats grew their delegation in 2018. Next, we will be keeping an eye on NC, where recent redistricting could yield results similar to the Democratic pickups we saw in PA last cycle. We will also be monitoring Democratic victories against incumbents or for open seats following a number of GOP retirements in TX, as well as tight districts in MN, such as MN-7 (Rep. Collin Peterson), which is thought to be the most Republican district represented by a Democrat.
State-Level Contests: Impacts on the Political Future
While most of America is focused on presidential and congressional elections, it is impossible to understate what is at stake in 2020 state-level contests. The 2020 census will lead to reapportionments of congressional representation, with redistricting slated to begin in 2021. That said, wining control of state legislatures will be critical to ensuring each party has a role in redrawing the congressional maps and influencing policymaking for the next decade.
Already, we have seen MD and IL Democrats make headway on gerrymandering. Democrats also stand to benefit in VA, where they took total control of the state legislature earlier this month. It is our sense MN, WI, PA, and VT also present redistricting opportunities for Democrats, while TX, FL, GA, NC, and OH are key on the Republican side.
Unlike 2018, which saw 36 gubernatorial contests, there are just 11 governors’ races in 2020. Competitive races, potentially including those in NH, VT, and WV, could provide further evidence of shifting political demographics and greater insights into voters’ response to the Trump presidency.
British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once said a week is a long time in politics, and the 2020 elections are still a year away. The political circumstances can change in an instant, so we look forward to sharing future political insights. In the meantime, we hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving, potentially with a side of politics!