Countdown to Election Day: Six Months to Go
Today marks six months until Election Day, and the battle for congressional control begins in earnest, with primaries in four key states that will test whether Democrats can turn the president’s low approval ratings to their advantage, or if the favorable map, especially in the Senate, will sufficiently protect Republican leadership. We are keeping a close eye on five issues that rise to the top of importance in the next six months, and another five political issues that could impact this election, but, first, a quick reminder about the electoral map and a peek at the primaries.
The Senate electoral map for 2018 continues to heavily favor Republicans. While they have a single vote majority in the upper chamber, Republicans will defend only nine seats this year to Democrats’ 26. On the other side of Capitol Hill, however, Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to win control of the House, and they appear likely to surpass that number. Turnout for midterm elections tends to favor Republicans, and midterms traditionally favor incumbents. Moreover, in the past 21 midterms, the president’s party has lost an average of 30 seats in the House and four seats in the Senate. That number is higher for presidents with an approval rating below 50 percent, and President Trump has maintained low approval ratings throughout his presidency, though his job approval numbers have improved in recent months. In the six times in U.S. history that the president’s approval rating was under 50 percent going into the first-term midterm elections, the average loss was more than 43 seats. However, Washington these days is looking a little less conventional than usual. To date, 74 members of Congress have resigned or will be leaving their positions at the end of the 115th Congress – seven (six Republicans – Sessions, Strange, Cochran, Corker, Flake, and Hatch – and one Democrat – Franken) in the Senate and 67 (47 Republicans, 20 Democrats) in the House. According to RealClearPolitics’ 2018 generic congressional vote, the average Democratic lead over the past three weeks has been 6.3 points, less than half of the 13 point lead in December. The strength of the economy and Congress’ passage of tax reform are likely the cause of the change, though overall congressional approval remains low.
While the direction of the country numbers have improved from six months ago, the “two Americas” theory still can be aptly applied, as voters across the country view the world in vastly different ways. Some of the special elections have further demonstrated this point, with opposite outcomes in Pennsylvania and Arizona. The Democratic base is energized. Since Trump was elected president, Democrats have won Virginia and New Jersey governorships, an Alabama Senate seat, a Pennsylvania special House seat, about three dozen state legislative seats, and control of the Washington State Senate. The 2017 Virginia gubernatorial election probably best demonstrates the enthusiasm of the Democratic base. In addition, Democrats in Kentucky solidly flipped a state legislature seat last month in a district Trump won by 49 points in 2016. So far, Democrats seem to be running successful elections by focusing on kitchen table issues rather than more national debates or President Trump. And why not? Democrats greatly dislike the president; Republicans favor him; and Independents do not really seem to want to be reminded of him. However, while Democrats are optimistic about their chances of winning a majority in the House, the Brennan Center concluded this spring that the post-2010 electoral maps favor Republicans, especially in swing states, so that Democrats would need to win the national popular vote by almost eleven points – the largest margin in a midterm since 1982.
Dozens of House Republicans who previously had easy reelection campaigns are facing credible, self-recruited, and well-financed Democratic opponents. Many of these vulnerable Republicans represent suburban communities where the president won in 2016 but has since lost favor. In the 56 districts currently held by Republicans the Cook Political Report calls “Lean Republican” or worse, the leading Democratic candidates include 31 women, 16 veterans, and 14 former Obama Administration officials. These are primarily outsider candidates with no voting record to defend, but also potentially without significant vetting. As we have seen in some of the special elections, from Alabama to Pennsylvania, good candidates are as important as helpful maps. We are likely to see further evidence of how far that statement goes during today’s primary elections, particularly as we see the outcome of the West Virginia Senate primary, where there is growing concern about former Massey Energy CEO Don Blankenship.
The midterm elections are officially underway, but it remains to be seen whether they will be a referendum on President Trump or any number of issues.
Congressional Primary Dates
March 6: Texas
March 20: Illinois
May 8: Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
May 15: Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon, Pennsylvania
May 22: Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky
June 5: Alabama, California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota
June 12: Maine, North Dakota, Nevada, South Carolina, Virginia
June 26: Colorado, Maryland, New York, Oklahoma, Utah
August 2: Tennessee
August 7: Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Washington
August 11: Hawaii
August 14: Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, Wisconsin
August 21: Alaska, Wyoming
August 28: Arizona, Florida
September 4: Massachusetts
September 6: Delaware
September 11: New Hampshire
September 12: Rhode Island
November 6: Louisiana
Congressional primaries are scheduled today in Indiana, West Virginia, Ohio, and North Carolina, though primaries do not wrap up until late fall, and we are still a long way to the November general elections. In the meantime, here are five policy and five political issues to watch closely:
Policy
Trade: Addressing the complex issues surrounding trade agreements, including related to NAFTA, China, tariffs, and quotas, could benefit Republicans, though considering the potential negative impacts for the agriculture industry, outcomes of the trade debates cut both ways to some extent. Parties are still trying to reach agreements in principle in the near future, but it is unlikely that everything is resolved before the end of this Congress.
Immigration: Republicans could make inroads on this issue, as President Trump and some congressional Republicans may want to use immigration issues, such as DACA the border wall, and the Muslim ban, to drive a wedge in Senate races against vulnerable Democratic incumbent Senators Joe Manchin (D-WV), Joe Donnelly (D-IN), and Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND), as well as in some House races where the GOP is defending seats. Immigration issues also could potentially impact GOP districts with rising Hispanic populations, especially with uncertainty still surrounding DACA. Senate Democrats are primarily from states with higher immigrant populations than their Republican colleagues, save for a handful of Democrats from red states, almost all of whom are up for reelection this year.
Economy: This issue, perhaps more than others, could cut both ways. Tax reform, falling unemployment numbers, and the recent economic expansion are all advantages to Republicans, while Democrats will continue to make fairness arguments. This may be a winning issue for Republicans in 2018, but it remains to be seen if this will continue to be the case in 2020. At the moment, Republicans are successfully messaging the passage of significant tax reform legislation as a major win for the middle class. They are also pointing to trends of declining unemployment and a rapidly growing stock market as proof that individual and business confidence in the economy is climbing. If the tax bill results in Americans seeing an average $80 increase in each paycheck, the rhetoric of tax reform benefitting corporations and the wealthy could ring untrue. For many Americans, such an increase adds up in meaningful ways. However, in response to the tax bill, companies appear to be opting for bonuses instead of raises, and as more voters realize this, combined with the fact that the package adds significantly to the deficit, the impacts of tax reform may lend themselves to a populist Democratic presidential message in 2020. According to a May Morning Consult report on midterms, despite security issues topping the policy issue of importance for Republicans, the economy takes priority for voters across all key Senate contest states.
Healthcare: While Obamacare was once thought to be a negative for Democrats, Republicans’ failure to repeal the Affordable Care Act while continuously undermining Obamacare may result in rising premiums this fall, making healthcare one policy issue that likely favors Democrats in November.
Gun Violence: While the Fiscal Year (FY) 2018 omnibus appropriations bill included provisions to incentivize federal agencies and the military to upload records into the background check system for purchasing guns, permit the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to conduct research on the causes of gun violence, and boost grant programs for improving school security, more than 6 in 10 Americans still fault Congress and President Trump for not doing enough to prevent mass shootings. Gun violence in schools is especially energizing women and young people, so we will be watching how it impacts the November elections. Despite the continued two America’s narrative, we believe public opinion on this issue will advantage Democrats.
None of these issues breaks 100 percent in favor of one party or the other. Furthermore, depending on the district, each issue will be perceived in very different ways.
Politics
Mueller: Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 US elections, including potential links between the Trump campaign and the Russian government, continues. Mueller is moving quickly, using the full reach of federal power, and it remains to be seen what comes next, as well as how the president and congressional Republicans will respond. Given that both sides of the aisle consider the investigation to be political, we are comfortable including this item in the political category.
Pelosi: On the Democratic side, Speaker Paul Ryan’s (R-WI) retirement increasingly invites the question of how much Republicans can make House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) an issue. The first time Republicans successfully made the Speaker an issue was against Speaker Tip O’Neill (D-MA). Though they made a similar attempt with Newt Gingrich (R-GA), Democrats have not been as successful in making an election about the Speaker of the House. Republicans are sure to continue to make Speaker Pelosi an issue; it remains to be seen how effective this strategy will be.
#MeToo: Speaker Pelosi recently made statements about the importance of her leadership position in light of the fact that she does not believe that there should only be “five white guys at the table…I have no intention of walking away from that table.” Furthermore, more women are running and organizing than ever before. In the last ten months before the 2016 election, nearly 1,000 women contacted Emily’s List about running for office or getting more politically involved. This time around, that number has grown to over 36,000, with almost 9,000 ready to help, too. The rise of the #MeToo movement has immensely strengthened women’s political participation. Continued White House controversies may put even more fuel on that fire; what that does for suburban white women voters will be interesting to watch. For example, there are 23 House Republican seats in districts Hillary Clinton won in 2016, and most of them are suburban. Yet so far, President Trump’s popularity with his base, including his strongest supporters, evangelicals, has survived every possible attack.
Youth Participation: The Parkland, Florida shooting ignited youth participation. Young people across the country staged school walk-outs, and the spring “March for Our Lives” was widely attended and covered. Democrats are likely to use climate change, net neutrality, early employment, and the affordability of education and housing to attempt to propel young people to become more involved in elections and the public debate. We will be watching to see if the GOP can take the edge off these issues.
Anti-impeachment: President Trump’s beliefs and actions are strongly supported by some, but his favorability may not be transferred to other Republican candidates. On the other hand, a Tom Steyer-led impeachment or agenda obstruction effort could potentially increase Republicans’ turn out in the off-year election.
As with the policy issues above, these issues could play out differently in red and blue districts, and it is hard to tell which of these five might emerge as influential factors in the midterm elections.